Trading cycle - the trigger switched to buy with price and RSI crossing above the MAs. The problem is, as explained above, none of the tools show support for this buy. The trigger produces false signals in sideways patterns like flat or a triangle and this are the suspected patterns mentioned above. Now is waiting for the situation to be resolved.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I was watching for c wave to complete a flat. So far it works and now waiting for confirmation for reversal or not.
If we do not see reversal possible pattern is bigger flat(yellow) and the weaker indexes DJI,NYSE,RUT completing triangle.
Intermediate term - it looks like a correction is running and currently wave b. Wave c lower should follow to one of the support levels and Fibo retracement.
Long term - I have the feeling the bull market from 2009 is over. I was expecting an ugly sideways correction for at least a decade, it seems it has began in 2018 and so far it did not disappoint.
One leg was completed in March 2020 and now X or B running.... the cycles create really nice echo(the circles) which is only confusing where the major high is.
If Jan.2018 was the high for the bull market and 4y cycle high than in October we should see the top of the second 18m cycle high and most likely X wave.
If Sep.2018 was the high for the bull market and 4y cycle high than wee should see the second 18m cycle high in 2021 and most likely B wave.
What we see currently is bad for the bulls - instead of decline for 2/V or b/B we are seeing very shallow sideways move for 20w low, which points to important high in October.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the message is we are in the middle of a correction.
McClellan Oscillator - retracing after slightly oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - retracing, below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - it looks like corrective retracement with one more spike to follow.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Hurst cycles - another 2-3 days higher and it will look like 5w cycle high. If we see reversal on Monday than it is just 10d high and final decline into 20w low has started.
Week 15 for the 20w cycle. It will be strange if it is already behind us at week 12 or 14.
thanks Krasi, flexibility is an important trader trait. I look forward to your six-monthly preview that you post every 6 months. Especially now that there seems to be a major topping process going on
ReplyDeleteExactly changing your view if necessary is important - there is no right or wrong and there is no place for ego.
DeleteI thought no one pays attention to this updates:) I am too lazy lately to start writing it:)
In the next few weeks I am in vacation so I will have the time to post it.
I believe your summer vacations have lined up with beginning of selloffs for the last 3-4 years. So was just curious what dates exactly you will be on vacation? Thanks!
DeleteFrom today 3 weeks.... looking what is going on it looks like exactly the time for the correction:)
Deletenice :) which index looks like the best short?
Deletep.s., have a great vacation!
If march 2020 was 4 years cycle low, was it also 9 years low?
ReplyDeleteThis is a theme for a long theoretical discussions.
DeleteThere is guys which stick to the theory and does not care about higher lows - for them it is 2002-2011-2020.
For others the lows matter and I have seen that deviating from the theory gives good results like counting shorter cycles 3,5-4 years. In this case the important lows are 2016 and 2024 shorter 9y cycles and 2020 only 4y cycle low... and the pattern fits very good in this cycle models.
I thought 2020 will be the prominent low, but now I think 2024 will be more important... at least from trading point of view.
Thanks again Krasi for your update. Just an opinion, I think we should not rule out that the bull market is behind us. We can be in wave b of 1 of an ending diagonal now. Would you rule out such a possibility?
ReplyDeleteSorry I meant to say we should not conclude that the bull market is over. Wave 5 can be an ending diagonal. I would very much like to hear your thoughts on this.
DeleteIt can not be excluded as an option, but counting ED without seeing 3-4 waves of it usually ends with wrong forecast. Many indexes show it clear that they are done with the bull market examples - DAX,NYSE. If the SP500 diverge.... I doubt it, rather 5 tech stock masking the real pattern.
DeleteHey Krasi, I too was looking forward to the long term update so please do post it.
ReplyDeleteOk, I have started writing it... I will delay it for a few weeks to see what happens in July for a better forecast. It will be helpful to see the next step instead of trying to guess.
DeleteSome people thinks this 20w cycle is formed by 3 daily cycles, the last one started the 29 of june
ReplyDeleteMaybe if it is longer like 22-24 weeks. We will find out in the next few weeks.
Deletein the eur/usd, do you still think in 1.04 this year?
ReplyDeleteThe same price action like stocks - doing nothing. Most likely bigger corrective pattern and 1.04 next year.
DeleteDo you have any analysis that shows a major low in Aug/Sept/October? or is this next low in the next 2-3 weeks the major low for the foreseeable future?
ReplyDeleteThis analysis has a bottom in August https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtfQfEt5EtM . I was wondering maybe we go down in 5 waves starting from June 8th, the 1st wave and 2nd wave are completed or near completion.
DeleteIt is explained above, I do not see major low... possible important high in October.
Delete3170 first it looks like
ReplyDeleteKrasi you think Nat gas may have bottomed? Buffet is buying here it seems.
ReplyDeleteIt is possible, there is divergence on the weekly chart. The problem is both cycles and EW are very difficult to analyze for NG. Worst case is one more low.
DeleteYes it's a mess. Monthly also has bull divergence, this is why I've been asking lately. Thank you
DeleteOther wave up... Co!
ReplyDeleteThere is no other wave up the same is completing.
Deletewhat happened to your flat idea? March was A, April to June was B and now C that takes us into August/September
ReplyDeleteI takes too long and most likely there will be no test of the low for 4y cycle low. Write about that 2 weeks ago.
DeleteSo where does S&p stand short term with the surge over night?
ReplyDeleteIn other wave Up.
DeleteNo change, there is no other wave up.
DeleteHi Krasi. How are you counting the waves in NQ now? I don't think it's an ED anymore, but it's sure is in the topping region price-wise.
ReplyDeleteProbably w-x-y.... I am trying to count impulse but exactly in the middle where the 3 of 3 is awful overlapping mess.
DeleteYa, it's just a mess. I'm comfortable shorting the rest, but will be a bit more cautious with NQ. It's also difficult to envision NQ not correcting much when SPX moves into its ICL; I mean NQ is up more than 60% in this IC and it's right at the long term bull channel in log scale.
DeleteOk it is possible to count impulse if you count extended fifth wave - it is completing v of 5 and 1to3=5 so it fits.
DeleteIn this case I would say this is the fifth wave for NDX from 20009.
inminent cycle high of 5 weeks and also it will be 10 weeks and 20 weeks highs
ReplyDeleteThe high was in January and June.
Deleteit's over, ded duck
ReplyDeleteSo, what you're saying is that the move down from Feb to March lows was an impulse and C wave for a flat that formed in 2018? That is very quick C wave compared to the months long move prior A and B waves.
ReplyDeletenevermind, I just saw your chart
DeleteAugust will be 2700
ReplyDeleteDefinitely at a top the trolls are running wild again:)
DeleteIn October you will see 2100, remember me
ReplyDeleteOctober should be a high lets say November:)
DeleteHello Krasi what do you think about crazy Tesla price?
ReplyDeleteThe way they move higher the same way they will fall. It is never different, it is always the same.
DeleteThis is the time for short the Nasdaq
ReplyDeleteNASDAQ going to 11000
DeleteWhy? What is so special? Because it is round number?
Delete11,100 is Fibonacci
DeleteI'm going to be the odd one out and say 2400 by end of August
ReplyDeleteEverything is possible.... it will not surprise me. Too many corrective waves predicting the pattern is extremely difficult and surprises all the time.
DeleteWhy October should be a high?
ReplyDeleteBecause the cycles pointing to a high early October.
DeleteThey don't stop the printing, there is a lot of money free
ReplyDeleteMaby the short I open is a mistake
ReplyDeleteno
DeleteThere is two legs higher with the same size - you can count it a-b-c or w-x-y or impulse with extended fifth wave it does not matter the end result is the same.
DeleteRemember.
ReplyDeleteYou say high un october-november.
Ok???
This is how the high-to-high count looks like.
DeleteHi Krasi, what would be your next step? For now, I am guessing its just wait and watch but at what point would you add to the short or get out of the current short?
ReplyDeleteI added yesterday because of RSI divergence on the hourly chart.
DeleteAt the moment there is signs for a top, but no confirmation:
EW possible completed a-b-c higher - impulse lower is confirmation waiting if it will happen or not.
Trading trigger warning for reversal close below the open yesterday - close below MA10 is confirmation waiting if it will happen or not.
your call on UVXY was good.. ~$29.50
ReplyDeleteAt ~$32 after hours..
Krasi please a comment on Oil: is it time for the short? And if it is time what is your target price for the downside?34 or 29?
ReplyDeletePerfect will be one more spike to complete ED, but it looks like it is struggling a lot.
DeleteIf you want to short you can try in portions not all in now.
Minimum should be 30.
Thank you
DeleteThe trading setup for a short trade - https://invst.ly/rdis3
ReplyDeleteThere is possible zig-zag a-b-c completed with a=c and reversal with diagonal as w1 impulse.
If we see only corrective pattern below resistance followed by another turn lower below support we have reversal. Possible entries close to resistance with tight stop and/or after breaking below support.
the more time that passes by the more likely that the Feb-March 2020 correction was a C wave of a flat that began in 2018.
ReplyDeleteTime has nothing to do with this. According to the books it is not a flat.
Delete29 of june was 14 days low cycle?
ReplyDeleteYes, possible 20d cycle low.
DeleteTextbook triangle on russell, no wonder no volume/follow through yet. E should happen by tomorrow https://invst.ly/rdrmp
ReplyDeleteKrasi is gold a false breakout?
ReplyDeleteYes, completing huge corrective pattern into 9y cycle high - looks like 4-5/c/y/Y
DeleteWhoo! I'm short that puppy 😍
DeleteNATH in the NASDAQ
ReplyDeleteJust on time - it could be easily the top of the bull market from 2009.
DeleteKrasi, don't you think we have to see 4 and w5 in the Nasdaq?
ReplyDeleteDay chart
I do not see room for waves 4 and 5
DeleteCycle perspective of the trading setup shown yesterday - https://invst.ly/re29-
ReplyDeleteFrom the low on 29th of June until Tuesday the red bar we have 7 trading days or 10d cycle. The next one is running day 2.
If we see a brake above the upper range the next 10d cycle is heading higher 3220-3230.
If we see break below the lower range the next 10d cycle is making lower low which is bearish and with high probability the longer term cycles turned lower all the way up to the 20w cycle.
Krasi, maybe 15 june was 10w low, so there is more time for a big move down in August with a 20w low cycle lasting 22-23 weeks
ReplyDeleteIt looks too long to me..... more likely shorter like 4 weeks lower.
DeleteNasdaq is going to 10900, the top canal
ReplyDeleteOr completing 5 of 5 with divergences.....
DeleteWhy do you use the RSI as the bottom oscillator for your charts of the S&P Futures? I've used MFI and the Ultimate Indicator for the same purposes. Just curious on our thinking. Thanks for your work.
ReplyDeleteRSI is very useful trend lines,divergences and helps with counting waves.
DeleteThis two are very similar.
Krasi, my targets for the next weeks are from here 3200 - 2800(20w low in end july o early august) - 3400(october)
ReplyDeleteThis is what I am looking too.
DeleteNICE "hanging man" candle printing on the NASDAQ daily, at an ATH. Just need confirmation (close below real body) for reversal signal.
ReplyDeleteSorry, August till October doun like march
ReplyDeleteYeah, a "canal" - LOL.
DeleteFutures going higher, looks like it was a correction right now
ReplyDeleteHave a little faith:)
DeleteI pray to the bear gods
DeleteReminds me of the start of this year when it kept grinding and grinding higher and higher. Small pullbacks followed by higher highs made. No doubt you'll be right in the end, but I can see this just pushing higher from here, bit by bit.
ReplyDeleteBecause of the printing machine, they eat the shortist's
ReplyDeletedidn't notice this trendline till now on NQ https://invst.ly/rejvn
ReplyDeleteWe can see blow off in the canal from 2009, and there is a very nice canal from April that the top is 10850 for this week
ReplyDeleteNQ in the love canal
DeleteLady S, the proper word is "channel", not "canal".
Deletei like canal. Going to use it.
Deletehopefully a blow off top today to 10870 on NQ to get this over with https://invst.ly/renb3
ReplyDeleteBLOW IT NQ!
ReplyDeleteRUT,NYSE,DJ - the triangle looks complete.
Deleteyay! will short RTY, but wait till near close in case it chases NQ
DeleteS&P 3180 in the doun trend line
ReplyDelete