Trading cycle - the trigger is on buy. The price tested MA10 making 10d cycle low and RSI tested the MA. Most likely we have completed daily cycle with length 31 trading days. Now the next one running at day 9 - it looks weak so far I expect to fail as left translated and it will decline for the final leg of the correction and for a few weeks to complete the 20w cycle.
Alternate we have 20w cycle low late June... because usually the 20w cycle consist of two such daily cycles.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I am watching a-b-c pattern with complex b wave as w-x-y. If we see the move higher continue longer than another 1-2 days or higher around 2300 this is in fact bearish and it is most likely Z wave the red count.
Intermediate term - expecting c wave to complete correction. Lower target for the decline at least to 38% retracement and closing the gap makes more sense. Again if you are bullish you do not want to see continuation higher the red path. This will mean the move from the March low is complete and it will decline until November.
Long term - currently I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Watching this pattern at the moment as most likely... but with corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded. Because of the NDX I added this "or X" if we do not see correction it will not make it higher until October. We will see a top now.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are in sell mode.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - up and down in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - time for the next spike?
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think we had 10d low this week and now heading into 40d/5w cycle high. After that the indices should turn lower for 5w cycle low to complete the 20w cycle.
Week 16 for the 20w cycle. We should see decline for 2-3 weeks to complete the cycle. Alternate we have 20w cycle low late June... this will be very bearish development.
Hello Krasi and thanks for your works: i have a questioni about Oil? After this trading range in the coming data could break 41 to next resistance at 49 or could turn lower to 30$ area according to all indicators and time cycles?
ReplyDeleteThe price is corrective, it looks tired after the sharp retracement. I do not see conditions for strong rally. More likely like stocks completing the pattern and lower.
DeleteThanks Krasi. Would appreciate if you could share the NDX completed 5 waves up count from 2009 that you mentioned (which points to a top now).
ReplyDeleteIn arithmetic scale counts even better from 2002 - https://invst.ly/resaj
DeleteAnyway we have divergence on the monthly chart between waves 3 and 5.
For the NDX we should not see bigger correction just completing w5 that is why the alternate option today.
Hi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteWhat is the reason for this - "if we do not see correction it will not make it higher until October. We will see a top now."
With correction the indicators and the EW count will be reset and the indices continue higher into October. If we do not see this late June was 20w cycle low, the move from March will complete w-x-y or z... and with high probability NDX the bull market from 2009.
DeleteThank you. If it continues higher, the chart shows continuation higher for a very short duration. If 20w low was late June, shouldn't it run higher longer?
DeleteNot necessarily, I am talking about the same pattern like Jan-Feb - shorter bullish 20w cycle the next one making slightly higher high and reverses. The same cycle echo like on the weekly chart, but lower degree for the 20 cycle Jan-Feb -> June-July.
DeleteIf we see two more weeks higher and/or 3300 this scenario will be activated.
Hi Krasi. In your 2nd chart, I believe the y=w/b target has already been met in the cash chart. In futures chart, yes we do have much higher to go, /ES=3216. Am I right?
ReplyDeleteYes, second leg for zig-zag y/b to be completed properly.
DeleteIn that case, we'll likely make a higher ICH then. Also I don't think NDX has seen the 20d low yet since late June.
DeleteKrasi, so now you're looking at the bottom at end August? About 22w this cycle?
ReplyDeleteIf we see the final leg of correction starting next week the end July.
DeleteIf it takes longer or moves higher like 3300 probably the low was the end of June.
I think this current 20w cycle are 3 daily cycle so first week of August for the 20w low
ReplyDeleteI understand nice structure, text book 20w cycle, makes sense... but I see signs that we can get fooled. Stay open minded as I wrote above if we see two more weeks higher and/or 3300 with very high probability we have the same cycle setup like Jan-Feb.
DeleteIf you are right then what can we expect the next weeks?, 3300 and after this?
ReplyDeleteIf this theory plays out most likely test of the low in November.
DeleteThe Feb-March decline looks like the 2008 decline except of course in a smaller scale even the recovery is fitting with he 08-09 recovery. We stopped right around 78.6%. I wouldn't be surprised if we run until mid-next year after a pullback in the coming weeks
ReplyDeleteAnd TSLA to 10000... not even close 2009 started with impulse now we have corrective move.
DeleteIf it runs higher until mid next year the next 18m cycle high it will be a huge flat and now A completing and test of the low following.
If SP goes down lows of March, the current 4 year cycle will be left translated and will not see ath for many years. I think that only 7 months going up is liitle time for a 4 year cycle
ReplyDeleteExactly you get it the bull market ended in 2018.
DeleteThere is no rule how much it should move higher.... it is all your personal perception.
The next 4y cycle high is in 2022 - which path is more likely? Even more vertical for another 2,5 years or it is a lower high?
For me March 2020 is 4 year high
ReplyDeleteI do not know how a low is a high.....
DeleteDo you think in november for a low for the 40 weeks cycle low?
ReplyDeleteYes.
DeleteKrasi,
ReplyDeleteThe short term drop is over after the recent break upwards from the June low. If we were to have continued lower, it should've happened after the classic abc break. But instead of the big c, the c was truncated and we broke above the 10 dma. Additionally, after breaking upward any move to test the 10 dma was immediately met with surge in buying. That is not bearish at all. I would suggest the scenario of the continued upward surge to ATH or slightly passed it is way more probable than moving lower in two days. I would guess in two days we go a little lower and that will bring the short sellers in then another surge to push the indexes higher. Afterall, the short sellers are the reason for violent move upward.
I guess my point is why take a position if its 50/50? Why not wait until the price comes to you and take the position on the 10dma break?
- Kali
I do not see it so bullish. Who says take a position? Two weeks ago I said it is wait.
DeleteFor short it is wait for the trigger to flip to sell. For long I do not have support from market breadth it is clear sell and it does not show signs of strength.
Sorry, I mean february 4 year high. March 4 year low :)
ReplyDeletetrendline high is working so far https://invst.ly/rf60j
ReplyDeleteand again. daily bear divs now on NQ https://invst.ly/rffqk
DeleteBlow off, out of the canals, the dayly one from mid April and the long one from 2010, we can't fight against the fed and trump, they buy everything with a lot of money, liquidity, liquidity
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/QumxOQganfo for you while your shorts get a nice gain over the coming months!
DeleteLady S when will you start control your emotions and start watching the charts?
DeleteDo you see now how stupid your statement sounds? What happened to the liquidity?
The "Oracle of 'Canals'" has spoken.
DeleteThe vix is go higher, interesting
ReplyDelete"no mas" - roberto duran
DeleteThere’s 11,100 in NASDAQ, as stated. Markets are defying divergences but that can continue for weeks
ReplyDeleteI admire your fantasy....
DeleteI hope you're correct about a move down from here, I enjoy being short. But I like making money even more so I won't be trading what I think should happen or take bias
Delete"defying divergences".... indeed
DeleteMM will continue to destroy retail shorts
ReplyDeleteThe stupidity of the retail longs is unbelievable..... they are holding the bag again and they are cheering again.
DeleteRetail shorts are fueling this parabolic move up
DeleteAny data to support it? It sounds like nonsense to me. We have clear retail mania long not short which is the usual sing for the top of a bull market.... only NDX all the other made a top in 2018 already.
DeleteNDX finally leading lower. Never thought I'd see it do that again.
ReplyDeleteQuick call "the fed and trump, they buy everything with a lot of money, liquidity, liquidity"
DeleteWe can not see NDX in red, it is not allowed:))))))))
Lol I know thats a joke
DeleteMonthly bear divs on NDX now :)
DeleteThe "canals" are being drained as we speak.
DeleteAs I wrote the pattern has to be completed with wave c impulse - https://imgur.com/a/HBIW5eL
ReplyDeleteIf we are lucky the trend line and 38% retracement will hold for 4/c and we will see one more high.
Of course at the top the usual load of bullshit....
Nope, reversal.
DeleteDo you think this is medium term reversal just like shown in the short term chart? If so, would you add to your short once MA10 is broken? To me its a perfect, double top at ~3230 with strong divergence and looks like reversal. VIX also had very interesting behavior today where it didn't drop in the morning but rallying hard now on reversal.
ReplyDeleteYes, with high probability this daily cycle is failing as left translated as expected.
DeleteYes, I will add to short position. I added today long volatility - rally 50 points and VIX not reacting this was obvious fake rally.
Double top and like the longer cycles on the weekly chart we have as I call it echo for the 20w cycle - tops Jan-Feb now June-July.
whoo adding more shorts on any bounce. Many thanks Krasi
ReplyDeleteNot much follow through :(
ReplyDeletebounce should be expected. BTD still the play until it isn't.
DeleteI think it should unfold slowly not with a crash so it is not a surprise... all we have to watch is if there is impulse lower to confirm reversal or not.
DeleteKrasi what us your uvxy target
ReplyDeleteI do not know at the moment, watching VIX to reach 50.
DeleteI will make a guess between 45-50.
DeleteThats what im thinkin
DeleteKrasi, now that Nat Gas has had a correction, do you see an ABC taking place (starting C soon?)? or was that an impulse and retracement (1-2)? There's a gap at the initial spike and I'm not sure how to read it. thank you for any advice
ReplyDeleteIm expecting a big drop into aug20
ReplyDeletePossibly 2750 ot lower
It will not surprise me....
DeleteBoy, is TSLA's price/movement just pleading for a torpedo (or two/three) below the water line or what? Yesterday, 40,000+ Robinhood retail "investors" bought into the stock. What goes up (logarithmically) will come down, quickly.
ReplyDeleteIf late june was 20w low, what can we expect the next weeks ?
ReplyDeleteWe are seeing it already 2-3 weeks higher. More interesting is if late June is 20w low and the price bake below it than it should continue lower until November.
DeleteThe 20w high that you expect in october is not necessary a higher high, it can be a lower high maybe 2 of C
ReplyDeleteI am thinking the same probably lower high... at the moment it is just theory and watching for further signs.
DeleteI hope the futures will push another 20-30 points higher, it will be so perfect - https://invst.ly/rg55m
ReplyDeleteDay 27(theoretical length 28d) for the 5w cycle high right on schedule another perfection.
If 29 june was 20w low, how do you count the 5w and 10w cycles low?, I think they are very shorts
ReplyDeleteThis is just alternate options. If it is confirmed later I have no problem with the length, it will not be the first time.
DeleteEur/usd at 1,14 what is the next?
ReplyDeleteI would say lower like 1.10-1.11
DeleteKrasi, 3225, it's finish?
ReplyDeleteMaybe, maybe not... we will know when we see what follows.
DeleteDon't you think they are going to 3300, end of canal?
ReplyDeleteWhat I think is posted above - no change.
DeleteSo, they arrive to your point?
ReplyDeleteShort S&P, I hop it's not a mistake, 3231
ReplyDeleteNo one knows the future, everyone can make a mistake they are inevitable. Important is how will you react when it occurs. That makes the difference between successful traders and those who will fail.
DeleteYou have a lot to work on your emotions and stat trusting the charts.
I did short because of the vix, that looks positive, and Nasdaq is over bought
ReplyDeleteDeja vu.... the same like Monday second try for impulse to complete the pattern - https://imgur.com/a/noBY4bM
ReplyDeletequasi canal on /ES looks like 3250ish target. NQ no longer driving the market. RTY has broken up. The whole thing is confusing
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rghgj
DeleteThe destination is not clear, I can't see the graph
ReplyDeleteCan you send by the invst?
ReplyDeleteinvst is not so good with the cash index but like this - https://invst.ly/rghuq
DeleteDo Cycles become more right-shifted in a bull market with each new cycle?
ReplyDeleteNot the cycles itself are more right translated, but there is more right-shifted cycles.
DeleteThank you, it looks we are in wave 2 of 3 of 5
ReplyDeleteThe problem is the futures hat complete set of waves so it could just turn lower without new high.
DeleteKrasi,
ReplyDeleteI am looking at the futures market and it is very weak. I expected a rise but appears to be under pressure from the open. Looking like it will test this week's low at least. Then maybe June's low? Divergence building and my bullish bias has now flipped.
Generally I would like to see synchronized action across all indexes but I am bothered that oil isn't synchronized as it usually is. What are your thoughts on synchronization before big moves?
Thanks for your thoughts,
Kali
My opinion is that the market is so smart it found a way to synchronize the patterns. Now all indices including the weaker one are synchronized and have the same pattern like SP500 including the EUR/USD.
DeleteWe have everything in place for synchronized wave c lower into 20w low.
Wave c to 2900 for 20w low at first week August?
ReplyDeleteThis is the most obvious outcome. We will know when we see how the move lower develops.
DeleteKrasi,
ReplyDeletelooks like a completed and b on the way. Then hopefully c by tomorrow. The move down appears to have started but it is so choppy. Feels like a - b before c.
- kali
The vix is very weak
ReplyDeleteI think gold topped
ReplyDeleteIt will be perfect if we see one more pullback and high to complete impulse c/y/B.
DeleteAll this big B wave and 9 year cycle high - https://invst.ly/rgy-5
I have the feeling all this gold prophets will fail again.
About NG I am wondering if this is w2 of ED for c/Y.
DeleteA low with three wave is not very likely.
Thanks, yeah today looks like a reversal on ng
DeleteUNG setting up for a very nice bullish divergence on the weekly chart versus pretty much every indicator I employ. Going long on an 8.89 test.
DeleteNo one knows the future, everyone can make a mistake they are inevitable. Important is how will you react when it occurs. That makes the difference between successful traders and those who will fail.
ReplyDeleteYou have a lot to work on your emotions and stat trusting the charts.
YOU APPLICATE THIS, KRUSTY.
THE LAST YEAR YOU FAILED, AND THIS YEAR YOU FAILED EQUAL.
DE JAVU!!!
Hilarious
DeleteReally hilarious - maybe I was the one counting fantasy third wave while all the others 99,9% was expecting 2200.....
DeleteThe sheeple live in their parallel universe completely out of touch with reality.
The market gives them second chance and what are they doing?
I am not a big fan of failed fifth waves, but maybe this time this is the case - https://ibb.co/sb3LY0J
ReplyDeleteIf you look at NYSE or RUT they have completed properly the impulse with higher high where SP500 have the failed fifth wave. We will know tomorrow if we see third wave lower.
Overnight certainly seemed corrective on futures
DeleteLook the OBV, there is a lot of money enter, that because they are not going down
ReplyDeleteIn the last 5 years OBV did not show any indication that a bottom or top is coming.... just follows the price action. Why should I care about useless indicator?
DeleteThanks a lot
ReplyDeleteWhat do you say about this
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sponser.co.il/ForumFiles/5c83bed7-f531-48ea-bb4c-d5e96860ae40.png
Krasi, I'm a bit confused. Since late March your analysis has been saying revisit S&P 2,200. Your charts have said down, down, down. Yesterday you mocked a guy for criticizing you, and you implied that you've been saying up all along when the rest of the world was expecting a double dip. (Am I interpreting this correctly?)
ReplyDeleteI'm not trying to troll, but I am trying to learn. It seems as if your current analysis is S&P going to 2,900 in the near future, and back up to S&P 3,300 by October. This would represent a 38% retrace. Is 38% retrace a minimum, or what are the chances of a 50% retrace? Again, not trying to troll, but it seems as if you're sending different messages. Thank you for your time.
My friend, this is trading. The market is dynamic and you adjust your expectation all the time depending on the market movements. It's an exercise of coming out with "if x happens, then y, otherwise z" statements with one possibility having higher odds than the other based on your analysis, back-testing, etc. A trader would then modify these statements along the way depending on price movement. If you have someone who can tell you exactly what will happens with certainty, then please let us know so that we can all become rich.
DeleteIt's silly at times to listen to people who takes such an absolute view on the market, and just telling Krasi off when he's wrong. Every traders gets it often it's how you manage your risk and trade: your entries, stops, exits and position sizing that will determine if you'll become a profitable trader or not. These blogs only gives us a framework to come out with these "if else" statements. Everyone still needs to do their own due diligence if you want to be successful.
It was an irony in 2019 and 2020 I was explaining that we will see 30% correction around 2200 when literally everybody were explaining how the indices will go much higher.... well the herd was wrong.
DeleteThen forecasting test of MA200 around 3000 and retest of the low - the retest did not play out, very unusually short 40week cycle.... analysis changed a month ago.
No one can tell if the decline will be 38% or 50% - this are the two most likely targets and accordingly shown on the chart.
wave 3 is here! Happy black friday everyone! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3Pw4t_Falo
ReplyDeleteLook at the vix, there is no fear
ReplyDeleteWhen there is no fear why it is not in the 12-15 area instead above 20?
DeleteWhy it is making higher lows three in a row?
We will see eur/usd at 1,06-1,08 in november?, move down like the indexes?
ReplyDeleteMore likely higher into October after correction.
DeleteI still think it's the start of 3 look at russel. Ok stops are in ☺️
ReplyDelete