Weekly preview

Higher as expected, but RSI is showing strength so I would say this is rather w3 not w5. My tools say it is more likely to see one more pullback(4/c/Y) and marginal higher high(5/c/Y) to complete the move from the March low with 40w cycle high and market breadth divergences.

We have a confirmation that the whole move is correction. The bulls did a good job this week the last chance for impulse was destroyed w3 the shortest wave, not that such chance was existing in the first place.
Not if you ask clowns like Avi Gilburt raping EW again to fit it in his narative - the market will crash up to 6000:))))) How that worked the last time?


TRADING
Trading cycle - still buy and very stretched in time. I suspect something unusual is going on(trading and Hurst cycles not in sync), but lets see if it will be confirmed.
This trading cycles are closely correlated to Hurst cycles, but not always exactly the same. And now is one such occasion. For trading counting from top to top it is one trading cycle, but from cycle theory perspective I think it is way too long for one daily cycle which is not even completed. It is more likely to have two 10w cycles 31+XX and 20w/40w cycle high, which means in July we have a low - 20w low.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the only possible count is corrective and most likely w-x-y with c=1,618xa(red). Two more waves 4 and 5 needed to complete the pattern. Alternate is what I have shown last week 5/C... I just preffer to see RSI divergence.

Intermediate term - RSI there is no divergence and showing strength so the odds for 3/c are higher. I would wait for divergence on the hourly and daily chart or impulse to the downside to confirm reversal.

Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently watching the pattern below wave a or x, but with corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.
We have another corrective wave - most likely scenario it is part of a bigger corrective pattern less likely wave X and another corrective pattern to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new divergences and market breadth does not follow the price at all.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting toward the zero line, I expect pop above it before we see a top.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal and divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal and divergence.
Bullish Percentage - flat with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oscillating around 75 with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - bottoming as expected, grinding higher and ignores the indices.
Advance-Decline Issues - broke the trend line connecting the lows so the next move up will be the top.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 20d high as expected and next week we should see decline into 20d low. There is high probability the next 20d high could complete the 40w cycle high.

Week 5 or 9 for the 20w cycle. For now I follow the both counts and watch the further price action. We are close to 40w cycle high.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Eight for a setup on the weekly chart - another week needed for finished setup. The previous wave W almost managed to complete setup too if you ignore the slight violation of the rule in middle:)

Weekly preview

Slow price action for another week, which is information too. The market feels tired waiting for a few tech stocks to complete with their bubbles.
I was searching for a pattern which allows more time to the upside. ED was one option, but I think it run out of time.... unless we have not seen the 20w low or we see 200 points decline for a week, which is not very likely.
This week I am showing another option even more bizarre:) One really ugly triangle, which I do not know even if it is valid, but it fits perfect with time and works for most of the indices so I could not ignore it.


TRADING
Trading cycle - still buy signal. Other indices like NYSE,DJ,RUT closed below MA10. Both cycles high-to-high and low-to-low very stretched. Waiting to see how a decline lower will look like. I have the suspicion the tech stocks messing up the pattern.
RSI compresed between the trend lines it is getting interesting.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - other indices and cycles suggest we have w4 so expecting higher next week to complete the pattern.

Intermediate term - the ugly triangle count in yellow. The other option w-x-y which is not much different, but different timing.
By the way for the triangle count if you measure time a+c=b which is interesting.

Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently watching the pattern below wave a or x, but with corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.
We have another corrective wave which can be wave a of bigger corrective pattern or wave X and another correction to follow most likely zig-zag Y lower.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - deteriorating further... moving lower and divergences, which is typical behaviour around tops.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, but turning lower.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - I think it is bottoming.
Advance-Decline Issues - broke the trend line connecting the lows so the next move up will be the top according this indicator.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - difficult to count the daily cycles with the price action from the last two weeks. I would say we have a high 20d/5w last Tuesday and 20d/5w low - better visible if you look at DJ for example.
With the triangle the difference is we have 5w highs and lows and not 10w.
If the 20w low was mid July the vertical lines are showing very symetrical internal structure 4x5w cycles.

This is how the cycles will look like if this triangle is the rigth pattern. You have 20w high at the top of the first wave A, then correction begins wave B and completes with 20w cycle low(16w long 4x5w cycles symetrical in time), then another wave up C starts into the 20w/40w high. Cycles run smoothly between highs and lows from one completed pattern to the next one(as it should be).
I know from theory perspective perfect, but for trading it is just moving up so what is the point of the theory? You know where you are in the big picture and the next time theory and trading will not deviate so much. But the trading cycle(first chart) is doing fine so for trading I have to stick more to what it says.

Weekly preview

Nothing much happend, the price action this week looks like completing wave c for another zig-zag. From time perspective the indices are at 10w high and we should see 2 weeks lower for 10w low. The - pattern still two options possible w-x-y(z) or some ED. We will know more in two weeks.


TRADING
Trading cycle - still buy signal. Really long cycle both high-to-high 46 days and low-to-low 34 days already. In theory rigth translated cycle is bullish and the next one should make higher high. For this to happen the decline phase should not brake below the support area. The low should be in the last August week.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - from the late June low looks like a-b-c with ugly middle section for b. Another zig-zag for either y or 3 of ED.
Not clear if this wave c is finished or not.... the last three days are difficult to count. RSI says impulse should be complete, but we need to see the price breaking the trend line. NDX will look perfect if we see one final high to complete and ED from the June lows - https://invst.ly/rtad1

Intermediate term - either a combination w-x-y or ED.
The ED - w2 retraced only 23% which is very suspicious, but if the support area around MA50 holds and we see overlap with another zig-zag it should be an ED.
If it is broken with high probability it is w-x-y and the 40w cycle turned lower. W=X+Y in time so it looks good despite the difference in size.
We have MACD and RSI now with short term and intermediate term divergence so we should see something lower and this lower will give us more information which pattern is running.

Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently watching the pattern below wave a or x, but with corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher expected.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - tricky possible 20d low, but where is the 20d high? You ca not have two 20d lows without 20d high somewhere between them. We are at 10w high and we should see two weeks lower for 10w low. Next week we should know where to put the 20d high and low.

Week 7 for the 20w cycle. More interesting is if we have 40w cycle high or not - we have to wait and see how the next leg develops.

Weekly preview

Higher as expected, but not sure it is Z. The pattern from the March low is really difficult to read... you can count several different patterns and each has its flaws. From cycle perspective 20w low late June looks more and more like the better choice and the high-to-high count imminent top for at least the 10w cycle so we should see 3-4 weeks lower.
On the daily chart I am showing the patterns I find best if the move from March is complete or one more leg up for 40w high. I have chosen this two because they will work with most of the other indices. We have to wait and see the coming decline to confirm one of the patterns.

From trading perspective as always wait for sell signal - even if the move is not complete with 2-3 weeks lower small profit is very likely and if we have reversal we will make a profit.


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal, but we have day 29 and very mature high-to-high count so I will not be surprised if we see sell signal triggered next week.
For reversal we need to see bearish final 1/3 of the cycle. Brake below the first line(last 5w low) confirms 10w cycle lower is running. Brake below the second line(the 20w low) will confirm the 40w cycle turned lower.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - really messy move like the whole one from March. I do not know if we wil see two more bounces in the wedge or not. At least the break point is clearly defined.

Intermediate term - w-x-y counts, the red one for completed pattern or yellow for one more high. X(red) is smaller than the two b(red) waves as it should be and the trend line connects the b waves so it looks good... but the last leg does not really look like impulse. If it is corrective maybe Y as a flat and 40w high later this will fit with cycles very good.
We have MACD and RSI divergence so we should see something lower and this lower will give us more information.

Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently watching this pattern... but with corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.
Main scenario for now wave a up and wave b starting soon and moving lower into 40w low November/December.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - do not react at all to the last rally from late July, weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero... the same indicator for SP500 spent the whole time for the last rally below zero, not good.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up, but with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, but the same indicator for SP500 turned lower with divergence.
Bullish Percentage - not reacting, with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up, with double divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - closing the gap.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up, with double divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 5w low as expected and now this should be 10w high followed by a decline into 10w low. Day 12 so there is enough trading days for 20d/10w high, but it could take a few more days I can not say.
If late June was 20w low and you extrapolate the first 5w cycle the low of the 40w cycle is exactly at.... 3-4th of November interesting, isn't it:)

Week 6 for the 20w cycle. 20w low late June looks much better so I will follow this scenario.

Weekly preview

Long term update posted below and link in the left panel.

No continuation lower on Tuesday so it was clear the decline is not an impulse. I was talking in the last few weeks about alternate scenario, but I had nothing to show only it is taking too much time. Now without impulsive decline the alternate scenario is the primary scenario.

Make a step back and look at the chart - from the lows in June we have clear corrective pattern choppy mess no need to be EW expert. So what options do we have with corrective pattern? - it is some b/x wave, but the decline is missing.... the other option - corrective advance means some kind of ED(two versions shown below) to complete the rally from the March low.
This is the primary scenario now - in the next few weeks the rally from March should complete with ED. Time - possible 20w low late June or if we see a decline next week this could be the 20w low.


TRADING
Trading cycle - the price is oscillating around MA10 in a tight range so the signal is neutral. Nothing to trade is a signal too. I do not see neither reversal nor completed pattern from the March low so waiting is the best option.
With 24 trading days probably at 5w Hurst cycle low.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - one possible count a-b-c with c ED for Z... I am not a big fan of such complex triple corrections, but this will work with DJ for example.
If we see one more decline next week for a bigger corrective pattern(yellow) the other version of ED will look better - see the daily chart.

Intermediate term - a-b-c with c ending diagonal looks much better than triple correction wxyxz, but it does not work for DJ or NYSE for example.

Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently watching this pattern... but with corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.
Main scenario is now wave a and wave b starting soon and moving lower into 40w low November/December. It could be b of a flat or triangle.
With corrective zig-zag there is always alternate scenarios - zig-zag W wave for combination, zig-zag X wave and the next decline begins, zig-zag wave 1 for ED. The first most likely and the last one ED the least likely.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - still negative pointing lower and not following the market.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - divergence and turning lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up probably because we should see 2-3 weeks higher.
Bullish Percentage - divergence and turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - the same lows for almost 2 months.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence and turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 5w low this week or a few days lower next week for 5w low... difficult to say.

Week 5 or 19 for the 20w cycle.... waiting to see what will happen next week. It will be nice to see one more decline next week it will count better. Even if it is not very deep it will be enough - dominant 40 week cycle with bell shape and not very well visible 20w low. The previous one was such with shallow and short low in January.

Long term - update

Time for the next update and what to expect in the near future.

Real crazy six months.... there will be no back to normal anymore forget it - neither the economy nor trading will be the same in the next decade. The current world order and financial system will fall apart in the next 10 years. It has begun long ago currently we are watching the beginning of the end with the "virus crises" as excuse. It is pretty obvious now, the globalization trend reversed and the world is starting to divide into different blocks around US around China and Europe too weak from within to emerge as equal to the other two powers.
All this will be reflected in the indexes and the expected lost decade(buy and hold yielding nothing), which with high probability began in 2018.

We saw the expected declines in all asset classes, but the speed of the decline and retracement are really crazy. This has nothing to do with strong and stable markets - exactly the opposite.
The current view for the next 6 months - no trends the next corrective wave in the opposite direction:
- Stocks - lower into November.
- Bonds - decline into November for 40w cycle low.
- USD - it could take a while to reverse, but then higher for a few months.
- Precious metals/miners - close to 4y/9y cycle high... pretty mature so reversal could happen any time or hang around for another 1-2 months.
- Crude Oil - decline to begin soon.




- STOCKS
Long term we saw 4y cycle low as expected, but it lasted only a few weeks... I doubt this is 9y cycle low - it makes sense only if the correction is over and fifth wave from 2009 is running. I do not think this is the case so I will continue to use my model with shorter cycles it makes more sense. It will be confirmed if we see bigger corrective pattern into the next 4y cycle low.
Currently I follow this cycle model - 4y high in 2018, 4y low 2020 and the next high is in 2022 and the low in 2024. Because this X wave in 2019 made higher high we have the illusion that the 4y high in 2022 should be another higher high, but we have a correction since 2018 so the high in 2022 should be retracement of the correction or lower high(shown with red).

I was expecting 30% lower, but the way it played out I doubt it is 4th wave - it does not work for the majority of the indexes only for NDX. Instead we have huge moves down and up with crazy speed all corrective. With high probability the bull market died in 2018 - since then all corrective waves. This makes forecasting very difficult all we can do is analyze wave by wave, cycle by cycle and trade accordingly.
Intermediate term for the next 6 months - main scenario is that we will see a high for wave a and wave b starting soon moving lower into 40w low November/December. It could be b of a flat or triangle.
With corrective zig-zag there is always alternate scenarios - zig-zag W wave for combination, zig-zag X wave and the next decline lower begins, zig-zag wave 1 for ED.

- BONDS
Four year cycle high hit as expected - the pattern vertical zig-zag with c=a. Next we should see a decline into 4 year cycle low in 2022.

Here is how the 4y cycle bottom-to-bottom looks like on the weekly chart. Next we should see decline into 40w cycle low which should be around mid-November.

- FOREX
Not sure about the pattern I can count something but I can not confirm it with high conviction.

Cycle perspective EUR/USD - 3 years seem to me too short for 4y cycle low so I suspect we will see one more sell off followed by a rally into 4 year cycle high.

- GOLD/SILVER/MINERS
GOLD - we saw a decline, but short living most likely 4y cycle low and now gold is heading into 9 year cycle high. If the move was an impulse you can expect higher 8y low, but for me it is corrective so I expect gold to correct lower for several years into 8y cycle low.

Silver - sharp sell off as expected but much bigger and 4y cycle low. Silver is much weaker compared to gold.... the pattern looks like expanded flat. From cycle perspective the same story like gold heading higher into 4y/9y cycle high which should not take long already 48 months long.

Miners - the same story sharp decline lasting only 3 weeks and 4 year cycle low. Next is the same like like gold and silver - heading into 4y/9y cycle high currently month 48 for the high-to-high 4y cycle.

- CRUDE OIL/NATGAS
I was expecting important low and what for a low - negative prices for the futures. The pattern is different with the lower low - some complex combination or a-b-c with c expanding ED. Long term I expect similar timing like the stock indices - high in 2022 and low in 2024. Again crude oil has a 4 year cycle running slightly shorter, but for the longer cycles sequence 11-10-7 years seems to work much better than Hurst cycles 9/18 years. Monthly chart in logarithmic scale - 4y cycle low hit as expected now I expect a zig-zag into 2022 for 4y cycle high.

Intermediate term it looks like ED to be completed in the next few weeks for 40w cycle high and decline into 40w cycle low.

Natgas - similar to crude oil it seems that Benner cycle sequence 11-10-7 works better than Hurst cycles. History is too short, but it seems to work good - HIGHS - 90(7)97(11)2008(10)2018(7)2025 / LOWS - 92(10)2002(7)2009(11)2020(10)2030. Next important low is in 2020 which fits with the EW pattern.
I was expecting final sell off for important low.... NG is the only asset which did not do anything crazy and is declining steadily into important cycle low. I think that we have huge w-x-y from the high in 2018. This zig-zag lower and zig-zag up does not look like bottom and reversal to me... probably ED for c/Y.