Long term - update

Time for the next update and what to expect in the near future.

Real crazy six months.... there will be no back to normal anymore forget it - neither the economy nor trading will be the same in the next decade. The current world order and financial system will fall apart in the next 10 years. It has begun long ago currently we are watching the beginning of the end with the "virus crises" as excuse. It is pretty obvious now, the globalization trend reversed and the world is starting to divide into different blocks around US around China and Europe too weak from within to emerge as equal to the other two powers.
All this will be reflected in the indexes and the expected lost decade(buy and hold yielding nothing), which with high probability began in 2018.

We saw the expected declines in all asset classes, but the speed of the decline and retracement are really crazy. This has nothing to do with strong and stable markets - exactly the opposite.
The current view for the next 6 months - no trends the next corrective wave in the opposite direction:
- Stocks - lower into November.
- Bonds - decline into November for 40w cycle low.
- USD - it could take a while to reverse, but then higher for a few months.
- Precious metals/miners - close to 4y/9y cycle high... pretty mature so reversal could happen any time or hang around for another 1-2 months.
- Crude Oil - decline to begin soon.




- STOCKS
Long term we saw 4y cycle low as expected, but it lasted only a few weeks... I doubt this is 9y cycle low - it makes sense only if the correction is over and fifth wave from 2009 is running. I do not think this is the case so I will continue to use my model with shorter cycles it makes more sense. It will be confirmed if we see bigger corrective pattern into the next 4y cycle low.
Currently I follow this cycle model - 4y high in 2018, 4y low 2020 and the next high is in 2022 and the low in 2024. Because this X wave in 2019 made higher high we have the illusion that the 4y high in 2022 should be another higher high, but we have a correction since 2018 so the high in 2022 should be retracement of the correction or lower high(shown with red).

I was expecting 30% lower, but the way it played out I doubt it is 4th wave - it does not work for the majority of the indexes only for NDX. Instead we have huge moves down and up with crazy speed all corrective. With high probability the bull market died in 2018 - since then all corrective waves. This makes forecasting very difficult all we can do is analyze wave by wave, cycle by cycle and trade accordingly.
Intermediate term for the next 6 months - main scenario is that we will see a high for wave a and wave b starting soon moving lower into 40w low November/December. It could be b of a flat or triangle.
With corrective zig-zag there is always alternate scenarios - zig-zag W wave for combination, zig-zag X wave and the next decline lower begins, zig-zag wave 1 for ED.

- BONDS
Four year cycle high hit as expected - the pattern vertical zig-zag with c=a. Next we should see a decline into 4 year cycle low in 2022.

Here is how the 4y cycle bottom-to-bottom looks like on the weekly chart. Next we should see decline into 40w cycle low which should be around mid-November.

- FOREX
Not sure about the pattern I can count something but I can not confirm it with high conviction.

Cycle perspective EUR/USD - 3 years seem to me too short for 4y cycle low so I suspect we will see one more sell off followed by a rally into 4 year cycle high.

- GOLD/SILVER/MINERS
GOLD - we saw a decline, but short living most likely 4y cycle low and now gold is heading into 9 year cycle high. If the move was an impulse you can expect higher 8y low, but for me it is corrective so I expect gold to correct lower for several years into 8y cycle low.

Silver - sharp sell off as expected but much bigger and 4y cycle low. Silver is much weaker compared to gold.... the pattern looks like expanded flat. From cycle perspective the same story like gold heading higher into 4y/9y cycle high which should not take long already 48 months long.

Miners - the same story sharp decline lasting only 3 weeks and 4 year cycle low. Next is the same like like gold and silver - heading into 4y/9y cycle high currently month 48 for the high-to-high 4y cycle.

- CRUDE OIL/NATGAS
I was expecting important low and what for a low - negative prices for the futures. The pattern is different with the lower low - some complex combination or a-b-c with c expanding ED. Long term I expect similar timing like the stock indices - high in 2022 and low in 2024. Again crude oil has a 4 year cycle running slightly shorter, but for the longer cycles sequence 11-10-7 years seems to work much better than Hurst cycles 9/18 years. Monthly chart in logarithmic scale - 4y cycle low hit as expected now I expect a zig-zag into 2022 for 4y cycle high.

Intermediate term it looks like ED to be completed in the next few weeks for 40w cycle high and decline into 40w cycle low.

Natgas - similar to crude oil it seems that Benner cycle sequence 11-10-7 works better than Hurst cycles. History is too short, but it seems to work good - HIGHS - 90(7)97(11)2008(10)2018(7)2025 / LOWS - 92(10)2002(7)2009(11)2020(10)2030. Next important low is in 2020 which fits with the EW pattern.
I was expecting final sell off for important low.... NG is the only asset which did not do anything crazy and is declining steadily into important cycle low. I think that we have huge w-x-y from the high in 2018. This zig-zag lower and zig-zag up does not look like bottom and reversal to me... probably ED for c/Y.