At the higher end of the range with divergences. Tech stocks masking the weakness just look at NYSE,DJ,RUT and it is getting clear. Expect decline and final push higher to complete the B-wave, but I am not sure about the degree of the decline extended 10w cycle(1-2 weeks decline) like the previous two or 20w cycle low(4 or more weeks decline).
On the daily chart for the B-wave we have too many possible combinations, but the outcome is not much different.
In a few weeks the pattern from the October low will have the same length as the decline Jan-Oct.2022 roughly 9 months each, which means the important 18m low was more likely in Oct.2022 instead of June.2022 - wave-A with length 6 months and B-wave 12 months.
On the daily chart sp500 needed 10 days to retrace 4 days decline, on the weekly chart 10 weeks to retrace 5 weeks decline, on the monthly chart almost 8 months have not retraced 2 months decline so in a messy pattern and B-wave not reversal.
This is for those with the bull market.... there will be no bull market before we see lower low. Four year cycle lasts 4 years I do not understand what is so difficult to understand it can not be more simple.
TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term probbably triangle difficult to trade.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - two zig-zags with roughly the same size for double zig-zag higher and now move in the opposite direction skewed by tech stocks. For the real pattern look NYSE for example.Notice the double divergences...
Intermediate term - four patterns two variations of a double zig-zag and two triangles, both waves A and B will have roughly the same size and the outcome is not very different:
- complex w-x-y with x-wave(white) triangle. and B will retrace close to 62%.
- y/B(yellow) is the triangle and roughly 50% retracement.
- double zig-zag the top of w is in early February then x(red) and now in b/y/B and 62% retracement.
- double zig-zag the top of w is in early December then x(green) and now in c/y/B and 62% retracement.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher nothing to suggest strength so far.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - up and down, in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - maybe extended 10w cycles consisting of 3x5w cycles as the previous two. Now at 5w high next should be move lower for the next 10w low? or 20w cycle low?
As suggested the 18m low should be in October 2022. The 40w lows/highs are at
pattern inflection points as it should be and in sync with the European indices which is important.
Months ago I have suggested the 40w cycle looks like 3x10w cycles. If we have triangle the current 40w cycles low and high count better as three longer 10w cycles. If it is a double zig-zag this should be 20w high(now at week 15) from early February and next is turn lower into 20w low.
