Weekly preview

Holiday this week, nothing new to analyze.... bigger zig-zag until the end of the year expected, alternate this is the intermediate term top. The only difference with last week is market breadth has the bare minimum to say maybe this is a top.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks, probably into year end.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag, more likely part of a bigger zig-zag.

Intermediate term - there is two options w2 of C(very low odds) or e-wave completing the B-wave.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - still pointing higher, but now they have reset after oversold levels so turn lower is possible.
McClellan Oscillator - divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - rising.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - touched overbought.
Advance-Decline Issues - close to overbought
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the previous low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - two scenarios decline into 5w low and last push for extended 20w cycle high or this is the 20w high with three extended 5w cycles.

Week 4 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 17 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.

Weekly preview

The expected wave up from last week played out... almost done. Now we have pretty obvius two impulses higher for a zig-zag a-b-c.
The question is - is that all or is it part of the usual double zig-zag. From pattern and cycle perspective there is enough for a high, but market breadth looks like in the middle of a move not a top. If this is the top this should be wave 2 of C impulse for a flat correction... not very likely. I would say the odds are higher for a double zig-zag into year end.

Another interesting point - this could be the final wave to complete wave-B as a triangle. Some hints - the pattern makes sense at last with double zig-zag wave-A and triangle, strong wave typical for final wave not 2/b explained this at the beginning of the move, most of the "magnificent 7" are completing the fifth final wave from their lows last year with weekly and monthly RSI divergence, the rule of alternation - it is not likely that both waves A and C of a correction look the same starting with weak wave lower, two years between the highs like 2018-2019 now 2022-2023 for half 4y cycle high.


It looks strange the triangle, but it is because of the tech stocks. Look at NYSE or RSP(equaly weighted SPX) one more zig-zag higher and we will have triangle retracing 68%, overall pattern and cycle will look very good... or keep dreaming about cup with handle.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks, probably into year end.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - completed the zig-zag, more likely part of a double zig-zag.

Intermediate term - there is two options w2 of C(very low odds) or e-wave completing the B-wave.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - moving higher, in the middle of a move... not a top.
McClellan Oscillator - second lower high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - third 20d cycle completing the third extended 5w cycle. Next should be decline into 5w low.
Either we have average 20w cycle high consisting of 3x5w extended cycles or we will see one more 5w cycle for extended 20w cycle.

Week 3 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 16 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.

Weekly preview

There is no reversal so with high probability we have wave a/1 lower now b/2 running higher into 20w cycle high.
This cycle is already 15 weeks long and if it has average length the high should be in 1-2 weeks, but looking at market breadth it should take longer to reset from oversold levels.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - no change, a completed and b running the question is how long it will take.

Intermediate term - no change, a low at the support area and b-wave running.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - moving higher.
McClellan Oscillator - declining after very overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - declining.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - a few days higher as expected and this should be at least 5w cycle. In this case decline into 5w low should follow.
Less likely one more 20d cycle to complete three longer 5w cycles and 20w high(both scenarios shown on the chart).

Week 2 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 15.

Weekly preview

Strong bounce, high probability that we have 20w/intermediate term low. This is not a surprise rather the way it played out - it looks like c-wave with this gaps. In theory this should be the first leg of a b-wave, but with this gaps there is a danger to exhaust quickly... like March.2022 when second leg lower followed for double zig-zag.
Short said as I pointed out last week there is something strange with the pattern so surprises are possible.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term - possible low, but something does not feel right.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - completed w-y-z or impulse which breaks the rules. The "surprise" pattern zig-zag lower a-wave, expanded flat b-wave and another zig-zag lower.

Intermediate term - a low at the support area and b-wave running, or one more decline c=a to the next support area around 3900 MA200 weekly.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher.
McClellan Oscillator - touched overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - higher for 20d high as expected, this should be 5w cycle high in the next few days - in this case we should see turn lower into 5w cycle low.

Week 16+1 for the 20w cycle. Possible 20w low, I have some doubts because of the pattern - lets see if we have confirmation next week.