Weekly preview

Decline on Friday... the same most likely c-wave and alternate triangle.
The last chart is interesting... continuation of the idea for 4y cycle low on schedule late 2023 - if you start from there and start aligning pattern and cycles you will end up with perfect picture.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term close to 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - probably the c-wave running...

Intermediate term - main scenario a-b-c running, alternate triangle.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 20d/5w high. The longer cycles - it could be 20w high.

If you assume that the 4y cycle was in 10.2023 on schedule and start counting the pattern from there it looks like huge A-B-C from the 2020 low and impulse for wave C in 4/C.
Waves A/B/C align perfectly at 4y highs/lows and waves 1,2,3,4,5/C align perfectly at 40w/18m lows/highs and you have perfect 4y cycle low/high dividing in three.... just too perfect to ignore it.

Weekly preview a little bit different

Short term more corrective mess... the waves of lesser degree have clear patterns, but trying to combine them into big picture pattern is difficult. I think it is a b-wave alternate something more complicated like triangle or diagonal.

Intermediate term - I have already posted what to expect in 2025 something like 20% decline and move up... not sure higher or lower high. Look at the charts below and make your choice.

Long term - I was playing with the charts and the more I watch them the more I think the 4y cycle low occured on schedule but with higher low because of the tech stock distorting the other indices. If you make this assumption that the 4y low was in October.2023 suddenly pattern and cycles fit perfectly and strong rally(2024) is exactly what should be expected from this low.


Short term - zig-zags on different degrees, only in hindsight you can tell with higher confidence the bigger pattern.
I think it is b-wave from a-b-c to test MA200 so the same pattern which I am talking about for weeks.

Long term from the strongest to the weakest index
NASDAQ/SP500 5 waves... zig-zags but five waves so w-y-z or 1-2-3-4-5 the move from the 2022 is close to completition
On larger degree from 2020 is this c or 3? I think it is c-wave I can not prove it... all I can say is way too choppy and weak with double RSI divergence - not my pick for third wave.

DJ/NYSE if you are looking for impulse like above.... even in this case expect 15-20% decline and if it is c or 3 it is your choice.

RUT2000 I do not see any confusion - corrective decline, the 4y cycle low occurs on schedule, corrective move higher in 2024, and now decline running

Now it is interesting if you apply this 4y cycle low late 2023 to other indices....
DJ/NYSE - clear pattern zig-zag higher, clear cycle lows on schedule on the pattern lows.

DAX - if the mess in the middle is x-wave completed on 4y cycle low suddenly you have crystal clear pattern two zig-zags with the same size Y=W... and again cycles running perfectly on schedule at pattern lows.

So my choice is 4y cycle low in late 2023 and from the low in 2020 a-b-c. You are free to see what you want to see.......

Weekly preview

Another sharp decline and zig-zag higher. The indices are close to 20w high and it is getting more likely that this is a top of a higher degree. Months ago I was talking about complex Y-wave with triangle and NDX is looking like triangle now. Expect decline for 10w low, higher for 20w high and with the current price action most likely 4y cycle high.

This is not good - instead of a decline into March to energize for another push higher the market is engaged in topping process lasting months with the sheeple aka retail investors sentiment off the charts "Largest Buy Imbalance In History: Retail Euphoria Breaks All Records", "JPM sentiment is even higher than the peak of the meme mania in 2021". And the verbal aggresion is now magnitudes higher than in 2019, not that I am surprised - simple human greed and stupidity.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - several weeks and 4y cycle high. Topping for several months running.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another sharp decline and zig-zag higher. Probably part of a decline into 10w low.

Intermediate term - complex Y-wave and triangle y/Y is back on the table. This is not good because it means important top.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high, next we should see decline into 10w low... it counts better as three cycles so far.

Next important low should be 40w low... maybe we are seeing 18m low/18m high sequence. Possible 4y cycle high and how it could look like.

Weekly preview

Turn lower as expected and corrective retracement. No change this should be the c-wave lower to MA200.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - sharp decline right on schedule and zig-zag higher two legs with the same size - all this should be part of the c-wave(red) lower.

Intermediate term - maybe the top was in November with completed impulse c-wave. Now flat pattern running, currently at the top of the b-wave and next is c-wave down to MA200.
Alternatives - this is the top with a complex w-x-y/Y wave and of course plenty of "EW experts" with fifth wave of an impulse.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - lower high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low now higher into 20d high. The indices are at 10w high.

Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.