The last chart is interesting... continuation of the idea for 4y cycle low on schedule late 2023 - if you start from there and start aligning pattern and cycles you will end up with perfect picture.
TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term close to 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - probably the c-wave running...
Intermediate term - main scenario a-b-c running, alternate triangle.
Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 20d/5w high. The longer cycles - it could be 20w high.
If you assume that the 4y cycle was in 10.2023 on schedule and start counting the pattern from there it looks like huge A-B-C from the 2020 low and impulse for wave C in 4/C.
Waves A/B/C align perfectly at 4y highs/lows and waves 1,2,3,4,5/C align perfectly at 40w/18m lows/highs and you have perfect 4y cycle low/high dividing in three.... just too perfect to ignore it.
Closer look of the last chart with alternate triangle wave 4 - https://invst.ly/1938hr
ReplyDeleteAnother variation of the same idea DJ - https://invst.ly/195l7c
DeleteToday was the button?
ReplyDeleteWhat button??
DeleteBefore C wav to 6200
ReplyDeleteFor wave 5
ReplyDeleteIt is called bottom.
DeleteI prefer to see one more leg lower.
Higher high is not a guarantee, just one of few possible scenarios.
Care to update what you believe is the most likely path on DAX daily chart? Thx
ReplyDeletewaves 4-5/c - https://invst.ly/196r6t
DeleteAnd ndx?
ReplyDeleteThe same triangle, diagonal, c-wave just waiting.
DeleteWave 5 of c wave?
ReplyDeleteSentiment readings like AAII at extremely bearish levels and the markets is only down 3-5% since ATH. Kinda fits your idea that we need to see at least one more push to the upside before market is ready for a bigger decline…
ReplyDeleteLow today, next week back to 605
DeleteI would not rely on this surveys just empty talk - better look at market breadth where you vote with your money.
DeleteI read something like that "Institutions/hedge funds are lying they are bullish and selling, small investors are lying they are bearish and buying with both hands"
I would say price action confirms it - the last few months look like distribution at a top.