The pattern is a mess, market breadth indicators in the middle of their ranges - no signs of something important, cycles - best we should see 18m low soon followed by 18m/4y high in May/June. For now ist just waiting....
TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - distribution running for several months, close to 4y cycle high. Intermediate term not clear.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - maybe expanding structure... I do not know too many zig-zags in both directions.
Intermediate term - I have never seen expanding diagonals/triangles... but for now this is the only pattern which makes some sense.
Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but still in the middle of their ranges.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - turned higher for 20d cycle high currently day 7. Trying to make sense of this mess - possible 10w/20w cycle lows/highs.
Possible scenario for the long term cycles....
The pump off the bottom looks like another abc. If that was A complete (if), then we should have B down or sideways for a day or two and then another C up. If we don't get a B after Friday's pump, I agree that this little correction is probably over. Thank you!
ReplyDeleteHello, Krasi, thanks much as always for your updated weekly take on the markets. I was hoping you could explain the wave degree labeling for your "Long Term" (LT) chart vs. the "Possible Scenario" (PS) long-term chart. Both charts are using A, B, C designations for the waves depicted, so I am confused why the market is shown in Wave B in the LT chart, and Wave C in the PS chart, for the same approximate time range. Secondly, I went to this website: [ https://elliottwave-forecast.com/video-blog/a-path-to-10000-a-nesting-on-the-making/#:~:text=S&P%20500%20(SPX)%205%20Waves,rather%20in%20wave%20(III) ] to get the BIG picture beyond the wave degree/count for the Super Cycle. For educational purposes, and noting that the website charts/article are dated July 2024, are we therefore in Super Cycle Wave ((1))(IV)III(4)(b)C in the first chart and ((1))(III)III(4)(b)C in the second (Nested)? Thanks much.
ReplyDeleteThe C on the last chart is one degree lower compared with the B on the long term chart. It corresponds to Y on the LT chart - depending if you count zig-zag(Y) or impulse (C).
DeleteThis nested 1-2 1-2 are bullshit I have never seen them working and this analysis is garbage.
Thanks much for your input/take.
DeleteIs bounce up over
ReplyDeleteEither it was 20d high or a few more days for flat triangle....
DeleteKrasi, if I plot a positive gradient on the spx, I see 5434 as a longer term support. do you see that too?
ReplyDeleteIf I look at support/resistance and trend lines I do not see it as important level.
DeleteSo far a-b-c lower for a few months and MA200 reached(SPX and NDX) - that was the expected path... and now what?
ReplyDeleteDifficult to say, NDX chart - https://invst.ly/19bgz9
You can see it as impulse red and it is completed - this is consistent with RSI the final wave is the weakest and brakes the long term trend line
You can see it as a-b-c black and we have one more wave which will look better with cycles.
What about SP500? Still see a move back up to 6200 ( as per short term chart)
ReplyDeleteThis is one possible outcome, it could be lower high.
DeleteKrasi, 16000 before
ReplyDeleteNo clue what you mean....
DeleteDon't you think we are going to the bottom of the channel? It's looks like we saw the top in Februar, 16000 in ndx
ReplyDeleteIt is possible, but first NDX should break the trend line from the 2022 lows.
DeleteThanks, I see
ReplyDeleteWhat about the DAX. It's the first time I've seen such a difference with the US
ReplyDelete