The decline continued this week. I think we should see intermediate term low soon and higher for 40w high into May/June which should be major top.
All this aligns perfect with the USD - it looks like c-wave lower to around 96-97 is running to complete the correction from the 2022 top.
TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - distribution running for several months, close to 4y cycle high. Intermediate term low soon and higher into May/June.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another double zig-zag.... now it is time for a move in the opposite direction.
Intermediate term - some kind of a-b-c lower to MA200 should be completing. Next we should see another corrective pattern higher into May/June.
Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no important signals....
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher, probably retracement next week.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible path for the cycles. Higher next week for 5w high.
Possible scenario for the long term cycles.... the indices should be close to 40w low.
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Could be a triple zig zag this time. Friday being the end of the 2nd X. Thank you
ReplyDeleteThanks for continuing to provide this insight Krasi!! Is the chaos we are seeing right now consistent with your models or an anomaly?
ReplyDeleteWhat chaos?? The market declining is a chaos?
Deleteprobably this - https://invst.ly/19fkmv
ReplyDeleteThank you Krasi for analysis
ReplyDeleteThanks
ReplyDeletebear pennant on $SPY at the close.
ReplyDeleteDo you think pattern is complete for 20w low?
ReplyDeleteI guess it is not completed.
DeleteLook at XLF from 2020 - https://ibb.co/1fRnCh1x
ReplyDeleteTwo impulses with triangle in the middle (the suggested 4y low late 2023)
I would say the high is behind us and we have reversal.
Can this be 18m low
ReplyDeleteYes,it can
Delete