Intermediate term - if you look at other indices like DJ,NYSE,SPXEW,XVG the last important high was the end of November and this leg up should be 20w high then one more lower low should follow 20w/40w low... waves 4 and 5 from the November high?
So 1-2 weeks higher then lower low the second half of April to complete the decline from the end of November high(40w low) then higher May/June/July(40w high).
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - corrective move higher, currently in the b-wave.
Intermediate term - currently I expect test of the MA200 and lower low with divergence.
Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, no oversold levels or something to suggest important low.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - early next week 20d low then higher. The 20w highs and lows synchronized with other indices like NYSE,SPXEW,XVG.
Possible scenario for the long term cycles.... the indices are in the time band for 40w cycle low, average length is 32-36 weeks.
For the long term cycles we are going to see one more high?
ReplyDeleteIf we see one more lower low with very high probability the next high will be lower high.
DeleteCan you predict TSLA chart over the next 12 months. :)
ReplyDeleteIt looks like huge a-b-c from the high late 2021. Currently close to completing 1/c and higher into the summer for 2/c like the indices then big wave lower 3/c and retracement higher into year end for 4/c, in Q1.2026 the decline should be completed with 5/c.
DeleteLike the market
ReplyDelete