Intermediate term - if you look at other indices like DJ,NYSE,SPXEW,XVG the last important high was the end of November and this leg up should be 20w high then one more lower low should follow 20w/40w low... waves 4 and 5 from the November high?
So 1-2 weeks higher then lower low the second half of April to complete the decline from the end of November high(40w low) then higher May/June/July(40w high).
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - corrective move higher, currently in the b-wave.
Intermediate term - currently I expect test of the MA200 and lower low with divergence.
Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, no oversold levels or something to suggest important low.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - early next week 20d low then higher. The 20w highs and lows synchronized with other indices like NYSE,SPXEW,XVG.
Possible scenario for the long term cycles.... the indices are in the time band for 40w cycle low, average length is 32-36 weeks.
For the long term cycles we are going to see one more high?
ReplyDeleteIf we see one more lower low with very high probability the next high will be lower high.
DeleteCan you predict TSLA chart over the next 12 months. :)
ReplyDeleteIt looks like huge a-b-c from the high late 2021. Currently close to completing 1/c and higher into the summer for 2/c like the indices then big wave lower 3/c and retracement higher into year end for 4/c, in Q1.2026 the decline should be completed with 5/c.
DeleteThank you Krasi
DeleteLike the market
ReplyDeleteKrasi, this is the end of the short rally?
ReplyDeleteYes, but I think this is part of a bigger pattern
DeleteWhat do you mean?
ReplyDeleteBigger pattern and this is the first wave a of a triangle or flat or wave w of a zig-zag.
DeleteCycles explained using NDX - https://invst.ly/19ql3q
ReplyDeleteLate November/early December was 40w high for different indices.
After that you have:
- 9 weeks higher with high probability 10w cycle high
- 9 weeks lower with high probability 10w cycle low
- 6 weeks so far expect another 1-3 weeks for 10w/20w high
- after 20w high expect 20w low which should be 40w low too
- then higher for 40w cycle high will follow.
Nice, thanks a lot
ReplyDeleteIt's surprised that GOLD never got reversed .... any ideas about its short term and intermediate term? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteShort term on the daily chart there is impulse completing from the November.2024 low and double RSI divergence.
DeleteIntermediate term on the weekly chart there is double zig-zag from the September.2023 low and RSI divergence.
Long term 4.5 years from the previous important high in 2020.
The signs point lower.