Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - sharp decline right on schedule and zig-zag higher two legs with the same size - all this should be part of the c-wave(red) lower.
Intermediate term - maybe the top was in November with completed impulse c-wave. Now flat pattern running, currently at the top of the b-wave and next is c-wave down to MA200. Alternatives - this is the top with a complex w-x-y/Y wave and of course plenty of "EW experts" with fifth wave of an impulse.
Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - lower high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low now higher into 20d high. The indices are at 10w high.
Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.
Looks like gap down tomorrow
ReplyDeleteUgly close after two legs higher with the same size... this points to continuation lower.
DeleteYou say that its the same people who control both sides. If that is the case, why are policies of the new administration 180 degrees opposite to that of the previous administration? What is your theory on what's currently going on related to tariffs, etc.
ReplyDeleteDo you see how it works - they throw you a few breadcrumbs and you feel everything changed when the main agenda stays the same.
Delete- hatred and division so that we fight each other instead of the rulers
- advancing digital ID and currency so that they can control you, no bitcoin is not freedom fighting CBs/deep state it is the same bullshit it is NSAs child, but the sheeple cheering it.
- throwing hundreds of billions for AI so that they can track you and control you better
- printing money so that the rich get richer and you get fucked
- operation warp speed and now some more poisons, but it is for your good fighting cancer
- expect more wars not less
- freedom of speech... unless you same something about israel
The agenda is fully on track nothing changed, It is the opposite side of the same coin.
Trump is not a savior... just another puppet. I watched a few interviews the guy is so dumb, redneck with huge ego... and god complex.
But the herd wants a strong men he will hit on the table and everyone will obey and america will be great again - good luck with that. This is history past 20 century... it is over.
I have watched exactly the same theater 1:1 in Bulgaria the sheep wants a shepherd - it does not work.
Tariffs are just another step for destroying economy nothing more, they never worked.
Myself and Krasi come from ex-communist countries, Krasi Bulgaria, myself Poland and ti us it looks very familiar what is taking place in the west. It is communism reimagined, this time they call it "stakeholder capitalism" but it is Marxism in disguise. Chinse like governance system on steroids, watch very good presentation from James Lindsay (it is 2hours but definitely worth it)
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyXc_LZtCEE
Everything you have been seeing over last 5-7 years (lgbt, feminism, climate change, critical race theory, DEI etc.) are means to convince "oppressed groups" current free market capitalism does not work and people need to transition to "stakeholder capitalism". As every marxist revolution must be implemented bottom-up, people must want it (they call it sustainable ideas) i.e. like pushing climate change, very nobel idea but it is only used as a tool
i dont usually say anything but you both are soooo right it's a shame no one believes it as long as they can have their "good time" then it's all ok
DeleteYou hit the nail after covid I realized that the people in the west are not ready to sacrifice their comfort and refuse to confront with authorities.
DeleteWhy america became great - because the people fought for freedom. First get rid of the british empire and have freedom to innovate, trade, do business etc. This days are gone because the freedom is gone.
Why communism failed - because did not let the people be free and develop their talents. Some stupid politburo full with old idiots decided what is right or not.
Corporate communism is coming in the west - combination of the worst from communism and capitalism. This will be the demise of the west. The people just do not want to hear because all their nice and comfort world will crumble - denying is easier, fighting for freedom needs sacrifices.
One more thing to add from me. For those who think transition will be peaceful, think again. Every marxist revolution requires opposition to be crashed. Once they get what they want from oppressed groups, imprisonments and murders will ensue on anyone opposing (or had been opposing in the past) the new system. And oppressed groups will be treated the same, it is unfamous saying "revolution devours its children", which it is already happening (i.e. DEI causing Californian fires and movie big shots loosing everything, DEI hiring in game industry resulting in Ubisoft and EA having huge financial problems, Boeing financial issues etc)
DeleteOne picture, thousand words, WEF chair in his office
Deletehttps://i0.wp.com/bioplasticsnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Klaus-Schwab.jpg?ssl=1
This video compliments James Lindsay Both well worth watching….. https://youtu.be/yErKTVdETpw
DeleteGreat video!!
DeleteThe useful idiots do not understand that there was no fight communism/capitalism.
Lenin was smuggled in Russia and started color revolution nothing different than the arab spring or any other regime change by the cia.
The communism was an experiment created and terminated by the puppet masters when it was not needed any more. Now the next experiment is prepared by the same people.... which financed and Hitler and the communist and so on.
The same theater and the sheeple do not get it and fight each other left/right USA/Russia USA/China it is all theater to create the conditions for the people to accept willingly the next type of slavery.
But hey the messiah is back and we are in the golden age and I am stupid communist who do not know anything.....
krasi, what are your views on SP500? its turn back up again. do you see any changes on the TA to ATH from this dip?
ReplyDeleteIt will decline as shown on the short term charts and if it is not lower to the MA200 and the top is not in the pattern that makes some sense and fits cycles is something like this - https://invst.ly/18qwyp
DeleteThe DAX will fit in this scenario too, it has very clear impulses - https://invst.ly/18qx6t
DeleteNasdaq is looking more and more like this - https://invst.ly/18tosg
ReplyDeleteCare to update your short term chart on S&P500? Thanks!
DeleteThere is nothing to update it is lower for 10w low.
DeleteThe update is for the intermediate see above.
Ok sure, but do you see anything bearish this week except the gap lower on Monday?
Deleteit is just another corrective wave nothing more - https://invst.ly/18u48v
Delete