Jan 25, 2025

Weekly preview

It looks like the b-wave was completed this week with c/b extending from 1 to 1.618 and SPX squeezed a few points above the ATH. I do not see other US indices with new highs, but it does not matter this few points were enough for the most people to freak out and the trolls going ballistic.
For what? for nothing just the top of a b-wave. For the second time after 2019 I have to disable comments so for sure this is a top.
Nothing changed we have 40w high in November and the market is turning lower into 40w low. This is b-wave at 10w high.

TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - wave c of b extended to 1.618, perfect impulse for the c-wave with extended fifth wave and perfect Fibo levels at two different degrees. I have not seen this for years.


Intermediate term - maybe the top was in November with completed impulse c-wave. Now flat pattern running, currently at the top of the b-wave and next is c-wave down to MA200.


Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - neutral... some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - very overbought level and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 10w high, stretched 20d cycle high.


Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.
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6 comments:

  1. Roberto MattheusJan 27, 2025, 3:48:00 AM

    A flock of black swans swarming over the market

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousJan 27, 2025, 1:17:00 PM

    Well done Krasi, let only the shorters' analysis pass, that's how a good blogger sold to the system does it.

    ReplyDelete
  3. KrasiJan 29, 2025, 5:55:00 AM

    This could work for DJ but nor for other indices - https://invst.ly/18nbsd

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KrasiJan 29, 2025, 6:11:00 AM

      Not a big fan of this impulse counts but anyway the DJ scenario for the SPX - https://invst.ly/18nbz5

      Delete
  4. KrasiJan 30, 2025, 1:33:00 PM

    "Poor Krasi, he tries and tries again, he puts all the passion he can into this blogger, but unfortunately the hoped-for results do not arrive, the market is very strong, there is a lot of liquidity and the World has entered the golden age, no wars, only better economy and finance."

    I laughed my head off:)))))
    The level of denial and stupidity is off the charts.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Roberto MattheusJan 31, 2025, 11:38:00 PM

    It's this an ABC though? It would mean much more chop in March?

    ReplyDelete

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