Weekly preview

A lot of volatility... which makes forecasting difficult. Short term we saw up/down/big up - I still think this should be the expected a-b with c-wave to follow. BUT the minimum down target has been reached and we have big bar up so there is a posibility the decline is completed... because of the speed of the decline it could have already burned all the fuel.

- Pattern - I see five legs lower which can not be counted as impulse so we should see one more leg lower.... but you can say it started in February so we have completed zig-zag and it is over or for some indices like NYSE it could be this zig-zag with triangle b-wave
- Cycles - if the cycles are moving with average length the indices are close to 20w high and one more 5w cycle lower to complete the decline. This case is shown on the daily cycle chart below and visually looks perfect. But usualy the higs/lows are at pattern higs/lows not at small degree(not size) waves and when you have such fast moves usualy the cycles are shorter taking less time.
- Market breadth - no BUT we should see one more leg lower. When you see such extremes VIX,McClellan Oscillator for example this is not THE low expect one more low with diveergence.
The signs are pointing to one more leg lower with some doubts, next week we should know more.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - completed a-wave as impulse or the whole decline (alternate zig-zag w-x in red). Now something higher b-wave or the first leg up.

Intermediate term - if we have one more leg lower target should be the next support level and MA200 weekly.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - bounce higher from oversold levels.
McClellan Oscillator - turned higher from oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher from oversold level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher from oversold level.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher from oversold level.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing lower from extreme level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - week/week and a half for 5w high and potential 20w high. Visually this looks great, as I wrote my concern is the speed of the decline.

The indices are in the time band for 40w cycle low, average length is 32-36 weeks. It is very likely this is a low from a higher degree even 4y cycle low.