Weekly preview

The market took the shorcut and continued lower. I did not expected to be straight line lower to the important trend lines(see daily weekly), but it is what it is.
Those who were two greedy and did not took seriously the charts and the completed pattern were punished. Maybe insults and rants will help next time.

Short term - waves 4-5 to complete impulse will fit best.
Intermediate term - you can count a-b-c from the February high or w-x-y from the December high. I preffer w-x-y because most of the other indices like NYSE,SPXEW,DJ made a high late November, in November you have the 40w cycle high, and this decline did not occur suddenly it was building for months.
Long term - most of the EW guys count this as wave 4 from the 2020 low... I am sceptical, it has to be expanding ending diagonal very rare pattern and the next wave higher should be bigger than the last one - not very likely. On the weekly chart the RSI trend line from 2020 was broken and it moved below 30 into oversold territory - this is not how wave 4 behaves.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waves 4-5 to complete impulse lower.

Intermediate term - based on other indices the most likely pattern is w-x-y. If you look at NYSE,SPXEW,DJ you have 5 legs from the top, but you can not count impulse so most likely we will see 7 legs for the usual double zig-zag.
SPX - from the top early December expanded flat w-wave, zig-zag X and 20w high and now a-b-c zig-zag for y-wave and a low around support and the trend line line from 2020.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - now we have some oversold levels, but some divergences too.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal and divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal and divergence.
Bullish Percentage - oversold level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversold level.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 2-3 days higher for wave 4 and 20d high then another 2-3 days lower for wave 5 and 20d low will fit perfect.
I think we have 20w high late March and now heading lower into 20w low.

The indices are in the time band for 40w cycle low, average length is 32-36 weeks. Probably it will take a few more weeks and it is likely this is a low from a higher degree.