May 16, 2026
Update
In March the expectation was for a move higher into mid-May or later then decline into 18m low in July. Now we have the move up into mid-May but different than expected. Instead of retrace and letting it bleed into July we see double down on greed. The result - now it is 100% sure it is GAME OVER.
Market breadrth - awful for months, double and tripple divergences long term. Indicators with divergences monthly and weekly.
Cycles - 18m high, 4y high, 20w high... could last another week if we are lucky.
Pattern - from 2020 some see completed impulse, I see a-b-c. Most bullish this is the top of wave-3 so expect 20% or more correction for wave-4 and final fifth wave - I highly doubt it.
Short term the only "positive" signs - RSI was overbought and just turned lower so maybe we need to see divergence and other indices like NYSE,SPXEW,DAX made a 5w low the end of April and after that we have one zig-zag up and down... it does not feel like completed pattern. There is two possiblities - triangle or flat, triangle will take too much time so more likely flat.This could give us another week, week and a half for the pattern and the 20w high to be completed.... or it just continues lower who knows.
If it is impulse it is done - ther trend line is broken and we have ugly daily and weekly cnadles. There is a chance watching other indices that it is complex pattern and there is a flat to be completed testing the trend line and double top before turning lower for a long time.
Pattern - minimum decline 20% to 6000 for wave-4. I do not buy this, it is over.
Short term cycles - turned lower exacly at the day... if we are lucky there is one more week.
Long term cycles - 18m and 4y cycle highs.
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7000 is support zone, we have to break it for change the trend
ReplyDeleteHope and pray will not help you it is game over.
Deletehow can it be over when yourself draw a upswing to above ATH in your first chart!?
DeleteThe big picture, the next one week does not matter.
DeleteRespectfully I disagree. Earning are still 70 to 80 % positive. I live in the US and people haven't slowed spending at all. I travel for work and see it first hand. Wealth and spending like I have never seen in 50 years. Go out to eat or on vacation and it's freaking packed. Capex is still very positive. Companies are spending on the future. Only way to get a big crash imo is ww3. I think dips will be bought for awhile. You can simply do it from a phone in your pocket. Such a different time that just 20 year ago. Just imo from observation.
ReplyDeleteThe market is overvalued and in bubble territory on every single metric. Your personal perception for the economy does not matter. No, it is not different this time. It is the same old shit called greed.
DeleteAlgos use these metrics to take money from the suckers of the world. I agree that dips will be bought. At what point is your thesis completely wrong? 7600? It seems the goal post year after year just keeps moving. There are times over the years where you said no way for a new ath an it always hit. So your saying it's game over 100% which means you are 100% sure it will not go to xxx? What's the number? Thanks for time.
DeleteTrolls are putting words in my mouth after that moving the goal post and I am wrong.
DeleteThe top will occur earliest at the next major top which is late 2025 - stated this in 2018 simple cycle math.
No it will not happen in 2023 or 2024. My statement all the time is it does not matter how high it will go - it will retrace everything. It does not mean it will happen the moment I say it - and here goes I am saying the turn is imminent... for years.
There is no number it is price behavior and time and this last month was the final nail in the coffin.
So why the BTC is so week, and the problem is inflation, look at tax, any way, the momentum is verystrong and the market at the long channel top,
ReplyDeleteBecause the bubble popped and now the indices will follow. Denial will not help you either.
DeleteYou right but I think it will take time to get shape, maybe double top or head and shoulder and break the channel
ReplyDeleteAny way 7000 is long unless it break
ReplyDeleteLast Friday was 20d low?
ReplyDeleteMost likely
DeleteWhen and how 7y and 9y cycles will be synchronised ?
ReplyDeleteAccording my charts Q4.2028-Q1.2029
DeleteFrom 2002 4x7~=3x9
What to expect next?. Several years going up?
DeleteHigher could be big sideways correction, but yrs something in the opposite direction.
DeleteC-wave for a flat on DAX in progress?
ReplyDeleteIt looks so - the missing wave for completed pattern.
DeleteWow 4h chart futures the cycle highs run like a clock - https://invst.ly/1hhyba
DeleteIt should be over on Friday in the morning.
How high can wave c of Y go? Thx
DeleteThe previous high
DeleteYou mean may 22 we are at high then lower all summer
ReplyDeleteSomething like that
DeleteSo according to big cycles the most likely would be: down to summer 2027, up to early 2028, down to early 2029 and after up sideways ?
ReplyDeleteDo not plan years ahead - next is a high now, 40w low October/November and 40w high January.
DeleteBut in terms of the next 18m cycles - down to summer 2027, up to September/October 2027, down Q4.2028/Q1.2029
so now down to 5000 end of summer 2027?
Delete"in terms of the next 18m cycles - down to summer 2027, up to September/October 2027, down Q4.2028/Q1.2029"
Deletecan you draw this on a chart for ease of visualization?
You have been saying a multi year decline has started since 2022. All anyone has to do is look at your long term charts on this site. Now the top is finally in? Why should anyone believe you now?
ReplyDeletePerfect example for a low IQ troll.... Quote from my answer above:
Delete"Trolls are putting words in my mouth after that I am moving the goal post and I am wrong.
The top will occur earliest at the next major top which is late 2025 - stated this in 2018 simple cycle math.
No it will not happen in 2023 or 2024. "
Since 2022... no much earlier I claim all this will end in tears and nothing changed.
When you say it will end in tears, are you talking about 20% decline to next 4y low or more?
ReplyDelete