It looks like the b-wave was completed this week with c/b extending from 1 to 1.618 and SPX squeezed a few points above the ATH. I do not see other US indices with new highs, but it does not matter this few points were enough for the most people to freak out and the trolls going ballistic.
For what? for nothing just the top of a b-wave. For the second time after 2019 I have to disable comments so for sure this is a top.
Nothing changed we have 40w high in November and the market is turning lower into 40w low. This is b-wave at 10w high.
TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - wave c of b extended to 1.618, perfect impulse for the c-wave with extended fifth wave and perfect Fibo levels at two different degrees. I have not seen this for years.
Intermediate term - maybe the top was in November with completed impulse c-wave. Now flat pattern running, currently at the top of the b-wave and next is c-wave down to MA200.
Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - neutral... some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - very overbought level and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 10w high, stretched 20d cycle high.
Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.
Jan 25, 2025
Jan 22, 2025
The top
In 2019 I had to disable comments because trolls went in overdrive with their stupidity and insults. Back then I wrote no one will learn anything and at the next major top in 2025(9y cycle from the 2018 high) the same will repeat.... 2025 just started and I must disable the comments again.
Trolls, emotionaly unstable people, dreamers everything is great again... the messiah just took controll nothing could go wrong:)))))) With all this stupidity I will not be surpised if this is MAJOR top.
It is so simple look at the charts.... but no one cares, still two charts.
The top in 2021/2022 and now are exactly the same - time and shape,even the time window November-January.
Summary 7 weeks topping process and 10% lower. Back then NDX made lower high other indices higher high. Now some could make higher high other lower high.
It does not matter next move is at least 10% lower.
And all the VIX bullshit.... this is how volatility looks like - higher.
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