Weekly preview

The decline continued this week. I think we should see intermediate term low soon and higher for 40w high into May/June which should be major top.
All this aligns perfect with the USD - it looks like c-wave lower to around 96-97 is running to complete the correction from the 2022 top.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - distribution running for several months, close to 4y cycle high. Intermediate term low soon and higher into May/June.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another double zig-zag.... now it is time for a move in the opposite direction.

Intermediate term - some kind of a-b-c lower to MA200 should be completing. Next we should see another corrective pattern higher into May/June.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no important signals....
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher, probably retracement next week.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible path for the cycles. Higher next week for 5w high.

Possible scenario for the long term cycles.... the indices should be close to 40w low.

Weekly preview

Decline as expected... and another zig-zag. For the last three months there is so many of them in both directions - it is a mess dificult to decipher with a lot of room for interpretations.
The pattern is a mess, market breadth indicators in the middle of their ranges - no signs of something important, cycles - best we should see 18m low soon followed by 18m/4y high in May/June. For now ist just waiting....


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - distribution running for several months, close to 4y cycle high. Intermediate term not clear.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - maybe expanding structure... I do not know too many zig-zags in both directions.

Intermediate term - I have never seen expanding diagonals/triangles... but for now this is the only pattern which makes some sense.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but still in the middle of their ranges.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - turned higher for 20d cycle high currently day 7. Trying to make sense of this mess - possible 10w/20w cycle lows/highs.

Possible scenario for the long term cycles....

Weekly preview

Decline on Friday... the same most likely c-wave and alternate triangle.
The last chart is interesting... continuation of the idea for 4y cycle low on schedule late 2023 - if you start from there and start aligning pattern and cycles you will end up with perfect picture.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term close to 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - probably the c-wave running...

Intermediate term - main scenario a-b-c running, alternate triangle.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 20d/5w high. The longer cycles - it could be 20w high.

If you assume that the 4y cycle was in 10.2023 on schedule and start counting the pattern from there it looks like huge A-B-C from the 2020 low and impulse for wave C in 4/C.
Waves A/B/C align perfectly at 4y highs/lows and waves 1,2,3,4,5/C align perfectly at 40w/18m lows/highs and you have perfect 4y cycle low/high dividing in three.... just too perfect to ignore it.

Weekly preview a little bit different

Short term more corrective mess... the waves of lesser degree have clear patterns, but trying to combine them into big picture pattern is difficult. I think it is a b-wave alternate something more complicated like triangle or diagonal.

Intermediate term - I have already posted what to expect in 2025 something like 20% decline and move up... not sure higher or lower high. Look at the charts below and make your choice.

Long term - I was playing with the charts and the more I watch them the more I think the 4y cycle low occured on schedule but with higher low because of the tech stock distorting the other indices. If you make this assumption that the 4y low was in October.2023 suddenly pattern and cycles fit perfectly and strong rally(2024) is exactly what should be expected from this low.


Short term - zig-zags on different degrees, only in hindsight you can tell with higher confidence the bigger pattern.
I think it is b-wave from a-b-c to test MA200 so the same pattern which I am talking about for weeks.

Long term from the strongest to the weakest index
NASDAQ/SP500 5 waves... zig-zags but five waves so w-y-z or 1-2-3-4-5 the move from the 2022 is close to completition
On larger degree from 2020 is this c or 3? I think it is c-wave I can not prove it... all I can say is way too choppy and weak with double RSI divergence - not my pick for third wave.

DJ/NYSE if you are looking for impulse like above.... even in this case expect 15-20% decline and if it is c or 3 it is your choice.

RUT2000 I do not see any confusion - corrective decline, the 4y cycle low occurs on schedule, corrective move higher in 2024, and now decline running

Now it is interesting if you apply this 4y cycle low late 2023 to other indices....
DJ/NYSE - clear pattern zig-zag higher, clear cycle lows on schedule on the pattern lows.

DAX - if the mess in the middle is x-wave completed on 4y cycle low suddenly you have crystal clear pattern two zig-zags with the same size Y=W... and again cycles running perfectly on schedule at pattern lows.

So my choice is 4y cycle low in late 2023 and from the low in 2020 a-b-c. You are free to see what you want to see.......

Weekly preview

Another sharp decline and zig-zag higher. The indices are close to 20w high and it is getting more likely that this is a top of a higher degree. Months ago I was talking about complex Y-wave with triangle and NDX is looking like triangle now. Expect decline for 10w low, higher for 20w high and with the current price action most likely 4y cycle high.

This is not good - instead of a decline into March to energize for another push higher the market is engaged in topping process lasting months with the sheeple aka retail investors sentiment off the charts "Largest Buy Imbalance In History: Retail Euphoria Breaks All Records", "JPM sentiment is even higher than the peak of the meme mania in 2021". And the verbal aggresion is now magnitudes higher than in 2019, not that I am surprised - simple human greed and stupidity.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - several weeks and 4y cycle high. Topping for several months running.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another sharp decline and zig-zag higher. Probably part of a decline into 10w low.

Intermediate term - complex Y-wave and triangle y/Y is back on the table. This is not good because it means important top.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high, next we should see decline into 10w low... it counts better as three cycles so far.

Next important low should be 40w low... maybe we are seeing 18m low/18m high sequence. Possible 4y cycle high and how it could look like.

Weekly preview

Turn lower as expected and corrective retracement. No change this should be the c-wave lower to MA200.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - sharp decline right on schedule and zig-zag higher two legs with the same size - all this should be part of the c-wave(red) lower.

Intermediate term - maybe the top was in November with completed impulse c-wave. Now flat pattern running, currently at the top of the b-wave and next is c-wave down to MA200.
Alternatives - this is the top with a complex w-x-y/Y wave and of course plenty of "EW experts" with fifth wave of an impulse.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - lower high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low now higher into 20d high. The indices are at 10w high.

Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.

Weekly preview

It looks like the b-wave was completed this week with c/b extending from 1 to 1.618 and SPX squeezed a few points above the ATH. I do not see other US indices with new highs, but it does not matter this few points were enough for the most people to freak out and the trolls going ballistic.
For what? for nothing just the top of a b-wave. For the second time after 2019 I have to disable comments so for sure this is a top.
Nothing changed we have 40w high in November and the market is turning lower into 40w low. This is b-wave at 10w high.

TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - wave c of b extended to 1.618, perfect impulse for the c-wave with extended fifth wave and perfect Fibo levels at two different degrees. I have not seen this for years.

Intermediate term - maybe the top was in November with completed impulse c-wave. Now flat pattern running, currently at the top of the b-wave and next is c-wave down to MA200.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - neutral... some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - very overbought level and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 10w high, stretched 20d cycle high.

Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.

The top

In 2019 I had to disable comments because trolls went in overdrive with their stupidity and insults. Back then I wrote no one will learn anything and at the next major top in 2025(9y cycle from the 2018 high) the same will repeat.... 2025 just started and I must disable the comments again.
Trolls, emotionaly unstable people, dreamers everything is great again... the messiah just took controll nothing could go wrong:))))))
With all this stupidity I will not be surpised if this is MAJOR top.

It is so simple look at the charts.... but no one cares, still two charts.

The top in 2021/2022 and now are exactly the same - time and shape,even the time window November-January. Summary 7 weeks topping process and 10% lower.
Back then NDX made lower high other indices higher high. Now some could make higher high other lower high. It does not matter next move is at least 10% lower.

And all the VIX bullshit.... this is how volatility looks like - higher.

Weekly preview

It seams like a-b-c correction lower completed and now the next leg higher, but if you look other indices like DJ,SPXEW it is more likely a-b-c correction higher and 10w high with reversal lower to follow.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like a-b-c lower and now higher, but I think it is in fact a-b-c higher(red) and next is lower.

Intermediate term - the first target should be MA200 and support in the 5600-5700 area.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher.
McClellan Oscillator - cclose to overbought.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - expect 20d high it could be 10w high too.

Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.