Weekly preview

We have completed pattern at Fibo level for example NDX or SPX and turn lower in the early stages.
Cycles are bearish - at important high. Market breadth is bearish - very weak with divergences for a long time.

I would say expect decline into 40w low sometimes in November.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - It looks like a-b so far.

Intermediate term - Next should be decline to MA200 and support.

Long term - touching the trend line one more time with divergence.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - very weak with divergences for a long time.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting higher.
McClellan Summation Index - pointing lower with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - pointing lower with divergence.
Bullish Percentage - divergences.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 20d/5w/10w/20w high. The path is lower shown on the chart.

Long term cycles - week 32 from the last high from February, time for another important high and decline into 40w low.

Update and long term view

Time to look at the big picture because the indices reached the end of the road from 2009.
First short term - I see the usual double zig-zag, both Fibo measurement for c and Y point to the same area 6630-6640. Or you can count impulse if you want.
Both corrections are running one - flat and triangle so the sheeple do not see a correction and the stupid comments are getting more as usuall at the top.

Short term cycles - one more 20d cycle for 40w cycle high.

Long term - I have looked at the long term cycle charts and do not think there will be pullback b-wave and another high. Based on pattern and the cycle high below this looks like the high - I do not buy the ED count with another b-c wave... ooo I have forgotten - it did not decline for the last 1/2/3 years so it is all wrong.

The 7y cycle highs - reached 4y cycle high which is roughly 3.5 years long.

The 7y cycle lows - looks like sequence of long-long short-short 3.5 year cycles and we have the bounce from the second short cycle in the sequence.

The 9y cycle lows - the current 9y cycle has no visible candidate for the 4y cycle low(see below) - the best candidate is the sharp decline from this year.

The pattern from 7y cycle perspective starting from 2009 - I see two impulses for a-b-c.
NDX as an example - from 2020 I see impulse which is weaking and taking the shape of a wedge, but I do not think this is ED.
Cycles - I see two 18m cycle lows between the start of the impulse and the low of wave 2 and two more between the lows of wave 2 and 4. I see one 18m cycle high between the highs for wave 3 and 5 and two 18m highs between wave 1 and 3.
Fibo just a coincidence I guess - in non-logarithmic scale c=2.618xa, in logarithmic scale c=0.618xa

The pattern from 9y cycle perspective starting from 2011 - I see two zig-zags for w-x-y.
DJ as an example - from 2020 I see two impulses for a zig-zag, I do not think this is ED.
Cycles - the first 9y cycle divides perfectly in two, the current one visually looks like sequence of three 18m pairs instead of two 4y cycles.
Fibo just a coincidence I guess - in non-logarithmic scale Y=1.618xW, in logarithmic scale Y=0.618xW

Quick update

The two possible patterns - the outcome will be the same. Another interesting point is the cycle highs like echo - two highs December-February two months apart and 7 months later the same. Short said the market will turn lower into 40w cycle low November/December.

Quick update

Looking at RSI(shows b-wave not divergence), market breadth(divergence earlier and lower high now) and cycles(in the middle of some longer cycle) this looks like the most likely pattern. Confirmation will be sharp, but short living decline for c-wave.

DAX seems to be on track - the pattern I have shown a few weeks ago.

Quick update

If you look at DJ/NYSE/SPXEW you will see this pattern - the usual w-x-y with very clear subwaves. This translated in intermediate term is shown below - for now assuming b-wave correction of the rally from April.

Weekly cycles - I think we saw the 20w low next is 40w high already one week longer than the average and next is 40w low November/December.

Alternate patterns
Impulse with fifth wave ending diagonal

Expanded flat running c-wave to MA200 and 20w cycle low, RSI looks more like this not like ED.

Quick update

If you look at DJ/NYSE/SPXEW you will see something like on the first chart. Because of the AI bubble you see new high. For those cheering check November-February SPX/NDX and the other indices.
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DJ - normal corrective price action and possible impulse count from the April low

SPX - probably the same price action like DJ - corrective wave with triangle in the middle, but because of the tech overweight you see new highs. Commented about this already exatcly like November-February highs check - SPX/NDX and the other indices.

DAX - looks like triangle

Quick update

Small waves 4/5 followed by bearish weekly reversal candle, the pattern has been completed right on schedule and now move lower has started.
This is week 17 so in the next 1-3 weeks, probably mid-August, we should see 20w cycle low and higher into September.

The next important lows/highs are 40w low November/December and 40w high February/March. When the market reverses it is gradually not with a crash - what I wan to say is between now and February/March 2026 expect series of lows and highs and after that the market will dive lower. For examples look at years January-August.2000, May-December.2007, August.2021-March.2022

For now assume that there is one more high and b-wave has started, but look for the exit.

Perfect waves and Fibo measurements.

Support area and MA200 should be the target

Quick update

Right on schedule the pattern should be completed this week at week 34 for the 40w high(average 32-36 weeks), market breadth is on sell with divergences.
This is important top I think at least 40w high and there is probability this is the 4y cycle high.

Small waves 4/5 are possible to complete perfect impulse c/Y and the whole pattern.

I will not be surprised to see zig-zag like this and 4y cycle high.... too much euphoria, M-pattern topping process for 8 months, divergences - enough ingredients for important top.

Most EW guys see ED from the 2020 low... it just does not look like ED too weak second wave too long and strong third wave. If there is one more 40w high and ED it is rather this:

Quick update

Choppy price action in July, pattern looks like this.... and this should be 40w high maybe next week.

Weekly preview

The indices transition from up to down next is decline for a few weeks and 20w low. After that one more up move into September/October.... and major top completing the move from 2009. Enjoy the summer after that it will not be very funny.
For the next several weeks I will post only quick updates.



TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - turning lower, too early to project a pattern. 38% Fibo retracement is around the previous important low for the X-wave.

Intermediate term - next should be b-wave. In red the alternate bearish scenarios wave 5 or flat c/Y.

Long term - wedge(from 2020) for c/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2025.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turning lower and divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero and divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - bottoming.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - transition from 20w high to 20w low.

Long term cycles - looking at other indices and shares primarily the tech sector(it drives the market higher) the cycle model for the highs which looks best is the one shown below. It fits with the lows, makes 4y cycle high a month or two short of 4 years so it looks good.
I will follow this one, the difference is shifting the count with one 20w cycle high to the right.

Weekly preview

As expected a few more days higher to complete the 20d cycle high which should be at least 20w cycle high.
Short term it looks like we have double zig-zag - two legs with the same length in time.
Intermediate term - higher into July as expected and now pattern+cycles+market breadth pointing to completed move and time to decline into 20w cycle low for the rest of July.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like the usual double zig-zag. I see two legs with the same length and 50% Fibo correlation.

Intermediate term - next should be b-wave. In red the alternate bearish scenarios wave 5 or flat c/Y.

Long term - wedge(from 2020) for c/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2025.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - divergences and time for turn lower.
McClellan Oscillator - divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned higher and divergence.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - short and long term divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 20d and 20w cycle high.

Long term cycles - this should be 20w high and possible 40w cycle high.

Weekly preview

The leg up from the April low is completing - next is decline into 20w low.
Pattern looks close to be completed impulse or double zig-zag, market breadth turned lower, cycles close to 40w high, even if you count from the latest top in mid-February there is 4 months or 20w high - so next is decline into 20w low.

Long term - if this is 40w high we should see long b-wave until October for 40w low to digest the sharp rise and one more leg up to complete the pattern all the way back to 2009. Alternate it develops faster and it takes less time one 20w cycle high instead of 40w cycle for major top. The bearish scenario (I do not give it high probability) - we have impulse from the April low and this is either the fifth wave to complete impulse from the 2022 bottom or c-wave to complete Y-wave as a flat.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a mess for more than a month. The usual double zig-zag or impulse with very long sideways 4th wave?
Judging by the last few years it should be zig-zag.

Intermediate term - next should be b-wave. In red the alternate bearish scenarios wave 5 or flat c/Y.

Long term - wedge(from 2020) for c/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2025.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - topping with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - topping with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - bottoming with divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - next week we should see 20d high and very likely 20w high.

Long term cycles - possible 40w high next week.

Quick update

Nothing new, just more of the same mess since mid-May.

Watching a-b-c or impulse from the April low... impulse will complete just on time for 40w high.

Weekly preview

The price action looks like weak fifth wave ED to complete impulse from the April low.... probably a-wave of a bigger pattern. In this case we should see b-wave lower into July for 20w cycle low.
Big picture alternate scenarios with impulse are bearish - this is c/Y-wave and we have Y wave as a flat correction or the fifth wave of an impulse completing from the 10.2022 low.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like completed pattern from the April low.

Intermediate term - bigger b-wave not just pullback into July for 20w cycle low. In red the alternate bearish scenarios.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - with divergences, expect move lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - long term multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 5w high this week and now lower into 20w low.

Long term cycles - 40w low right on schedule and now higher into 40w high.