Quick update

Right on schedule the pattern should be completed this week at week 34 for the 40w high(average 32-36 weeks), market breadth is on sell with divergences.
This is important top I think at least 40w high and there is probability this is the 4y cycle high.

Small waves 4/5 are possible to complete perfect impulse c/Y and the whole pattern.

I will not be surprised to see zig-zag like this and 4y cycle high.... too much euphoria, M-pattern topping process for 8 months, divergences - enough ingredients for important top.

Most EW guys see ED from the 2020 low... it just does not look like ED too weak second wave too long and strong third wave. If there is one more 40w high and ED it is rather this:

Quick update

Choppy price action in July, pattern looks like this.... and this should be 40w high maybe next week.

Weekly preview

The indices transition from up to down next is decline for a few weeks and 20w low. After that one more up move into September/October.... and major top completing the move from 2009. Enjoy the summer after that it will not be very funny.
For the next several weeks I will post only quick updates.



TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - turning lower, too early to project a pattern. 38% Fibo retracement is around the previous important low for the X-wave.

Intermediate term - next should be b-wave. In red the alternate bearish scenarios wave 5 or flat c/Y.

Long term - wedge(from 2020) for c/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2025.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turning lower and divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero and divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - bottoming.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - transition from 20w high to 20w low.

Long term cycles - looking at other indices and shares primarily the tech sector(it drives the market higher) the cycle model for the highs which looks best is the one shown below. It fits with the lows, makes 4y cycle high a month or two short of 4 years so it looks good.
I will follow this one, the difference is shifting the count with one 20w cycle high to the right.

Weekly preview

As expected a few more days higher to complete the 20d cycle high which should be at least 20w cycle high.
Short term it looks like we have double zig-zag - two legs with the same length in time.
Intermediate term - higher into July as expected and now pattern+cycles+market breadth pointing to completed move and time to decline into 20w cycle low for the rest of July.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like the usual double zig-zag. I see two legs with the same length and 50% Fibo correlation.

Intermediate term - next should be b-wave. In red the alternate bearish scenarios wave 5 or flat c/Y.

Long term - wedge(from 2020) for c/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2025.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - divergences and time for turn lower.
McClellan Oscillator - divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned higher and divergence.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - short and long term divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 20d and 20w cycle high.

Long term cycles - this should be 20w high and possible 40w cycle high.