Weekly preview

This jump higher above MA10 on Friday argues that we saw the low... but so far zig-zag higher and expected 5w high. If there is more to the downside we should see turn lower... we will know next week.
It looks like a bottom, but appears at the wrong time and market breadth was very oversold so reversal without any signs of bottoming/divergence... it is suspicious.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. It is too early for daily cycle low, next week it will be confirmed or not.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term low first half in July and higher for a month.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - so far we have a-b-c higher with a=c. Next week we should see turn lower and depending on its strength we will know if we have intermediate low or to expect lower low.

Intermediate term - Next week we will know if we saw the bottom.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher from oversold level, this is what should happen - the surprise will be if we see reversal without divergences.... this will be strange.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - still in the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - heading into 5w high, this was week 4 so next week we should see turn lower into 5w cycle low.

Week 15 for the 20w cycle and week 31 for the 40w cycle high from the November high(average length 32-36 weeks).
AEX one European index to show what I was explaining last week.

Weekly preview

Finaly we are seeing capitulation phase so the indices are nearing an intermediate term low. I think this week was momentum low and we should see one more 20d cycle or two weeks before we see the price low with divergences.

Trying to pinpoint the 40w cycle low for the US indices did not work so good this time. I think the European indices are showing what is going - 40w low in March and 20w low late June/early July.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal. Minimum 2 weeks before we start watching for a bottom.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term low first half in July and higher for a month.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - either we have double zig-zag or ugly looking impulse. If this is the bottom we could say this is wave c/A and B will follow. If we see another low in a few weeks the time will be too short for B-wave so 4/x-wave is more likely.
Notice how at every low we have something like double bottom - so it will be exception if the momentum low is the low.

Intermediate term - in the next few weeks we should see a low and another rally like March this year.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - hit very oversold levels the usual behavior is the indices making one more lower low and the indicators divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - second higher low.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - very oversold.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very oversold.
Fear Indicator VIX - still in the range with lower highs.
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think this is the third 20d cycle from the current 10w cycle. From the high we have three weeks lower which means the 5w cycle is bearish and we should see lower low.

Week 5 for the 10w cycle,week 14 for the 20w cycle and week 30 for the 40w cycle high from the November high(average length 32-36 weeks).
It takes too long for the indices to hit this 40w low. It is better to look at the European indices and count the 40w low in March, now another 20w low and the last one for the 18m cycle in October/November.
You can try to argue this is the 40w low starting from October last year 9 months perfect... the problem ist I am prety sure the next important low will surprise you occuring in 5 months instead of in 8-9 months.

Weekly preview

The indices turned lower which is not a surprise - after 10w high we should see 10w low. This is the reason I am expecting some sideways pattern in the summer for the 40w high and with the deep retracement this week it is the most likely scenario. This should be wave b/B from triangle or flat.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal. After the daily high the indices turned lower and there is around 4 weeks before we see the daily low.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term sideways in June and July.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I think the indices are in some kind of b-wave - possible flat and triangle are shown.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
Expecting some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero, resetting after overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very oversold level again.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - from mid-May three shorter cycles for 5w low... probably some kind of bottom around FOMC and higher into month end for 5w high.

Next important cycle is 40w cycle high - curently week 29 from the November high(average length 32-36 weeks).

Long term - update

The big picture - it is calm before the storm... the summer July/August should be calm, but after that we will see risk off trade with stocks and commodities lower and bonds higher.

The current view for the next 6 months:
- Stocks - higher in July until mid-August and decline into year end.
- Bonds - close to 4 year cycle low, 1-2 months lower then trend reversal higher.
- USD - I think it will correct lower for a month or two then higher... similar to stocks.
- Precious metals/miners - the bigger trend is lower.
- Crude Oil - close to 4 year cycle high.



- STOCKS
The big picture - we have 4y/9y cycle high a few months ago and now declining into 4y cycle low.

Fot the next six months - expect 40w high in August and decline into 18m low Dezember/January.

- BONDS
I was expecting 18m cycle high to be completed then lower - we have it. Now we should see 4y cycle low and reversal higher. It is time for risk-off trades.

I would say final low to complete impulse for a zig-zag A-B-C.

- FOREX
In the next six months I expect to see the move which started early 2021 to be completed. Down and up shown in the rectangle then bigger correction.
I am not sure about pattern and cycles, but since the last significant high late 2016(16y cycle high) the USD should be trending lower into 16y cycle low and all we see is sideways corrective pattern lasting 5 years and counting with the price at the highs. The point is all this talk about USD death is nonsense from clueless experts as usual. The USD is building a base and we should see it much higher. But carefull first we should see scary decline to complete the 16y cycle low.

- GOLD/SILVER/MINERS
Gold - the bigger trend is lower until we see the 4y/9y cycle low.

Silver - closer look the decline is corrective. I see flat A and now zig-zag for C. Gold is stronger, but the pattern is the same.

GDXJ - the miners show the same pattern.

- CRUDE OIL
In the next few weeks we should see 4y cycle high.... 2008 is repeating, commodities verticaly higher inflation bla bla the economy took a nosedive and commodities followed suit.

USO - the pattern most likely W-X-Y completing.

Weekly preview

I think the odds shifted and it is more likely that we have 40w low and now moving into 40w high. It is not very likely to see one final lower low - it takes too long to reverse and market breadth shows too much strength.
This does not change the fact that the indices are at 10w high and June should be lower for 10w low.



TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, turn lower should be imminent.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like we have impulse so next is correction lower. Some indices made higher low on May 20th so the impulse could be part of bigger pattern. In this case the correction should take longer... this is what the cycles are pointing to.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
The trendline is broken now waiting for some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing strength for a second week, with high probability we have a bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - turned lower from overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - drifting slowly lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - hit overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d/10w high next we should see decline into 20d/5w low.

Next important cycle is 40w cycle high - curently week 28 from the November high(average length 32-36 weeks).