Trading trigger - sell signal. After the daily high the indices turned lower and there is around 4 weeks before we see the daily low.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term sideways in June and July.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I think the indices are in some kind of b-wave - possible flat and triangle are shown.
Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W. Expecting some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.
Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero, resetting after overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very oversold level again.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - from mid-May three shorter cycles for 5w low... probably some kind of bottom around FOMC and higher into month end for 5w high.
Next important cycle is 40w cycle high - curently week 29 from the November high(average length 32-36 weeks).
Why do you put 4y high in 2021 instead of January 2022 ?
ReplyDeletemay be cz NDX topped than along with dow too
DeleteBecause I think November is the high - seen on many indices and the move down is much faster than the last move up.
DeleteFrom February I see a neutral running triangle, target 3600
ReplyDeleteIs it possible for you to post a chart pls? Thanks. I also have 3600 target from some other perspective but want to know if we see any kind of bounce first and what time-frame do you think 3600 should come approx?
DeleteI can not see it...
DeleteMy count:
ReplyDeletehttps://prnt.sc/YnA6sxvIYwox
We are in the escape, it must break line bd, target around 3600 or less
I would rather stick to something more simple like double zig-zag.
DeleteI think are right for 3600
ReplyDeleteIf previous lows are broken today, won't we get much lower lows than what you have in Hurst Cycles chart (oscillating between 3900-4200)
ReplyDeleteI think my previous analysis was right with target 3600-3650.
DeleteLooking like a C wave with the 4th starting here. 5th after the fed maybe
ReplyDeleteThe new Hickson video is decidedly bearish, I wonder what your comments are on it
ReplyDeleteA few weeks before we see a bottom and move higher into 40w high.
DeleteThe theory does not work for the current 18m cycle - you have to use the European indices as proxy.
Completed pattern will look like double zig-zag, after very bearish 10w high expect the next 10w cycle to make lower low - I have ignored my analysis to stick to the cycle theory trying to force 40w low.
ReplyDeleteIt was wrong, it is time to accept that the current 40w/18m cycle does not follow the theory.
It works for the European indices - 18m low in July right on schedule, 7.5 months later 40w low(average is 7-8 months) right on schedule, now heading lower into 20w low after that the 40w high and 18m low in November.
You can count 40w low in July with lenght 9 months but I bet the next one will be only 5 months long and we will be surprised again with early bottom.
What works is the 10w cycle - in this case there is another 3-4 weeks before we see the low and move higher into 40w high.
P.S. BTC made 18m low in July and look like the current one making 3x6 month cycles instead of 2x9m.
Kasi, so you think we didn't see the bottom?
ReplyDeleteI think from January it is wave a of flat, wabe b must go up to 4500-4700
ReplyDeleteDax is the same, finishing b of b, then c of B to 15000-16000
more concretely dax is in c of b of b
DeleteVery optimistic 4200 +-50 points
DeleteCompleted double zig-zag should look like this - https://invst.ly/yc38t
ReplyDeleteTwo projections 5/c/C and C=1.618xA point to the same target 3550 to touch the trend line.
crude and sp are again synchronized ?
ReplyDeleteNot sure what you mean with synchronized .
Deleteup and down both, the last movements seem similar
Deletecrude looks like it's about to correct into a C wave, if so, then no
Deletemay be if July 2021 was 18m low and March 2022 40w low, all is everything would be clearer.
ReplyDeleteUsa and Europe would be similar
Yesterday 5w low?
ReplyDeleteMay be we will know when we see how long the bounce takes.
DeleteConsidering time we should see something like this for the rest of the year - https://invst.ly/ycfnm
ReplyDeleteThe coming move up will be big enough 10-15% but too short in time so part of the same pattern lower - not a B-wave.
2023 will be a good year?
DeleteThe best, government cheese for everyone
Delete:) pure progress
Deleterussell is in important trend line, highs 2018 and 2020 as resistance, now support?
ReplyDeletebounce from here or straight to 3550?
ReplyDelete