The big picture - it is calm before the storm... the summer July/August should be calm, but after that we will see risk off trade with stocks and commodities lower and bonds higher.
The current view for the next 6 months:
- Stocks - higher in July until mid-August and decline into year end.
- Bonds - close to 4 year cycle low, 1-2 months lower then trend reversal higher.
- USD - I think it will correct lower for a month or two then higher... similar to stocks.
- Precious metals/miners - the bigger trend is lower.
- Crude Oil - close to 4 year cycle high.
- STOCKS
The big picture - we have 4y/9y cycle high a few months ago and now declining into 4y cycle low.
Fot the next six months - expect 40w high in August and decline into 18m low Dezember/January.
- BONDS
I was expecting 18m cycle high to be completed then lower - we have it. Now we should see 4y cycle low and reversal higher. It is time for risk-off trades.
I would say final low to complete impulse for a zig-zag A-B-C.
- FOREX
In the next six months I expect to see the move which started early 2021 to be completed. Down and up shown in the rectangle then bigger correction.
I am not sure about pattern and cycles, but since the last significant high late 2016(16y cycle high) the USD should be trending lower into 16y cycle low and all we see is sideways corrective pattern lasting 5 years and counting with the price at the highs. The point is all this talk about USD death is nonsense from clueless experts as usual. The USD is building a base and we should see it much higher. But carefull first we should see scary decline to complete the 16y cycle low.
- GOLD/SILVER/MINERS
Gold - the bigger trend is lower until we see the 4y/9y cycle low.
Silver - closer look the decline is corrective. I see flat A and now zig-zag for C. Gold is stronger, but the pattern is the same.
GDXJ - the miners show the same pattern.
- CRUDE OIL
In the next few weeks we should see 4y cycle high.... 2008 is repeating, commodities verticaly higher inflation bla bla the economy took a nosedive and commodities followed suit.
USO - the pattern most likely W-X-Y completing.
Thanks so much. I assume BTC is a risk asset and we should expect lower like the rest of the market?
ReplyDeleteBTC to 20000 and then going up?
Delete@Roberto Mattheus - yes BTC moves as the indices.
Delete@Anonymous - I can not say for sure how deep, but we have clear corrective move higher so we will see lower low.
How can to take advantage of risk-off trades in bonds?
ReplyDeleteBuying some ETF like TLT...
DeleteP.S. - this is not investment advice to buy or sell anything:)
Thank you so much, Krasi, for your hard work crafting this LT Update! Any possibility that the September 27, 2021-to-date portion of GDXJ chart above be forming an expanding/reverse symmetrical triangle? Thanks again.
ReplyDeleteVery steep and fast decline for the supposed wave-d, it is more likely a reversal.
DeleteI think the legs should expand in time too so the d-wave should take more time than the b-wave.
Your thoughts/input/take most appreciated!
DeleteVery impressive, it seems it might follow suit. I mean I accept wholeheartedly what you say.
ReplyDeleteThank you for all the good work Krasi, it is a piece to keep and reread many times
DeleteTLT is the same than HYD or HYG or AGG?
ReplyDeleteI think they are different - high yield corporate it does not sound like risk-off, TLT is 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond.
DeleteWhere would you put the 40w low from March 2020?
ReplyDeleteI mean the 40w lows of crude oil
DeleteI see this - https://invst.ly/y9xot
DeleteHurst cycle analysis does not work so good for commodities. Natgas does not work at all I gave up, crude oil some what there is something like 3,5year cycle which combines in bigger cycles 7 years or 10-11years, gold is ok cycle highs analysis works best because it is making rounded bottoms and sharp highs.
Crude and sp500 are going to continue doing the same movements in the coming weeks?
ReplyDeleteI think correction in June, before continuation higher.
DeleteAny thoughts on usdjpy, it's gone parabolic
DeleteYen just double bottomed from early 2002, I think it will hold.
DeleteThanks for the analysis
ReplyDelete