Weekly preview

Finaly we are seeing capitulation phase so the indices are nearing an intermediate term low. I think this week was momentum low and we should see one more 20d cycle or two weeks before we see the price low with divergences.

Trying to pinpoint the 40w cycle low for the US indices did not work so good this time. I think the European indices are showing what is going - 40w low in March and 20w low late June/early July.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal. Minimum 2 weeks before we start watching for a bottom.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term low first half in July and higher for a month.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - either we have double zig-zag or ugly looking impulse. If this is the bottom we could say this is wave c/A and B will follow. If we see another low in a few weeks the time will be too short for B-wave so 4/x-wave is more likely.
Notice how at every low we have something like double bottom - so it will be exception if the momentum low is the low.

Intermediate term - in the next few weeks we should see a low and another rally like March this year.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - hit very oversold levels the usual behavior is the indices making one more lower low and the indicators divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - second higher low.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - very oversold.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very oversold.
Fear Indicator VIX - still in the range with lower highs.
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think this is the third 20d cycle from the current 10w cycle. From the high we have three weeks lower which means the 5w cycle is bearish and we should see lower low.

Week 5 for the 10w cycle,week 14 for the 20w cycle and week 30 for the 40w cycle high from the November high(average length 32-36 weeks).
It takes too long for the indices to hit this 40w low. It is better to look at the European indices and count the 40w low in March, now another 20w low and the last one for the 18m cycle in October/November.
You can try to argue this is the 40w low starting from October last year 9 months perfect... the problem ist I am prety sure the next important low will surprise you occuring in 5 months instead of in 8-9 months.