Trading trigger - buy signal, turn lower should be imminent.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high expected.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like we have impulse so next is correction lower. Some indices made higher low on May 20th so the impulse could be part of bigger pattern. In this case the correction should take longer... this is what the cycles are pointing to.
Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W. The trendline is broken now waiting for some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.
Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing strength for a second week, with high probability we have a bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - turned lower from overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - drifting slowly lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - hit overbought level.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d/10w high next we should see decline into 20d/5w low.
Next important cycle is 40w cycle high - curently week 28 from the November high(average length 32-36 weeks).
"and June should be lower for 10w low."
ReplyDeleteJune or July?
The indices are at 10w high so next is 10w low sometime from early to mid-July.
DeleteI think we saw 40w low which means this 10w low should be higher low.
There is high probability for a sideways pattern like flat or triangle so choppy month and even slightly lower low is possible as part of some corrective pattern.
Overall the bias should be lower until we see this 10w low lasting for the rest of June and 1 or 2 weeks from July.
Investor behavior is like major bottoms - https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert/status/1529084851344785408
ReplyDeleteSo much conflicting data
Irrelevant indicator, small investors are wrong most of the time anyway.
DeleteI see a very interesting count in crude oil, from March diametric in bow tie, wave F must start to 95 very soon
ReplyDeleteNasdaq has a gap open in 14200, is it possible to go up in sumner to close it ?
ReplyDeleteIt is not possible to predict how much a correction will retrace. I expect some sideways pattern, so more shallow on the other side 50% retracement is not something special.... anything I say will be just a guess at the moment.
Deletethe gap is in 14800
DeleteThere is two gaps one at 50% and one at 62% retracement.... the second one looks too much to me.
DeleteLol. well than how about the gaps in 6000s or even in 3000s in the last few years? So many gaps near covid lows just about 2 years ago.
DeleteKrasi, what is your current view now after today's massacre? Is lower low in 3600s still in the cards? Appreciate it thanks.
ReplyDelete