Weekly preview

a-b-c higher as expected and now something lower. Idealy this decline is b-wave and the correction continues to complete 20w high. Alternate the indices continue lower and make lower low with divergence for 40w low.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the zig-zag is completed now this should be a b-wave.

Intermediate term - currently I expect test of the MA200 and lower low with divergence.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new in the middle of the ranges.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - maybe 20d low or early next week.

The indices are in the time band for 40w cycle low, average length is 32-36 weeks.
The perfect 10w/20w/40w cycles model using NDX(the other indices are the same) pretty good length and sequence highs/lows - https://invst.ly/19ql3q

Weekly preview

Some corrective move higher as expected. Short term I think it will take another week or two for this move up to be completed.
Intermediate term - if you look at other indices like DJ,NYSE,SPXEW,XVG the last important high was the end of November and this leg up should be 20w high then one more lower low should follow 20w/40w low... waves 4 and 5 from the November high?

So 1-2 weeks higher then lower low the second half of April to complete the decline from the end of November high(40w low) then higher May/June/July(40w high).


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - corrective move higher, currently in the b-wave.

Intermediate term - currently I expect test of the MA200 and lower low with divergence.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, no oversold levels or something to suggest important low.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - early next week 20d low then higher. The 20w highs and lows synchronized with other indices like NYSE,SPXEW,XVG.

Possible scenario for the long term cycles.... the indices are in the time band for 40w cycle low, average length is 32-36 weeks.

Weekly preview

Big decline on Monday and since then trying to find bottom. Short term there is a zig-zag a-b-c, but there is no guarantee it is not an impulse 1-2-3.
Best case we have a bottom, worst case it is an impulse with waves 4-5 to be completed in the next weeks.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - distribution running for several months, close to 4y cycle high. Intermediate term low soon and higher into May/June.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible zig-zag or it could be impulse, waiting for w4 or reversal.

Intermediate term - some kind of a-b-c lower to MA200 should be completing. Next we should see another corrective pattern higher into May/June.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - closer to oversold levels, but still no important signals....
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - some retracement.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d/5w cycle highs next week followed by 20w low?

Possible scenario for the long term cycles.... the indices are in the time band for 40w cycle low, average length is 32-36 weeks.

Weekly preview

The decline continued this week. I think we should see intermediate term low soon and higher for 40w high into May/June which should be major top.
All this aligns perfect with the USD - it looks like c-wave lower to around 96-97 is running to complete the correction from the 2022 top.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - distribution running for several months, close to 4y cycle high. Intermediate term low soon and higher into May/June.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another double zig-zag.... now it is time for a move in the opposite direction.

Intermediate term - some kind of a-b-c lower to MA200 should be completing. Next we should see another corrective pattern higher into May/June.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no important signals....
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher, probably retracement next week.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible path for the cycles. Higher next week for 5w high.

Possible scenario for the long term cycles.... the indices should be close to 40w low.

Weekly preview

Decline as expected... and another zig-zag. For the last three months there is so many of them in both directions - it is a mess dificult to decipher with a lot of room for interpretations.
The pattern is a mess, market breadth indicators in the middle of their ranges - no signs of something important, cycles - best we should see 18m low soon followed by 18m/4y high in May/June. For now ist just waiting....


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - distribution running for several months, close to 4y cycle high. Intermediate term not clear.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - maybe expanding structure... I do not know too many zig-zags in both directions.

Intermediate term - I have never seen expanding diagonals/triangles... but for now this is the only pattern which makes some sense.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but still in the middle of their ranges.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - turned higher for 20d cycle high currently day 7. Trying to make sense of this mess - possible 10w/20w cycle lows/highs.

Possible scenario for the long term cycles....