Apr 17, 2025
Quick update
It is Easter this weekend so just a quick update... in fact nothing much to update. Short term the move higher continues as expected. Intermediate term I expect one more push lower to complete the decline.
Short term pattern - this week looks like the expected corrective price action in the middle of this move higher.
Short term cycles from 20d to 20w cycle highs and lows. It looks perfect now waiting to see if it will play out.
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You have said in the previous post that gold is major top 16 year cycle high.
ReplyDeleteBefore that there will be 4 years low this year around 2600 ?, middle of the channel since 2015
Yes, we should see sharp decline and probably test of the high next year.
DeleteWith the blow off this could be the 16y high and next year lower high like 2011-2012
Same high divergences appeared July '20 - April '22, but to a lesser extent - same result.
DeleteWhat about ndx and spy?
ReplyDeleteSee the charts above.
DeleteYesterday 20d low and maybe 5w low ?
ReplyDeleteJust 20d low at day 10.
DeleteNew all-time highs coming for world markets, Wally in strong recovery with Trump backtracking on duties, Europe in great rise with DAX superlative. Buy stocks for the next few months and leave bonds.
ReplyDeleteGood luck
DeletePerhaps we should consider that 7 April was 10w low and then 40w low early June.
ReplyDeleteIf not there will not be time to drop around 4100 in 2-3 weeks
This will be way too long 11 months... ans with such strong moves time is usually shorter not longer.
Delete4100 is way too low my worst case scenario is 4600-4700... and it could be easily higher low or test of the low.
4500 is very important: 38% since 2016 and 62% since 2022 lows
DeleteI am watching the support level and MA200 weekly - https://invst.ly/1a4snh
DeleteBreak below this levels is not likely now....
It would be 83d for the 80d cycle since 13th January, long but in range possible
ReplyDeleteI hope 4700 comes
ReplyDeleteThe reversal in 2007 shows the same sequence - top followed by slightly higher high, 20% decline, some retracement, now waiting to see if the bottom will be tested.
ReplyDeleteCurrently we are where the arrow points - https://invst.ly/1a5yai
As in the most satisfying sports bets, what is expected does not happen and it will be precisely for that reason that the economic successes of the bet on the unexpected will be relevant. In fact, the masses follow the general wave and as happened with covid, they had to be accompanied into the ditch of the short and then climb towards infinite heights.
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