Weekly preview

Now we have pattern which looks completed, cycles which look completed and market breadth at extreme overbought levels. Next is reversal and decline into 20w/18m/4y cycle low.

Interesting observations... maybe we will know more after we see the decline(I suspect big sideways pattern):
- market breadth moves from one extreme(oversold) to the other(overbought) and back several times... this is not trending market.
- cycles have different rhytm not what the theory says(length and proportion)... I have seen such thing with sideways patterns triangle for example.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process during the holidays.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like another double zig-zag and I suspect the high was two weeks ago.

Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... next should be decline probably C-wave for a flat.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low.If we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - extremely overbought.
McClellan Oscillator - multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - extremely overbought.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - extremely overbought.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - extremely overbought.
Advance-Decline Issues - touched overbought and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - short term divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - after 20d low the indices are at 20d high. This is the third 20d cycle for extended 5w cycle high and this is the fourth extended 5w cycle for extended 20w cycle high.
I have the suspicion the 20w high was earlier, it could be confirmed when we see the next 5w high.

Week 9 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 22 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
From the October.2022 low the cycles do not follow the theoretical model.
The highs - we have one 40w high and one 18m high consisting of 3x20w extended cycles instead of 2x40w, but the same average length 15-16 months.
The lows - we have 20w and 40w cycle, I guess one more 20w cycle(the current one) to complete 18m/4y cycle.

Weekly preview

Topping has begun. Short term more likely finished zig-zag alternate impulse and this is wave 4 correction. Intermediate term lower for 1-2 weeks for 10w low and higher for 5w high... so holidays and topping

Enjoy the holidays!!!! Not expecting dramatic events in the markets.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process during the holidays.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the second leg completed... a-b-c zig-zag, until we see technical damage it still could be 1-2-3 and this is reaction lower wave 4.

Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... next should be decline probably C-wave for a flat.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low.If we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - topping, some with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, very overbought.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, overbought.
Bullish Percentage - overbought.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - overbought.
Advance-Decline Issues - could not reach overbought level, double divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have mature 20w cycle high and first reaction lower... I expect some kind of topping, usually M-pattern(two highs). The logical path is 10w low and 5w high after the holidays then decline into 20w low.

Week 8 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 21 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.

Weekly preview

Higher into FOMC and blow off end of the B-wave. From the high at the end of 2021 we have two very simillar moves and the pattern with high probability is flat. The 20d cycle high at day 10 and the 20w cycle high at week 20, double or simple zig-zag higher near completition or completed, indicators and market breadth with divergences and the most important the herd gone crazy.... smells like the top.
Expect some topping during the holidays like 2021 and then lower to complete the C-wave and 4y cycle low.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process during the holidays.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - looking at other indices the pattern is double zig-zag w-x-y alternate simple zig-zag a-b-c.

Intermediate term - two very similar moves including indicators. The bigger pattern is flat.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - very overbought some with divergencies.
McClellan Oscillator - ovebought with double divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy, signal, overbought level reached.
Bullish Percentage - overbought.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - overbought.
Advance-Decline Issues - could not reach overbought level, double divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - tripple low?


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d cycle high at week 20 so this should be 20w high... if not we have extended 10w/20w cycles with one more 20d cycle to go.

Week 7 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 20 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.

Weekly preview

Nothing new, choppy week not much price action.
Based on short term cycles the indices should move higher into FOMC, but again based on cycles we are in the time window for intermediate term high followed by 2-3 months decline.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. In the time window for a high.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term high in 1-2 weeks.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - trying to find some pattern in this sideways mess... NYSE/DJI and RSI say the pattern is double zig-zag with Fibo mesaurements show the top 40 points higher from the current level. Variations are possible like b/y is triangle and completes around FOMC then c/y.

Intermediate term - we have a-b-c/B with complex b/B wave. SPX looks like expanding triangle, but if you look NYSE or DJIA it is a running flat. This pattern works for almost every index.
Alternate the B-wave started earlier in June.2022 which does not change much... only b/B is bigger.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
Example pattern for "lucky b-wave".

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - time for a top, but no reversal yet.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - at overbought level 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short and long term divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - short and long term divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - third low at the same level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - in the middle of the next 20d cycle high. Somewhere in this sideways mess we have 5w high and low and now moving higher into 5w/10w/20w cycle high.

Week 6 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 19 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.

Weekly preview

NYSE and DJI catching up this week. This is the final wave c/B there will be no pullback and higher for a zig-zag. That is all for the B-wave probably one more 20d cycle for 2-3 weeks... or it just turns lower next week all this at mid-4y cycle high two years after the 4y high.
The first week this move started I wrote this wave behaves like final c-wave not like a beginning a-wave or correction b/2-wave. Now it is clear why - because it is c-wave. The pattern is shown on the daily chart - it has high probability because it works for almost every US index... just NDX is a little bit different.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term high in 2-3 weeks.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like impulse but I doubt it. I would say it is a double zig-zag and next week we should see completed a-wave and b-wave from the second zig-zag. If not it is a simple zig-zag makes a high next week c=a and it is over.

Intermediate term - I do not expect zig-zag to complete B anymore - this is the final wave c/B. We have a-b-c/B with complex b/B wave - SPX looks like expanding triangle but if you look NYSE or DJIA it is a running flat. This pattern works for almost every index.
Alternate the B-wave started earlier in June.2022 which does not change much... only b/B is bigger.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing higher and overbought, there is some long term divergence... wait for a turn lower.
McClellan Oscillator - divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, long term divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - close to overbought.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - overbought.
Advance-Decline Issues - close to overbought, long term divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the previous low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have shallow 5w low, now the fourth 20d cycle is running. The last 5w high counts better as extended so one more 20d cycle looks better, but it is not a guarantee - we have four 20d cycle for a second 10w high and 20w high.

Week 5 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 18 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.

Weekly preview

Holiday this week, nothing new to analyze.... bigger zig-zag until the end of the year expected, alternate this is the intermediate term top. The only difference with last week is market breadth has the bare minimum to say maybe this is a top.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks, probably into year end.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag, more likely part of a bigger zig-zag.

Intermediate term - there is two options w2 of C(very low odds) or e-wave completing the B-wave.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - still pointing higher, but now they have reset after oversold levels so turn lower is possible.
McClellan Oscillator - divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - rising.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - touched overbought.
Advance-Decline Issues - close to overbought
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the previous low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - two scenarios decline into 5w low and last push for extended 20w cycle high or this is the 20w high with three extended 5w cycles.

Week 4 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 17 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.

Weekly preview

The expected wave up from last week played out... almost done. Now we have pretty obvius two impulses higher for a zig-zag a-b-c.
The question is - is that all or is it part of the usual double zig-zag. From pattern and cycle perspective there is enough for a high, but market breadth looks like in the middle of a move not a top. If this is the top this should be wave 2 of C impulse for a flat correction... not very likely. I would say the odds are higher for a double zig-zag into year end.

Another interesting point - this could be the final wave to complete wave-B as a triangle. Some hints - the pattern makes sense at last with double zig-zag wave-A and triangle, strong wave typical for final wave not 2/b explained this at the beginning of the move, most of the "magnificent 7" are completing the fifth final wave from their lows last year with weekly and monthly RSI divergence, the rule of alternation - it is not likely that both waves A and C of a correction look the same starting with weak wave lower, two years between the highs like 2018-2019 now 2022-2023 for half 4y cycle high.


It looks strange the triangle, but it is because of the tech stocks. Look at NYSE or RSP(equaly weighted SPX) one more zig-zag higher and we will have triangle retracing 68%, overall pattern and cycle will look very good... or keep dreaming about cup with handle.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks, probably into year end.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - completed the zig-zag, more likely part of a double zig-zag.

Intermediate term - there is two options w2 of C(very low odds) or e-wave completing the B-wave.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - moving higher, in the middle of a move... not a top.
McClellan Oscillator - second lower high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - third 20d cycle completing the third extended 5w cycle. Next should be decline into 5w low.
Either we have average 20w cycle high consisting of 3x5w extended cycles or we will see one more 5w cycle for extended 20w cycle.

Week 3 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 16 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.

Weekly preview

There is no reversal so with high probability we have wave a/1 lower now b/2 running higher into 20w cycle high.
This cycle is already 15 weeks long and if it has average length the high should be in 1-2 weeks, but looking at market breadth it should take longer to reset from oversold levels.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - no change, a completed and b running the question is how long it will take.

Intermediate term - no change, a low at the support area and b-wave running.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - moving higher.
McClellan Oscillator - declining after very overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - declining.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - a few days higher as expected and this should be at least 5w cycle. In this case decline into 5w low should follow.
Less likely one more 20d cycle to complete three longer 5w cycles and 20w high(both scenarios shown on the chart).

Week 2 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 15.

Weekly preview

Strong bounce, high probability that we have 20w/intermediate term low. This is not a surprise rather the way it played out - it looks like c-wave with this gaps. In theory this should be the first leg of a b-wave, but with this gaps there is a danger to exhaust quickly... like March.2022 when second leg lower followed for double zig-zag.
Short said as I pointed out last week there is something strange with the pattern so surprises are possible.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term - possible low, but something does not feel right.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - completed w-y-z or impulse which breaks the rules. The "surprise" pattern zig-zag lower a-wave, expanded flat b-wave and another zig-zag lower.

Intermediate term - a low at the support area and b-wave running, or one more decline c=a to the next support area around 3900 MA200 weekly.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher.
McClellan Oscillator - touched overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - higher for 20d high as expected, this should be 5w cycle high in the next few days - in this case we should see turn lower into 5w cycle low.

Week 16+1 for the 20w cycle. Possible 20w low, I have some doubts because of the pattern - lets see if we have confirmation next week.