May 23, 2026

Update

As expected double top for diivergence on the daily chart. Perfect wave needs iv-v/5. It will run the stops and suck in the last sucker buying the "break out" while making double top with double divergence.
The next top was expected somewhere between mid and end of May - theere you have it 18 weeks, right on schedule.

May 16, 2026

Update

In March the expectation was for a move higher into mid-May or later then decline into 18m low in July. Now we have the move up into mid-May but different than expected. Instead of retrace and letting it bleed into July we see double down on greed. The result - now it is 100% sure it is GAME OVER.
Market breadrth - awful for months, double and tripple divergences long term. Indicators with divergences monthly and weekly.
Cycles - 18m high, 4y high, 20w high... could last another week if we are lucky.
Pattern - from 2020 some see completed impulse, I see a-b-c. Most bullish this is the top of wave-3 so expect 20% or more correction for wave-4 and final fifth wave - I highly doubt it.
Short term the only "positive" signs - RSI was overbought and just turned lower so maybe we need to see divergence and other indices like NYSE,SPXEW,DAX made a 5w low the end of April and after that we have one zig-zag up and down... it does not feel like completed pattern. There is two possiblities - triangle or flat, triangle will take too much time so more likely flat.
This could give us another week, week and a half for the pattern and the 20w high to be completed.... or it just continues lower who knows.

If it is impulse it is done - ther trend line is broken and we have ugly daily and weekly cnadles. There is a chance watching other indices that it is complex pattern and there is a flat to be completed testing the trend line and double top before turning lower for a long time.
Pattern - minimum decline 20% to 6000 for wave-4. I do not buy this, it is over.
Short term cycles - turned lower exacly at the day... if we are lucky there is one more week.
Long term cycles - 18m and 4y cycle highs.