Weekly preview

NDX/SPX followed the other indices with one week delay. The move from the August low is complete and with very high probability correction for 3-4 months into 40w low should follow(see the DJ chart from previous week).

Short term either we have a low or early next week and higher for the holidays.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - The second leg lower has 4,236 Fibo extension and it should be extended third wave... this is not typical for c-wave.
But for an impulse I want to see one more leg lower... even with sligthly higher low - 5=1.618x1 is between the two lows iii/3 and v/3. The RSI trend line has not been so the move lower is intact.

Intermediate term - the first target should be MA200 and support in the 5600-5700 area.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators with oversold levels... bounce and one more decline expected.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold level and retracement.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversold level.
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold level.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher and retracement.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low in the next days(or hit already) and retracement higher for 5w high.
Speculating that we have three extended 10w cycles for the 40w cycle...

Completed 40w cycle high at week 36, in the upper range of the time band, but still average length which is 32-36 weeks.
Now we should see move lower into 40w cycle low. If it has average length the low should be late March/early April.
Maybe we will see 40w cycle, which visualy divides in three... like this

Weekly preview

Still waiting for confirmation of a completed pattern. DJ/NYSE/SPXEW are declining for two weeks and it looks like reversal, but NDX helps the SPX to stay around the highs.
Short term we still could see wave b/2 for DJ/NYSE/SPXEW and wave 5/c of a diagonal for SPX.
Intermediate term the indices are at a high which will result in several months correction - shown below on the DJ chart, SPX is the same I just have DJ chart with anotations.


TRADING
Trading trigger - neutral signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term at 40w cycle high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - completed w-x-y and b/2 now, or a-b-c and waiting for 5/c.

Intermediate term - regular tops for 40w high followed by roughly 3 months correction and 40w low. The size of the correction will show if we have completed w-x-y from 2022 or something else.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower and divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 5w/20w/40w high or not waiting for confirmation. The lows - either short 20w cycle or longer 10w cycle... the the 5w cycle looks longer too... not very clear picture.

Week 36+1 for the 40w high - in the upper range of the time band which is average 32-36 weeks.