Nov 30, 2011

Short term update

Wow that was fast:) Perfect touch of 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 3% gap on Monday kill the Idea of retesting the low.
Today SP500 reached the target so the alternate scenario for higher prices kicks in next target ~1300-1310.

Nov 27, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

The support levels have been broken so I am bearish now for the intermediate term.
For the short term I think we will see a relief rally in December and a lower low in the end of January.
Alternate scenario with low probability for now is moving higher to the next resistance level around ~1300.

Closer look at the 60min chart. There is no signs of a bottom which means lower low ahead. Support levels are the 1,618 projections of the previous down leg(76 points) from the last two peaks. 1140 is strong support too, so I expect a bottom between 1140 and 1150. Relief rally in December with first target 1220-1230.

The cycles are pointing to a bottom next week and a rally but the bigger 20W nominal cycle is pointing down to a bottom in the end of January or early February so the move in December should be just a relief rally.

The McClellan Oscillator is very stretched witch means a bounce but a lower low before a bottom.

Nov 23, 2011

Short term update

Support did not hold so the picture is looking more bearish now. The cycles and the indicators have shown a sell off into the end of November but I was expecting that support around 50% retracement will hold.....
Currently SP500 at 1166 and 61,8% retracement at 1160. I still think there will be a rally in December but only to relief the oversold conditions. Lets see how it will look like. After that for January early February a lower low than this one in November. Charts on the weekend.

Nov 21, 2011

Short term update

Not a bad forecast from the weekend:)
I think its a 3 leg correction. The exact numbers 50% retracement is 1183 and A=C 76 points again 1183 (from the end of B and not from the highest point). My forecast working on a bottom this week and early next week followed by a rally with initial target the minor highs ~1265 to ~1275.

Nov 19, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

I have not guessed the real path of the short term moves but the plan stays the same - short term bottom around the end of November and moving higher in December.
The market is consistent in one thing - the most probable outcome fails. Everybody were focus on the triangle and it has failed:) Now everybody are so bearish expecting a crash. How high are the odds when everybody expect a crash with VIX at 32 and it actually happens? - very low if you ask me.

I am expecting some kind of a bottom and a rally in December with max target the resistance zone around 1300-1310. Why?
- MACD is reseting, nearing the trend line and the zero line. It should touch them next week.
- Histogram is reseting and reached the average trough low.
- The move is corrective. It has nothing to do with impulse or trend move.
If I am wrong - plunge through support 1190 and MA50 with first targets 1175 and 1140

Possible short term moves. Wait for the open on Monday. Usually the Thanksgiving week is positive. If the indexes open lower see the chart bellow. If the indexes open higher probably moving higher Monday to Wednesday than red days Friday and Monday next week. Just invert the chops.
Support is 76 points measured move ~1200 and 50% retracement ~1187. I will start to worry when this levels are decisively breached. Till then I stay bullish for December.

Nov 12, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

Crazy market up and down up and down chop chop chop....

Expect more choppiness whit upward bias in November whit tradeable low around the end of November.
I do not know the exact path, my best guess is shown on the chart short living top ~1310 and support around 1220.

Closer look at the hourly chart, probably a triangle... Third scenario with low probability not shown above is the triangle broken to the downside with target between support ~1190 and measured move ~1200.

Nov 8, 2011

Short term update

UPDATE 09.11
That was fast:) I though 2-3 days hanging around before the correction... I think it has begun.

The alternate scenario is playing out...
I think there is 3 to 5 days up with max target ~1310 (it could be lower high too) followed by a correction to the support zone ~1190 till end of November early December. The move does not look impulsive, even it shoots up that will be an exhaustion - take profits and/or sell short.
That is my daily chart with Hurst cycles shown. When the trend line is broken that means the bigger cycle will begin moving lower.

Nov 1, 2011

Short term update

Ok my first target was ~1220... but just crazy with the elevator up and down.
I was expecting at least 2-3 days sideways or up and some kind of a top on the smaller charts... no with the elevator straight down.
Next some relief to reset the oscillators on the 60min chart and lower prices ahead.