Nov 27, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

The support levels have been broken so I am bearish now for the intermediate term.
For the short term I think we will see a relief rally in December and a lower low in the end of January.
Alternate scenario with low probability for now is moving higher to the next resistance level around ~1300.

Closer look at the 60min chart. There is no signs of a bottom which means lower low ahead. Support levels are the 1,618 projections of the previous down leg(76 points) from the last two peaks. 1140 is strong support too, so I expect a bottom between 1140 and 1150. Relief rally in December with first target 1220-1230.

The cycles are pointing to a bottom next week and a rally but the bigger 20W nominal cycle is pointing down to a bottom in the end of January or early February so the move in December should be just a relief rally.

The McClellan Oscillator is very stretched witch means a bounce but a lower low before a bottom.

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