Weekly preview

Heading higher into 10w high as expected... either we saw the high on Friday or early next week before FOMC. The move is weak and slow so the indices are heading into intermediate term high.
I expect to see sharp decline for 2-3 weeks 20w low and one more high, alternate this is the 18m high. We will know when we see the size of the decline.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some complex corrective pattern which is completed or close to completition. I see double zig-zag X-wave and another zig-zag.

Intermediate term - removed the triangle does not look very likely. Added some labels for the decline - complex pattern zig-zag plus expanded flat. Interesting it works for most of the indices and synchronizes with the Eruopean indices.
The more important question is - is this the high or later in two months? From cycle perspective a high in two months will fit perfect, but often it does not play out perfect just close enough. We can be sure only when we see the next decline.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing weakness and lower highs.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs and short term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - weak, lower high, below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - lower highs, below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower, again half a point shy of 17.5 - to hit the long term trend line.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to the next 20d high at week 8 so this should be 10w high. After that decline for 2-3 weeks should follow for 10w low.

Week 15 for the 20w cycle. It is not clear what is going on with 20w cycle low - we have 5 weeks higher when we should see a decline, it is unusuall but sharp decline for 2-3 weeks could do the job completing flat correction.
The most obvious 18m low is in October, alternate 18m low in June.

Weekly preview

Reversals down and up this week - this should be 5w cycle low and next 10w high. As I wrote last week patience is needed, it is difficult to guess what exactly is going on. It is not clear what is going on with 20w cycle low or this could be the 18m cycle high so it is better to wait for more clarity.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - something complex or it just reverses lower next week who knows.

Intermediate term - currently I am watching this two options. Surprises are possible lets see how the next few weeks look like.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower after very overbought levels and then higher.
McClellan Oscillator - topping after very overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - up and down in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - up an down.
Advance-Decline Issues - up and down in overbought teritory.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw move lower into 20d cycle low as expected. This should be 5w cycle low next we should see move higher into 20d cycle high.... I guess 10w cycle high at week 8.

Week 14 for the 20w cycle. Alternate option the indices are moving higher into 18m high. I have shown this two charts, cycles divide very well in three instead of two RUT - https://invst.ly/-11t0 and SPX - https://invst.ly/-11sp.
The most obvious 18m low is in October, alternate in June.

Weekly preview

With the price action this week the question is what happens if the indeces continue higher - the answer is this will be the top of the B-wave and 18 month high. It makes more sense if this is still b/B-wave running maybe as sideways pattern. With so much "bullishness" the price retraced only 62% so far... on the other side we have market breadth indicators which are extremely overbought - strange if this occurs at the top of some lower degree b-wave.
We have to wait a few weeks for more clarity, but do not get exited and buy this "bullishness" - the question is how the correction the waves b-c/B will play out and not if we have reversal.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - questionable... lower until early February expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag higher which should complete soon.

Intermediate term - changed one of the options from flat to zig-zag(red). It is better to wait a few weeks before making conclusions... even higher high and completed B-wave is possible.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some extremely overbought, and some with possible divergence if we see higher high. The price is not showing even close such strength.
McClellan Oscillator - extremely overbought.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving higher, but below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving higher, above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - lower low, one point lower around 17.5 and it will hit the long term rising trendline from 2017.
Advance-Decline Issues - extremely overbought.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d high next week we should see something lower fot 20d low. If we have shorter 20d cycles this could be 10w high.

Week 13 for the 20w cycle. If you look at the weekly charts you will see 10 weeks beetween the last two lows - way too short for 20w low. I have seen shorter cycles 13-14 weeks, but 10 is too short. RSI crossed above the MA, but it is more likely this is sideways correction and not turn higher - not so rare two occasions shown on the chart.
The most obvious 18m low is in October, alternate in June if we have triangle B-wave.

Weekly preview

Third sideways week... and on Friday booom - this should be the missing c-wave for the correction.
This move "up" is corrective and now takes longer than the previous decline retracing only 38% - so I expect one final flush lower to complete the decline with 20w low. I am following this analysis for weeks and it will be proven right or wrong next week... it will be really strange to see continuation higher.

The bigger picture - the move lower does not look like reversal rather it is part of a bigger corrective pattern.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this should be the c-wave for the pattern higher.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. The last leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat, so far the current leg lower is too slow and choppy for reversal so d/B or b/B.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, I think for a short term high and not a reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned up, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up.
Fear Indicator VIX - there is no much fear... some sideways mess.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not very clear...
The highs - too long for 5w high too short for 10w high - a guess the next 20w high will consist of three longer 5w cycles.
The lows - I think currently in the final 5w cycle. The 20w cycle looks like the previous one no clear 10w low... maybe three longer 5w cycles too.

Week 12 for the 20w cycle.... it will be strange if see reversal higher instead of a few weeks lower to complete the cycle.
The most obvious 18m low is in October - this will fit with flat B-wave. I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this will fit with triangle B-wave.

Long term - update

Happy New Year!!!!

All assets show similar pattern - we have 4y cycle high behind us and in 2023 we should see the final declines into 4y cycle low.
The current view for the next 6 months:
- Stocks - one more push higher then final leg lower for 4 year cycle low.
- Bonds - after one sell off the move higher into 4 year cycle high will continue.
- USD - maybe we saw the high, but when we see fear and all the other asset classes sell off, I expect strong move higher even if it is a lower high.
- Precious metals/miners - final leg lower and 9 year cycle low.
- Crude Oil - the correction lower to continue.



- STOCKS
I think the correction could last until March/April for 18m high, but the trend is lower for 4 year cycle low.

- BONDS
we saw one final flush lower and 4 year cycle low now moving higher into 4 year cycle high.

- FOREX
I was expecting to see the high and it seems we have a reversal.
Next year we should see fear which means spike higher for the USD probably lower high then the bigger decline begins.... I guess something like this(EUR/USD chart).

- GOLD/SILVER/MINERS
Gold - the bigger trend is lower until we see the 4y/9y cycle low. Very strong November it looks like reversal, but it will be strange to see the 4y low in just 2.5 years.

In fact the 9y cycle counts visually better if you divide it in three 3x2.6 years roughly 7.5-8 years, but the result is exactly the same Q4.2023 - the average length for 9y cycle.

GDXJ - miners the same cycle pattern we should see one final decline for 9 year cycle low and completed double zig-zag.

Closer look - perfect pattern with Fibo measurements price and time looks like this:

- CRUDE OIL
We saw a high as expected, this should be 4 year cycle high and now declining into 4 year cycle low.