Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high expected.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - something complex or it just reverses lower next week who knows.
Intermediate term - currently I am watching this two options. Surprises are possible lets see how the next few weeks look like.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower after very overbought levels and then higher.
McClellan Oscillator - topping after very overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - up and down in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - up an down.
Advance-Decline Issues - up and down in overbought teritory.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw move lower into 20d cycle low as expected. This should be 5w cycle low next we should see move higher into 20d cycle high.... I guess 10w cycle high at week 8.
Week 14 for the 20w cycle. Alternate option the indices are moving higher into 18m high. I have shown this two charts, cycles divide very well in three instead of two RUT - https://invst.ly/-11t0 and SPX - https://invst.ly/-11sp.
The most obvious 18m low is in October, alternate in June.
Instead of 18m high, is there any possibility that we just came out of 18m low?
ReplyDeleteNo
DeleteKrasi, the spy cross the doun trend line, the NDX is too
ReplyDeleteLady S indicator flashing
DeleteOf course it will cross the trend line - this is different move B-wave not part of the previous decline.
DeleteSo time wise, where do you see the B wave finishing? In the intermediate time frame chart, you show it but it's finishing much later.
DeleteOne more 10w cycle two months or now
DeleteJust to clarify, Krasi, could your prior comment content "... or now" possibly be "... or so" instead, or are you giving an either/or timeframe of now or two months from now? Thanks much.
Deleteeither/or time frame it will look better if we see 20w low in a few weeks and 20w high in two months.
DeleteAlternate this is the top.
This 20w high in two months could be a lower high than now and must be 18m high too
DeleteOnly if we have a triangle...
DeleteThank you
ReplyDeleteThere is a gap open in 4280, maybe a possible target
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, Sentient Trader talks about 54 month cycles. I guess these are 3 18-month cycles. How does this vary from the 4 year cycle?
ReplyDeleteAlso in the latest video, he talks about Bitcoin coming out of 54 month cycles low. If you watch it, can you share your opinion on why the cycle timing may be incorrect if compared with your analysis? https://youtu.be/zQpcW-ucNz4
It is the same - in the Hurst cycle theory it is 54 months or 4.5 years, but every asset has its own rhythm deviating a little bit from the theory length.
DeleteThe US indices have shorter cycles and this one 54 months usually lasts 3.5-4 years... I just call it 4 year cycle which is in the middle between the extremes 3.5 and 4.5 years.
There will be one final sell off and crypto is nothing special to be spared, so no I do not think this is the low.
DeleteThank you for answering my question!
DeleteThe index of my country is shit, but it has reached a very important point
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hWqzFy2H/
And all the indices do the same movements...