Apr 28, 2018

Weekly preview

Short term view - waiting to see what happens on Monday how exactly the triangle will play out.
Intermediate term view - the price action looks like a triangle to me, waiting for the low of wave 4 from Feb.2016 bottom.

We had the corrective leg lower as expected, but it is developing too fast which raises the odds for a bullish triangle.

With another corrective leg this week the odds that we have a triangle are even higher and it is difficult to see other decent pattern. The challenge now is to find the bottom of the triangle. The price action from Friday raises the odds for wave 4/5 and impulse from the last low, which means the white triangle(see below). We can only wait and see what happens on Monday. No need to make a decision.
Alternate options are bearish triangle and bearish 1-2 i-ii.... not really favorable at the moment.

Short term - I see two variations of a triangle.... at the moment the white one is slightly more favorable because of potential wave 4 from Friday.

Intermediate term - waiting for a finished triangle and the final wave V. The price is still trapped between MA50 and MA200 and we have indecision. I think we will see a bullish outcome and steep rally - thrust from a triangle because of short covering.

Long term - expecting one final rally. The histogram comparison continue to work. We have sideway price action for 5 weeks and now only the final piece is missing sell off and weekly reversal with bullish candle.

Market Breadth Indicators - slightly positive... nothing interesting, I suppose we will see higher lows when the triangle is finished and we have intermediate term low.
McClellan Oscillator - at the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - hovering around 15.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, lower high, one more sell off and test of the oversold level will look good.

Day 19 of the 40 day cycle. Most likely we saw mid cycle low and bounce from it. I can not say if the cycle will make higher or lower high.

Week 11 and heading for 40 week cycle low with the low for wave E of the triangle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Day 6 of a buy setup.... just 0,3 points shy to be negated. Most likely this will happen on Monday unless we see 40 points drop. The bears are not convincing either... normal for a triangle.

Apr 25, 2018


We have a corrective move lower to the expected area, but it is moving very fast. The problem is the indicators and cycles do not point to a low, they need more time. So if the corrective action continue for another week the indicators/cycles will look ok. The weekly histogram and the price action will look like in 2011 and 2015(I am showing this for several weeks). TNX will finish the fifth wave and make and intermediate term high. Too many signs for a bullish outcome and this shifts the odds to the bullish triangle and wave E of it already running or even this is the low.

The alternate scenarios if we see reversal now - bigger leg of bullish/bearish triangle or the bearish options they do not fit with indicators and market breadth....

I hope this scenario will play out, it will be great for trading. The other options are another two months crap.

Apr 22, 2018

Weekly preview

Short term view - bounce and lower again.
Intermediate term view - I do not see important low, some corrective pattern is running probably triangle and it will continue until the summer... June.

We saw two days higher and some jumped on the bullish bandwagon wave 3. I have warned last week every move higher has been sold not a single day has closed at the high for the day - this week was not different green candles with upper shadows... not very convincing at all. I wrote it is corrective move and three days later we have the confirmation with overlapping.
Looking at different indexes we have the full spectrum - Europe/XBI impulse, NDX/RUT strong but only 3 waves, SPX/DJI a-b-c but weaker, XLF/EEM some crap lower low likely.... not helpful at all looking for a common pattern.

I can not see important low and broad-based strength. I do not see a sudden reversal and sell off either. What are the options after a corrective move - another sell off and lower low, diagonal(bigger one) and another zig-zag for a triangle.
Looking at the bigger picture with three corrective moves and a pattern to fit most of the indexes(I mean the direction up/down at the same time) I will pick a triangle. And to be more complicated it could be bearish or bullish(see the weekly cycle charts). In both cases I expect this sideway move to continue until the summer probably mid June, then we will see how the pattern looks like and we will know what is happening.
At the moment I like the bearish triangle more because cycles will look better and RUT supports this pattern(see the last chart).

Short term - so far only a zig-zag higher two legs with the same size and if you dig deeper the 10min chart both legs up look like zig-zags itself too. If I am right we will see corrective move lower and another move higher.
Do you see how MACD and RSI broke their trend lines? This is a early warning that a move is over and not to expect 4 and 5 higher.

Intermediate term - currently preferred pattern is a triangle, see the weekly cycle charts for a better perspective. Some are bullish and count this as wave D... we will see this.

Long term - the histogram is resetting higher.... it will take weeks to move above zero. Until then I do not expect continuation lower... wait until the summer if you are bearish.

Market Breadth Indicators - not very strong, but positive and pointing up.
McClellan Oscillator - at zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - 13-15 is the new area for a low, get used to this.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower with lower high.

Day 14, the indexes are heading lower for a mid-cycle low of the 40 day cycle.

If you make a step back and look at the 4 year cycle(purple) with three 18 month cycles we have some room for interpretation. I was expecting sideway move and 18 month cycle low in June. Than we saw the sharp sell off and I thought the alternate count with 40 week cycle low looks better.... and since then we have sideway move, which makes both scenarios possible.
The problem with the bullish one - I fight all the time with the cycle guys that SP500 makes shorter cycles, but 4 years cycle with length less than 3 years(Feb.2016-Oct/Nov.2019) this is too short even for me.
Second the bearish one making important low in Oct/Nov and the bullish one a high around this time.... usually we see a low in this time of the year
The indicators MACD/RSI look pretty bad broke their trend lines and it is taking way too long to recover.
This hints and RUT make me lean towards the bearish scenario, I like it more.

Bearish case - we have 40 week cycle low in February the next one is very weak causing only a sideway move for a bearish triangle. The first 18 month cycle was longer than the usual length 65 weeks so the current on(at week 33) should be shorter another 25-30 weeks or a low in October/November. Wave D a low for the current 20 week cycle end of Mai, the triangle finished in June and decline begins until October/November for 18 month cycle low.

Bullish case - my initial count with 18 month cycle low in June is right and we have triangle for wave IV until the summer, then final rally and decline begins until the end of 2019.
RSI looks pretty bad it broke the trend line and stays there it takes too long to recover this is not wave 4 price behavior.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
The next sell setup which was interrupted at day 6. No signs of strength. The histogram made a tower and turned lower.

RUT not easy to count... the rallys in 2017 were strange with corrective waves, the move where wave a is, is strange it is not part of the previous move up, then I though diagonal just to see the indexes continue higher with zig-zag b, followed by huge sell off. You do not see a top with zig-zag, huge sell off with impulse ok this should be a reversal... just to see a zig-zag testing the high.... real mess.
This week I thought why not 3-3-5 expanded flat for wave 4 form Feb.2016. It fits perfect explains all the mess, you have nice wave 3 with five waves and the three waves testing the high are part of ED. This is the best count for me. It needs exactly the same waves like SP500(bearish triangle) for finished pattern. At the end this will be mix from the patterns I have suggested in the last two months - RUT stronger with ED and SP500 weaker with multi month corrective pattern.

Apr 18, 2018


The move up on Monday negated possible impulse as diagonal, that is why the post with a-b-c. The strength today says it's very unlikely to see new low.
So what are the options... so far there is just two legs higher with the same size which are difficult to count as an impulse.
The bullish option an impulse and wave 1 of V higher the indexes should continue higher. Given the price action so far and looking at indexes like XLF and EEM I do not see this as very likely scenario.
With another corrective wave higher I see this as a triangle. So going back to my initial pattern triangle and cycle count 18 month cycle low in June.

Looking at the indicators I do not see sudden reversal and plunge, topping is needed. So I still hold my longs if I am wrong the indexes will continue higher wave 3 thanks:), if we see topping and reversal I will take profits and close half of the longs. If I am right I will add again when the pullback is over and if I am wrong again the market plunges I will close the other half of the position.
This is a perfect example for what I wrote many times - think like a trader and have a trading plan, analysis just support your trading plan. Short said I do not care much if I am wrong or right:) just watching and waiting.

Apr 16, 2018


With the higher high today we have 5 waves for the second leg up and it looks like a-b-c with c as ED. The pattern looks now bearish.
The bullish view is much bigger LD or trying to count 1-2 i-ii.... at the moment this is a bet on lower probabilities.

Apr 14, 2018

Weekly preview

Short term view - the next bigger move is lower, but it could take another week if a diagonal is running.
Intermediate term view - if we do not see one final sell of than a bigger corrective pattern is running.

Choppy move to the upside as expected. Nothing new the same patterns like last week - to see this move as bullish should be a diagonal and I hope to see one final sell off.
Indicators/market breadth are improving and resetting higher, but the price action is weak - overlapping, sideway action below MA50 for too long, the candles with shadows like the move up is used to unload shares, shrinking volume, TomDemark setup could not be finished... see DJ the last chart. All I see is weakness... only XBI/Europe look like impulse higher.

This low does not feel like important low - 40 week and wave IV low. No new lows, no final flush lower, two days sharp sell off and 3 weeks sideway price action, crappy reversal...
To see an impulse higher it should be a diagonal and in this case because of the reasons above, most likely it will be part of an a-b-c move from much bigger corrective move. I do not believe in wave IV bottom in this case.
Alternate we have corrective wave higher and we will see one final sell off to finish big W-X-Y correction for wave IV. I hope this scenario will play out - the indexes will be in sync, final flush lower and fear, finished pattern, great long entry.... everything will look much better not like the crap right now.

Short term - the two options are shown on the chart. I can not see important low and impulse higher at the moment.... As long as the RSI trend line holds a diagonal is running.

Intermediate term - the histogram is positive already. The price is still trapped between MA50 and M200. The "bullish case"(red) diagonal the price rejected at MA50 and tests one more time MA200 before a rally. The real bullish case(green) sudden sell of to finish wave IV and reversal.

Long term - the histogram with a higher bar, flattening has begun as expected, one more test of the low and strong rally. The histogram can not tell us which of the both scenarios above is more likely. Both will cause the histogram to do what it should do. In the previous two occasions we had 4-5 weeks choppy price moves final sell off and reversal(green bar with long tail). I hope this will repeat - currently week 3, red week 4 and final sell off and reversal.
Anyway at least one more rally is expected.

Market Breadth Indicators - turned up and look positive.... but nothing impressive so far.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - still sell signal. I think we will see a buy signal for the phase with the strong rally even for a diagonal and higher low.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turning up after divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - making lower highs.
Advance-Decline Issues - strong but possible lower high and divergence(in line with both patterns).

A different view at cycles. This are not Hurst cycles, just my observations. Simple way to add time to your toolbox - no complex theory just counting from top-to-top and bottom-to-bottom on the daily and weekly chart. When the price is above MA10 the price is moving up and usually it will continue until it reaches the time window for a top, when it is below MA10 the price is moving lower and usually it will continue until it reaches the time window for a bottom. Two days closing above/below MA10 is a confirmation for reversal. It can be used as a trading system too - it is very simple and effective.

The daily chart - for the last two years the daily cycle has length 30+- few days. You can use trend lines, they are good sign for a reversal too or just watch MA10. Another useful info how - much time the price is spending moving up/down. For example in 2017 you can see the price moving 25-30 days higher and 5 days lower. This means strong right translated cycle and the next cycle will make higher high. The current one(green) spent 14 days or almost half of the cycle moving lower - nor very bullish
Currently at day 23(green) and nearing the time window for a top.

The weekly chart the length is 20 weeks+-few weeks. Exactly the same rules - MA10,trend lines, how much time the price is spending up/down.
Notice how until the top in January we had strong right translated cycles and the current one(green) - half of it is behind us and the price went nowhere. That is why we have bearish top-to-top cycle and as I wrote a month ago the top could be in....

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
The setup higher was interrupted at day 7, which is another sign for weakness... something what we knew after seeing only 3 waves higher.

Look at the candles and the price action - one strong bar and after that 7 sideway bars half of them red the other half with long shadows instead closing at the high all this on shrinking volume hitting MA50..... my feeling says this is corrective.

Apr 7, 2018

Weekly preview

Short term view - choppy move up.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term low, a few weeks before the market really start to rally.

Very volatile week - bang lower, strong rally all this expected and then another huge red bar. Second indecision weekly candle, no confirmation for a reversal with impulse in the opposite direction, three waves up and down.
The weekly histogram and the Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index hint that a strong rally will not start immediately. This is a good news, we will have enough opportunities to add to a long position.

Short term - two options burning time to absorb all sellers, with only three waves up and down the options are leading diagonal or ED, LD looks better. Alternate final flush lower for a capitulation and test of the low later(the W-X-Y chart which I have shown yesterday).

Short term - suggested by Mily. At the end it is what I want to see a few week time before a strong rally begins. The move lower is corrective so far too and the ED does not fit with all indexes so I think this is a better option - leading diagonal and test of the low. Alternate scenario sharp plunge and test of the low a few weeks later.

Intermediate term - we have sideway move for two weeks with very volatile swings up and down 70 points are the new normal. The bulls are still defending MA200. I see a lot of obsession with MA200 in Internet.... like if the price moves below it it's game over. There is no such thing. The indicators RSI/histogram - I expect to see divergences.
Another lower low and the preferred scenario is wave IV/V(green). The other option is the top is in and multi month correction is running(red).

Long term - one final rally higher. The indicators are showing serious technical damage so this should be intermediate term low lasting for months and the subsequent rally should be the last one from the Feb.2016 low.
The histogram with huge trough only in 2008 it was bigger. Notice the similarities - 3 acceleration bars lower then flattening for a few weeks and the rally begins. Now the flattening phase should begin and price with bottoming pattern a low and test of the low.
One option is quick flush lower which will be bought(weekly candle with a tail) and test of the low with higher low or LD/ED up and down for 2-3 weeks flattening and a rally higher.

Market Breadth Indicators - I think they are building divergences and pointing to intermediate term low. Percent of Stocks above MA50 several times with oversold readings and staying around this levels for two months - this happens usually in a down trend... big red flag.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero, another higher low for double divergence expected.
McClellan Summation Index - higher low so far, divergence expected .
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, this one was bothering me seriously now I know why.
Bullish Percentage - turned up, no buy signal so far.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - several oversold readings, more divergences expected.
Fear Indicator VIX - lower highs and divergences expected.
Advance-Decline Issues - one more flush lower to oversold level with divergence will look great.

Day 34+4... waiting to see one more low or not to pinpoint the 40 day cycle.

Week 20, this should be 40 week cycle low.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Some price flips trough the week and now setup at day 4. Still no price flip to the downside, but the indexes should rally Monday/Tuesday and close above 2645 for the setup to continue.
The histogram with small divergence before the rally, now it will be great if we see a bigger divergence to confirm a low.

Apr 6, 2018


SPX/DJI/RUT/XLF the move lower looks like impulse and more important we have overleaping with the first wave. It does not look good for the bulls.
Come on bears I want to see new lows next week... please:)

Here is the "bearish plan" for the inpatient - Fibonaci poetry:) something around 2500-2520.

Here is how an impulse should look like - one more high around 2690-2700 is needed. The tech sector looks weak... difficult to see an impulse at the moment and the FANG stocks will look much better with one more lower low for a finished pattern. Now we wait to see if the impulse will be finished or not. We had already 1-2-3 which failed lets see what happens with this one.

Apr 2, 2018


Indexes like NDX/SOX/XBI do not look like an impulse lower they look like double zig-zag which is completing now. If you apply this to SPX you have W-X-Y with Y=0,618xW. The alternate scenario is the impulse which I am following(green), but it needs one more lower low. To be honest the impulse does not look so good and I like double zig-zag more.
Personally I do not wait until the last wave lower for the perfect pattern, often this does not work and I am buying small amounts at the lows building a position.