Apr 18, 2018
Update
The move up on Monday negated possible impulse as diagonal, that is why the post with a-b-c. The strength today says it's very unlikely to see new low.
So what are the options... so far there is just two legs higher with the same size which are difficult to count as an impulse.
The bullish option an impulse and wave 1 of V higher the indexes should continue higher. Given the price action so far and looking at indexes like XLF and EEM I do not see this as very likely scenario.
With another corrective wave higher I see this as a triangle. So going back to my initial pattern triangle and cycle count 18 month cycle low in June.
Looking at the indicators I do not see sudden reversal and plunge, topping is needed. So I still hold my longs if I am wrong the indexes will continue higher wave 3 thanks:), if we see topping and reversal I will take profits and close half of the longs. If I am right I will add again when the pullback is over and if I am wrong again the market plunges I will close the other half of the position.
This is a perfect example for what I wrote many times - think like a trader and have a trading plan, analysis just support your trading plan. Short said I do not care much if I am wrong or right:) just watching and waiting.
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Hi Krasi... could you take a look at FTSE Italy and AEX... both look good for wave 3.tq
ReplyDeleteYes, I wrote this weekend that Europe is strong showing impulsive move.
ReplyDeleteOver each the last two trading days there has been volumes of 1.65 bln and 1.95 bln on the SPX. There have only really been one other day where volumes have been lower and that was 1.3 bln the day before Thanksgiving. The SPX has not traded under 2.6 bln shares a day except for days right before/after holidays. This is earnings season, why are volumes so low?
ReplyDeleteBut the average volume is about 2.2bln? And yesterday the volume is normal:
DeleteApr 17, 2018 2,692.74 2,713.34 2,692.05 2,706.39 2,706.39 3,234,360,000
So where to get the correct data?
Interesting, where did yoh pull your data? Mine wasjust from yahoo finance.
DeleteI was looking at ^GSPC
DeleteI actually went back further and the last time we had volumes under 2 bln, holidays aside, was in 2011. The SPX traded under 2 bln shares per day most days between 2/16/11 and 3/2/2011. The index dropped 8% between 2/18/11 and 3/16/11. Once again, just an observation.
ReplyDeleteAnother guy says it is not bearish http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article62084.html
ReplyDeleteI agree with his conclusion - "It(volume) is an irrelevant sign for the stock market."
We are trading price not volume and price pattern rules. It will take months before we see the next big down move.
I have heard the same about volume the whole way up since 2009.... this did not work either.
You are wasting your time with volume analysis.
I disagree. Volume is useful sometimes. When you get a daily reversal candle on huge volume either falling or rising it’s reliable the move next day will be reversed. Otherwise looking at daily volume for any other moves are for the birds.
DeleteTo confirm break outs and enough commitment from buyers/sellers is different story. Nothing to do with trying to find volume pattern which to predict price pattern is fantasy it does not work.
DeleteThe only time i look at volume is when i screwed up a trade and i grapple at straws looking for reasons to hold a losing position. That’s the truth in a nut shell. If the price is moving in your direction you would never look at volume.
DeleteIf you trade futures and futures move against you on weak volume by 100 points, you gotta settle out end of trading with that loss. Nobody says well the volume was weak so you don’t have to pay up. Nobody. Price is price. I get it when there can be a five to ten minute pop on some news on low volume which is rapidly reversed. But when you look at bigger trends, volume is just bull shit. Trust me. You just get confused and you end up doing stupid shit like holding a losing position. Done it a thousand times! Learn from me!!
DeleteSince I know you follow it...any thoughts on SOXX here? Seems close to a good entry pt, but very dangerous not too far below.
ReplyDeleteToo strong and impulsive for me, the oscillators just turned lower. Maybe it is crazy but it looks like expanding triangle and the lows around 163 to be visited for a third time.
DeleteThank you
DeleteMaybe not , if bonds jump over 3% in the next few days , your SPX diagonal might be back on the table with a short sharp down move .
ReplyDeleteTo look like diagonal the indexes should reverse now and make one more high.
DeleteHow about the bond price chart? Thanks. It seems bonds nowadays are not inverse related to stock market. Today stock goes down but bonds also goes down?
ReplyDeleteThe final wave lower is running and the yields higher.
Deletespx,ndx dji all coming into 25 and 50 day. im thinking this is wave 4 of the move that started beginning of april. Now we could get an extended 5th wave to get SP500 to 3000 by the fed meeting. That could be cycle top (at least for SPX and DJI). The short squeeze I posted about last week could be the catalyst. obviously this means we are in wave 5 of 5.....
ReplyDeleteVery unlikely.
DeleteSPX 3000 in 8 trading days??? come on now.
DeleteDo you think today's down move finished or not? I think it should continue down for the next few days? Thanks.
ReplyDeletewe will know from oscillators tomorrow if it is finished or not.
DeleteTopping has begun. It looks like impulse lower on the 10min chart. Even with a higher high the indexes should move lower for a week or two.
DeleteI appreciate the mid-week updated chart!
ReplyDeleteme too. Thank you Krasi
DeleteHi Krasi! just to clarify, if we do have a high or higher high then it's be a triangle with 50% retracement, but if it's instead a topping process we will revisit the low/make new lows. thx!
ReplyDeleteWith or without higher high I do not expect lower low, it takes too long and the probability is low. That is why the update. The only difference is with higher high the move will look like an impulse then the probability for lower low drops from low to zero.
DeleteThx Krasi!
ReplyDeleteSo it is all about how deep the retracement will be then... could i ask at which level you start buying? or is it too early to tell and it will depends on the way we go down? thx again and good luck!
When we see corrective retracement around 50%-61,8% Fobanci level than it is a buy.
DeleteWhat S&P levels would that be? Thanks!
Delete2620-2640
DeleteA close below 2660 today and monday could be a wash-out day. In extremis , the retracement could be 100%, so I'm just waiting to see what it looks like . I have a low due next week , so it's all lining up....
ReplyDeleteNow do you think it should rebound next Monday? And after that for another wave down? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteYes,something like that... probably slightly lower low to finish the pattern on Monday then bounce up.
Delete