Apr 14, 2017

Update

I am taking a break for two weeks. The next weekly update will be on 6th of Mai... probably I will post a short update on 2/3th of Mai.
I do not expect dramatic changes... the "surprise" could be if the correction is finished in the next two weeks which is the short end of this time frame which I am counting currently at 2-4 weeks, so not really a surprise.

It is like in November, it is a correction - constantly changing short term moves and a lot of combinations possible. I have shown below two options. There is at least other two scenarios - wave d of a triangle which suggest the same higher, but the final leg lower will not make lower low or another scenario just plunging lower. I think it is more likely to see mid-cycle low of the 40 day cycle instead of a plunge and I would like to see a fear for the last leg lower so I show the scenarios which I prefer.

Some would say not very helpful so many options... I would say if you focus on following the moves on short term basis you are missing the important messages. The important messages is - it is a correction and after a correction another rally follows. The exact shape of the correction is info just for the statistic.
The price action seems to confirm my analysis - the move lower will last at least 9-10 weeks(important cycle low expected 18 month) and at week 7 we have 3-4 possible patterns which means this is just a correction.

The wave lower is already running, some retracement to resistance/MA50/MA200 and final leg lower.

Flat correction for B and final leg lower C. If it is a triangle instead of B this is will be d and e to around 2330 instead of C/4

Apr 11, 2017

Update

At the moment I see this pattern... complex wave B. It is too early in the cycle to see a plunge.

Apr 7, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - higher next week.
Intermediate term view - the correction to continue for 3-5 weeks.

We saw the price higher until Wednesday as expected, now it is more complicated.... most of the indexes have different patterns which makes me crazy:) and difficult to forecast the short term:
- Nasdaq finished wave iii of 3 and we have impulse lower followed by a-b-c (Thursday-Friday)... difficult to see some rally higher.
- XLF looks like flat b of B so next week should be higher to finish the correction(last chart).
- SP500/NYSE look more like XLF, DJ more like Nasdaq...
- Europe is strange three waves down and up but different picture - DAX with lower high/CAC with higher high/EUROSTOXX50 is testing the high....

We have short trading week and Easter. How can the big boys make more money? I think we will see pump before the long weekend(to scare shorts) and dump after the holidays(the correction taking it's course). Such scenario fits much better with cycles than the start of a sell off next week. Overall typical behavior for a correction at this stage of the pattern - long sideway move and sudden sell off(expected) for two weeks to finish the correction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - SP500 looks better like wave b of B.... nothing lower after the plunge from Wednesday. Alternate scenario is the red one - lower on Monday, but retracing higher for the rest of the week.


Intermediate term - the index finds support at MA50, the oscillators are resetting... waiting for a few days higher.


Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - pointing higher, this is just shore term move the signal for a bottom should come later in a few weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - making lower high, we should see another big red trough.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - continue making higher lows, it looks like it wants to explode higher.

HURST CYCLES
Day 9 of the last 40 day cycle. Almost 1/4 is behind us it is obviously weaker than the previous daily cycles.

Week 11 of the last 20 week cycle. Expecting to see 18 month cycle low in the first half of May.


XLF looks like flat for b of B.... one more push higher to the trend line and MA200 will look great.

Apr 5, 2017

Update

It looks dangerous for the bulls..... Nasdaq 10 min chart this looks to me like the top of wave iii of 3.
One small push tomorrow is possible, but if you are long do not rely on this. SP500 looks the same way only this is the top of wave b or 2.


The daily chart - the leader looks tired with MACD double divergence.

Apr 1, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - wave b continuation next week.
Intermediate term view - the correction to continue for 4-6 weeks.

We saw one more low and short term bottom for the 40 day cycle - no surprises, but not clear pattern. I can not say - 100% we will see lower high.
DAX and Nasdaq look like final fifth wave higher with iv and v missing. XLF (last chart) is showing clear pattern now in b of B.
If SPX/DJ follow the same pattern like DAX / XLF / Nasdaq we should see (b) and (c) from b so I expect lower high for SPX.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we have one leg higher which looks like an impulse so more to the upside expected. If it is wave b it should not move above the resistance zone and reverse sharply...


Intermediate term - the index needs more time for the histogram to reset. If we see higher high I do not think this will be the beginning of a new leg higher just (v) of iii or 3.


Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, but short term not like expect move up for months.
McClellan Oscillator - buy signal.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - in oversold territory, it should spend there several weeks.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal, but still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - continue making higher lows, the surprise will be to the downside for stocks.

HURST CYCLES
40 day cycle low behind us and day 4 of the next and last 40 day cycle before 18 month cycle low.

Week 10 of the last 20 week cycle. Expecting to see an important top soon and 18 month cycle low first half of May.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
No price flip up, still sell signal and the histogram pointing lower.... no bullish signs despite the bullish candle.


I think XLF shows clear picture what is going on. Very clear waves and pattern, I will be very surprised if it does not find resistance at MA200 and reverses lower.

Mar 25, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - not very clear we have to wait a few days, but I think we will see one more lower low and short term bottom.
Intermediate term view - the correction to continue for 5-7 weeks.

We have a move lower... obviously a correction is running since 1.March. Do not get too exited, as expected the first part takes time and it is shallow, later in April should be more interesting.

So far we do not have impulse lower only a-b-c and at day 37 the 40 day cycle the indexes are nearing a bottom. The short term looks confusing, I have the feeling that every index has different pattern. Looking at the weekly chart it does not look like it will reverse and rally so I think we will see finished impulse, but waiting a few days for confirmation is not a bad idea.
If I am wrong we will not see one more lower low for a finished impulse and higher high is possible, but it will be short living. From trading perspective in both cases you have to wait roughly two weeks for a better entry unless you are a day trader.

I have changed the alternate scenario on the daily chart - I removed the alternate bearish scenario because it takes too long for the price to follow market breadth and added bullish one if the major indexes move in sync with Nasdaq(see below the chart).


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the major indexes do not look weak. Weakness are showing DJT,RUT,XLF(see the last two charts). So far we have just a-b-c, the bears need one more push lower to confirm that a bigger correction is running.


Intermediate term - The new alternate scenario is shown in sync with Nasdaq. DJ/SPX - you can count wave iv/3, but not for Nasdaq.
RSI moves too steep lower and we have MA50 support... add to this mature 40 day cycle so I expect short term bottom soon. The only question is if we will see one more lower low or not.


Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished. I think we should see a move lower for a few weeks


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - are in correction mode pointing lower, but not strong sell signal more like indecision.
McClellan Oscillator - around the zero line, waiting for decision up or down.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - still above 75.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range...
Fear Indicator VIX - BB is expanding, but the bears need break out of the range above 13.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 37 of the 40 day cycle. We are nearing the low for the current cycle.

Week 9 of the last 20 week cycle. Expecting 18 month cycle low late April/early May.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have finally price flip on the weekly chart and sell signal. This chart looks like reversal - the candle and the oscillator. It is less likely to reverse again and head for higher highs.


NASDAQ - in contrast to the DJ/SPX it made a new high with an impulse this week. The count shown below looks much better for this index.


RUT and XLF have better looking patterns, but still we need one more lower low as confirmation.


Mar 18, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - move lower, in wave "a" of the correction
Intermediate term view - correction for 6-8 weeks.

We saw a move higher as expected.... no strong case either for bullish or bearish outcome, but I see more and more hints that the top is behind us. Europe looks like finished ED with reversal candle and RSI/MACD divergence, DJT with clear impulse lower, XLF you could count diagonal lower, RUT you can count an impulse lower. SPX on the daily chart RSI broke below the trend line and it is not recovering quickly just tested twice the broken trend line. It takes too long for the index to rally 7 trading days already. McClellan Oscillator - compared historically after a move below -80 the correction was already running, but it is so shallow that you do not think about correction. "Recovery" follows for 1-2 weeks but it is weak and reversal follows - for more than 2 weeks we have exactly the same price behavior.
Higher high could not be ruled out, but I think the top is behind us.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the price bounced from the support level as expected now waiting for the market to show it's intension. It looks to me that the trend line was broken and tested. The bearish outcome looks more likely.


Intermediate term - RSI shows bearish behavior. It broke below the trend line and it is not recovering, it is just testing the trend line....


Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished. The indicators turned lower, waiting to see when the price will follow them.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - are pointing lower... we should see something lower for the indexes even if it is only a few percent.
McClellan Oscillator - recovered above the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, but still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower but still at higher levels.
Fear Indicator VIX - several higher lows, waiting to explode higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 32 of the 40 day cycle. We are in the last quarter of the cycle... it is difficult to see a rally, only if the count is wrong.

Week 8 of the last 20 week cycle. The middle of the cycle, waiting for a turn lower and 18 month cycle low in late April.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
No price flip for a sell signal so far. The histogram looks bearish - second top and below the MA.

Mar 15, 2017

Update

Ok the indexes are higher as expected and now it is decision time - either just a corrective move a-b-c or they rally higher.
I think it is a-b-c, but I do not bet at the moment just waiting.



The same for GDXJ.

Mar 11, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - final move higher... higher high or lower high I do not know.
Intermediate term view - I expect correction for 6-8 weeks and 18 month cycle low in the second half of April.

No new information, the price moved lower as expected, the pattern is is still not 100% clear to say we have reversal. Market breadth turned lower and it is in correction mode already. Higher high is still possible, but with this market breadth it should not last long before the price follows.
The McClellan Oscillator moved below 80, which usually means the correction has begun. On the other side it means expect a bounce from an oversold level. I expect a few days higher before FOMC, then we will see what happens on Wednesday.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we saw a move lower touching support and the trend line... now waiting for the next high either lower high or higher high with divergences.


Intermediate term - RSI broke below the trend line, even if we see a higher high I expect RSI divergence and reversal lower.


Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished. The histogram turned lower, anything to the upside should be short living.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - all indicators turned lower and look bearish.... the price should follow soon.
McClellan Oscillator - moved below -80 and retracing from oversold levels.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, but still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower but still at higher levels.
Fear Indicator VIX - making higher lows, but still not exploding higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading for the oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Day 27 of the 40 day cycle. The 18 month cycle is pulling the price lower already.

Week 7 of the last 20 week cycle. Waiting for a turn lower and 18 month cycle low in late April.


A lot of interest about GDXJ. In my last comment I wrote what I expect and here is visual how it looks like.
Whole week the market tortured the bulls and the bounce came in the last few hours. The market is cruel, the big boys squeeze you until you give up. I hope those who are holding longs has not freaked out and sold at the bottom.

Mar 4, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - waiting for confirmation if we have a reversal or not.
Intermediate term view - when the top is behind us, I expect correction for 6-8 weeks and 18 month cycle low in the second half of April.

We have now the expected wave v higher. There is still no confirmation for a reversal, only one red day. There is a chance for one more higher high as long as we do not see a break below 2350 with impulsive wave.
We are trying to find a top for a 3rd wave in a bull market so do not get excited too much. Look at the weekly chart MACD/RSI, we see strength this is definitely wave 3. If you are not comfortable with risk and you do not care about 5% move do not try to trade on the short side.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - for confirmation I want to see the price moving below minor support 2350/trend line/MA200 and accelerate lower (red).
If we do not see this most likely this is the top of wave iii and wave iv is running (green).


Intermediate term - looking at other indexes and indicators/market breadth erasing some divergences the green scenario looks more likely.
We have two support areas - one corresponds to 38,2% Fibo and pullback 5%(green scenario) the other 50% Fibo and correction 9%(red scenario).
Now just waiting for confirmation that the top is behind us.


Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished. The indicators are showing a lot of strength, this is definitely wave 3.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - mixed picture, some indicators(McClellan) turned lower, Bullish Percentage showing strength erasing long term divergence, Percent of Stocks above MA50 doing nothing at the overbought level with multiple divergences.
All this means to me more shallow wave lower (the green scenario) and the first wave A will be weaker the sell off should come with wave C.
McClellan Oscillator - moved below zero
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned lower.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around the overbought level, still no sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - BB starting to widen. I expect higher low and sharp reversal higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 22 of the 40 day cycle. The 18 month cycle should start pulling the price lower.

Week 6 of the last 20 week cycle.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have combo at 11 and countdown at 10. We need one more higher high to finish the sequence. No price flip so far.


GDXJ - currently watching this two scenarios. The bullish (green) 1-2 i-ii. Bearish (red) much bigger zig-zag. I think it will be the green one and I think PM/miners will start really rallying after the summer because the USD is not finished to the upside.


Feb 28, 2017

Update

UPDATE - Yesterday I pointed out that we have impulse higher and this is not wave iv anymore. It looks like this impulse was just wave (i) of v and today we are seeing wave (iii) of v



Careful if you have longs. We have 5 waves higher so this could be the top. Now we have enough waves to count finished pattern from the January low.
This is 10 min chart it looks like impulse higher probably this is not part of wave iv.