Feb 15, 2020

Weekly preview

Last week more price action was needed for the pattern to take shape and after this week it looks like ED. For confirmation we should see one more high followed by steep decline below 3300.
If we see move lower without one more higher high than it is the bigger ED which I showed last week in comments.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like diagonal structure, but no overlapping on the cash index. There is overlapping on the futures and other indexes - DJ,NYSE,RUT.
For something bullish we should see only zig-zag above support and MA200. Break below this level and with high probability we have a reversal.

NYSE it looks like ED with overlapping - it makes more sense to see completed ED squeezing marginal higher high so that the big pattern is synchronized across the indexes.


Intermediate term - the fifth wave shown last week is taking the shape of a wedge. This pattern once completed is fully retraced so next target should be support around 3215. If H&S is confirmed target is important support and MA200. The indicators does not suggest something bullish.


Long term - at the top of wave B, next we should see sell off into the end of Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018. Alternate shorter impulse C for running flat, less likely big ED.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - do not follow price higher, weak and divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero with double divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up but very weak below the MA, this is still sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned up with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 75 with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - double divergence, next we should see spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - double divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the trend line touched two more times, the signal is still buy. With this diagonal pattern and the divergences it could change very rapidly.


Hurst cycles - 10 days higher, we should see a high next week. With RSI double divergence it does not look so bullish.


Week 2 for the last 20 week cycle, making higher highs at week 19 does not make sense plus my indicators are pointing to a 20 week low.

Feb 8, 2020

Weekly preview

I was expecting bounce higher from MA50 daily and deep retracement 62% or more... but this impulse really surprised me. Technically nothing changed - RSI testing the broken trend line with divergence, market breadth with sell signals, cycles tricky if we have 20w cycle low or not. I still think this is an important top and it loks like exhaustion move with this gaps and bearish candle formation at the end of the week. Many indexes has not made higher high which is a red flag and happens around tops - NYSE,RUT,DJT,SOX,EEM,SVXY(volatility).


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like impulse.... at the moment there is no enough price action to confirm it or forecast what happens next, we have to wait.
For something bullish a pullback should stay above 3295-3300, below that it is bearish.


Intermediate term - another possible count impulse higher with really extended third wave to the max 4,236, 5=1 and 4=0,236x3 what you expect in extended wave. The third wave itself has extended first wave which I explained once iii=0,618xi and v=0,38xi. Now we wait for confirmation or not... or maybe this final wave 5 is ED and this is wi, it will fit with cycles 2-3 weeks higher, at least the Fibo levels look perfect:)
The indicators - MACD/RSI broke the trend line from the October low and found support at the trend line from Dec.2018. Now RSI is testing the broken trend line and we have divergences. The indicators look bearish. The move looks like exhaustion with this gaps and bearish candle formation... on DJ it looks really bad like strong reversal.
For those who think the market is bullish any move lower should stay above the red line 38% retracement and support. Below that with high probability the third wave is dead.


Long term - at the top of wave B, next we should see sell off into the end of Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018. Alternate shorter impulse C for running flat.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some turned up... but I do not see bullish signs most with sell signals and divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - returned above zero after slightly oversold levels and divergence, now turned lower again.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence, this time did not follow the indexes higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the trend line as expected, next we should see spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - around zero and testing the broken trend line, next it should plunge lower to oversold levels.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - we have the next daily cycle the price above MA10... but we have already two right translated cycles in a row so the probability for a third one is low plus as discussed RSI does not look bullish rather bearish. For something bullish we have to see shallow pullback to test MA10 and the trend line. I think the probability to see left translated cycle is very high.
So the signal is buy - if we see shallow pullback testing MA10 and turn high you have long entry point, if we see the price below 3300 we have failed left translated cycle which is bearish.


Hurst cycles SP500 20d sine wave highs - currently it looks like it is turning lower early at day 11 which is bearish. We have already 8x20 cycles so the next 20w cycle should be running.


Now there is two options - 20w low behind us and the next 20w cycle is running or 40w cycle high this week and 20w low in the next 2-3. weeks. We need more information(price action) to confirm which one it is. In the first case we have important high and we should see bigger move lower. In the second case we should see corrective move lower for 2-3 weeks and the price should stay above the 3150-3200 range.
The signs are pointing that we have new 20w cycle running:
- first the index broke below the trend line, RSI broke below MA9 which usually signals new cycle.
- second the daily chart above we had already 8x20 cycles for 20 week cycle high.
- third when you expect a high and you have strong right translated cycle usually the next one is making higher high and reverses for M pattern aka double top.... what we

Feb 1, 2020

Weekly preview

Second bearish weekly candle with market breadth in sell mode... now it is confirmed - the 20 week cycle turned lower and the indices will move lower for a few weeks.
What is much worse on the last day of the month big sell off and we have bearish monthly candle instead of nothingburger - indecision candle. I was watching and expecting such candle, but with only one day left I gave up and the market makes what you expect in the most unexpected way:)


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Another short term pattern from Kris which looks better.

Short term - all possible patterns I see are - impulse with extended fifth wave 5=1to3, zig-zag with a=c for "a" of a bigger zig-zag or diagonal(yellow) if we see a bigger pop up next week. It sounds complicated, but it is not because all three have the same path - final up and down for the pattern to be completed then retracement higher.
Looking the MACD/RSI divergences it is hard to imagine that the move is just starting to accelerate.

Not so complicated AAPL it looks like impulse 1-2-3 and probably H&S top formation.


Intermediate term - TA looks interesting... the market does not start big sell off when it is above MA50 first you see a bounce with lower high or higher high with divergences then a bigger sell off follows and currently MA50 is being tested so we should see a retracement higher.
The indicators MACD/RSI breaking the trend lines from the October low. If we have just small a-b-c for iv/3 the next lower trend line will be tested and the price will turn higher again.
Look at RSI - often when you have fourth wave RSI breaks the trend line which is early warning and moves deeply lower, but stays above 50 - see the circles it happens all the time. If this is small degree wave iv/3 not even 4 why is RSI below 50? Why in the middle of the third wave we have bearish monthly candle? Just asking the bulls, I now the answer there is no third wave in the first place.
I expect bigger decline and it should test the area around support(the previous four peaks), MA200 and 38% retracement.


Long term - wave B should be finished, expect the sell off to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018. Alternate scenarios - three waves lower for C triangle or impulse C for running flat.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - second slightly oversold level with divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - it looks like we have an impulse higher and I think it should test the broken trend line connecting the highs, then we should see big spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower and broke below the trend line connecting all the lows from Dec.2018.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the signal is sell. I have paid too much attention to the divergence on the 1h/4h chart and ignored the entry point - the price was rejected four times at MA10.... my mistake. It is not fatal I think we will have another chance. RSI is moving too far too quickly from the trend line and MA18 so it should snap back and this will be another entry point.


Hurst cycles - SP500 20d sine wave. The question is when to expect 20w low? The Hurst guys are counting short half cycle(only 3x20d cycles) and from there another 10 weeks or 4x20d cycles with a low mid-February(red arrow). Full 20w cycle with 8x20d cycles is the first week of March(black arrow). We can only wait and watch how the pattern develops. If I am right that we have B wave the decline should be bigger and take longer or late February/first week of March.


Week 17 for the 20 week cycle, which with high probability turned lower. Based on the high-to-high count which is minimum 40w cycle high I expect to see a bigger decline than most expect.

Jan 25, 2020

Weekly preview

Instead of recovery in the afternoon session on Friday the price stayed at the lows. The week finished with bearish daily and weekly candles and sell signal was triggered. Confirmation is needed with one more lower low for impulse followed by corrective retracement.
Did you noticed how the market behavior has changed? While the trolls were cheering the new ATH every rip was sold the whole week - the smart money is exiting the market.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - obviously the small down up shown last week played and the price broke two trend lines, the third one connects the October and December lows and should be first support. For a reversal to be confirmed we need one more lower low to complete impulse followed by corrective retracement. Short entry is when you see such confirmation with a stop above the last high.
Another option is to count truncated fifth wave and we have impulse lower... I am not a big fan of this truncation.
If there is no reversal the index should open higher next week and rally to new highs(green). Given how the charts look this scenario has lower probability... but with FOMC and the big tech companies reporting next week I am sure the big boys will organize one last rally to lure the sheeple, which are now well trained like Pavlov's dog.


Intermediate term - last week I have added w-x-y labels... it is not possible to say from the October low if we have a-b-c with c=a or impulse with extended fifth wave. The bulls are seeing impulse, the bears a-b-c. For me it does not matter - cycles are saying this is important high namely 4 year cycle high end of story.
Bearish daily and weekly candles and RSI below the trend line after divergence.... with this signals it is difficult to see another higher high. Single shares with reversal candles across the board too...


Long term - at the top of wave B, expect sell off to begin and to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018. Alternate scenarios - three waves lower for C triangle or impulse C for running flat.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero after divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - just turned lower with sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - just turned lower with sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - just turned lower with sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sell signal, it looks like double top.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows and divergences, the trend line connecting the highs was hit. Final pullback and a spike higher should follow.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower again after another lower high and divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - close below MA10 and the trend line, RSI broke below MA18 and the trend line. Sell signal has been triggered. Entry point is discussed on the first chart.

Hurst cycles - DJ 40 day cycle highs sine wave, 4x40d cycles make one 20w cycle.... it looks like the market is turning lower right on time.


Week 16 for the 20 week cycle, week 38 for the 40 week high-to-high cycle - 4 year cycle high is imminent.

Jan 18, 2020

Weekly preview

As expected at least a week was needed for w5 to be completed. Now time and pattern look mature and waiting for reversal signs. Interesting if we will see another few days before reversal for perfect cycle high the middle of next week.

The top of this w5 should be the top of wave c/B and the charts below show why I still stick to this count....


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it will be great to see one more down up with RSI divergence, but it is not a guarantee. Looking at AAPL we have the minimum for v/5 - ED making higher high so I will not be surprised to see the indexes lower on Monday. If we see the channel broken(red) with high probability the move from 6th of January is over.


Intermediate term - as explained impulse with extended first wave 3=0,618x1 5=0,382x1, on intermediate term scale c=0,618xa and long term B=1,618xA.... three different degree of Fibo measurements converge to the same target - I would not ignore this message.
The first wave lasted 40 trading days, the third wave 20 trading days and the fifth wave is now 10 trading days long so time and price measurements are satisfied.


Long term - at the top of wave B, after that expect sell off to begin and to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018.
Many said where is my alternate scenario so here it is - according Neely wave B with such size are not fully retraced so three waves decline for C triangle or impulse C for running flat... the decline will be only 25% not 30%:))))


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - mixed signals some are strong some with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - turned lower with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with long term divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, in the overbought area for a while.
Bullish Percentage - strong, buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal, it looks like double top.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low and divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - another lower high and divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the price is above MA10 the signal is still on buy, RSI with divergence oscillating around MA18 - the trading cycle should turn lower soon, triggering a sell signal will take a while most likely breaking below MA10 and testing it.


Week 15 for the 20 week cycle, week 37 for the 40 week high-to-high cycle - 4 year cycle high is imminent.


The charts below are showing what I am explaining for two years and I do not see a reason to change my mind because the pattern has not changed - a bunch of corrective waves, there is no third waves.
If you think this is wrong just buy because according to the bulls we are in the middle of the third wave. The self proclaimed EW god Avi Gilburt sees 100 point lower and another 600+ points higher.
My opinion is SP500/NDX will follow the rest of the world and not the opposite the rest of the world following AAPL(a few tech stocks distorting this two indexes).... by the way look at AAPL just test of the break out now support zone around 220 is already 30% correction. What do you think will happen with the indexes if AAPL is down 30%? So good luck.

EUROPE


JAPAN


EMERGING MARKETS


NYSE


DJT


RUSSELL2000


XLF


CYCLES

Jan 11, 2020

Weekly preview

Waves 4 and 5 playing out as expected, interesting is the futures has much bigger wave 4 and the pattern looks now like impulse with a wedge shape, but not ED. The charts are adjusted accordingly to be in sync with futures.
The cycles suggest short term we should see another 1-1,5 weeks higher and long term this should be important top - 4y cycle high. The minimum is a few weeks decline for 20 week cycle low late February/first week of March.
Crude oil with reversal at week 38(high-to-high) the previous time in April 2019 it made a high a week before the indices... which are now at week 36.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - w4 was finished on Monday, but of higher degree and now in w5. RSI shows very weak move and divergence which fits with wave 5 price action. At least one more high is needed for impulse(white), but I think it will stretch in time probably as ED(yellow).
Of course impulsive break below support will mean the move from October is finished.


Intermediate term - I have changed the count with triangle for b/B because the futures are showing much bigger decline for this w4 and with this count they are in sync. A triangle pattern will explain 40w low in October despite the higher low.
From October we have an impulse with wedge shape, but no overlapping. The first wave was roughly 40 trading days, the third wave 20 trading days and if the fifth wave is 10 trading days it will fit perfect with another 1-1,5 weeks higher for 20 week cycle high(see below).
Usually the wedges/ED retrace to the point where they have started, and this is exactly what should happen if my EW and cycle count is right.
Now we have RSI divergence which is much better for an expected intermediate term high.


Long term - close to the top of wave B, after that expect sell off to begin and to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same... only the bullish percentage is ok the others do not follow the price higher.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around zero, with multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, in the overbought area and waiting for turn lower.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower and short term divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows and double divergence...
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower with divergences, needs to break below the trend line to confirm reversal.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the price is above MA10 the signal is still on buy, RSI with double divergence oscillating around MA18 - the cycle is getting weak and should turn lower soon.
Hurst cycles - SP500 highs the last 20w(blue arrows) cycle with 20d sine wave. It looks like another 20d cycle high, for perfect 20w cycle one more 20d cycle is needed...

SP500 lows the last 20w(black arrows) cycle with 20d sine wave. It looks like we had another 20d cycle low early this week. Counting eight such cycles point to the first week of March.

DJ lows 40d cycle. I find it interesting that if you synchronize the sine wave with the lows and slightly longer cycle 32 trading days instead of 28(for SP500 above with a low in October are slightly shorter), four cycle for 20w cycle point to the same time frame - the first week of March.


Week 14 for the 20 week cycle, week 36 for the 40 week high-to-high cycle.

Jan 4, 2020

Weekly preview

I was expecting wave iv and v of 5/c/B and it looks like this is playing out. Topping has begun - if the top is in we should see small waves iii-iv-v lower next week, but my feeling tells me another week before the pattern is finished.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - to confirm a top we need to see the decline continue next week breaking the trend line and support. The problem is we do not have a bearish candle on the daily chart and usually reversal does not start this way.... may be we are still in w4 or w5 is an ED, we will know next week.


Intermediate term - the indices are close at least to intermediate term high and if I am right we will see much deeper decline than most expect.


Long term - close to the top of wave B, after that expect sell off to begin and to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - Fear&Greed hit 97 on very weak market breadth on Thursday - a lot of complacency. Now starting to see the short term divergences, intermediate term high is around the corner.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs, very weak on Thursday only 4 points higher.
SP500 McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with double divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, reached the overbought level.
Bullish Percentage - flat, still buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower despite the strength from Thursday.
Fear Indicator VIX - more higher lows, preparing to spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower with multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the days of this cycle are numbered, RSI with a sell signal already, but price is still above MA10 so sell signal is not triggered. Next week we should see either a bounce from MA10 and completion of the pattern or break below MA10 and sell signal activated. For now is wait patiently.


Hurst cycles - I am still experimenting with cycles... cycles vary 20 week cycle could be 18w or 20w or 22w - my theory as the cycle develops you can see if the smaller cycles are shorter or longer then adjust them for the current 20 week cycle. This is sine wave 20day cycle highs(or 14 trading days). I think this 20w cycle, which begun in September, should be shorter and the 14d cycles are 12-13 days long. I want to see at least 7 such cycles finished(next week) before the 20 week cycle makes a high and turns lower.


Week 13 reached 2/3 of the cycle, we should see a turn lower soon. The coming high is minimum 40week cycle high and after that we will see a decline until we hit 40 week cycle low and this is 6 months later mid 2020.