Trading cycle - price and RSI playing around the MAs. Technically it is a sell signal, but again at the moment there is no signs for confirmed reversal. The high-to-high count is in the time window for a top and I wait to see what happens next week.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - with so many zig-zags the best fitting pattern is diametric for wave c(yellow). If you want to stick to classical EW.... with so many zig-zags you have to count triangle b followed by expanding ED(red). I think this is a wrong count, but who cares when the outcome will be exactly the same:) Now there is no signs for a reversal, the move lower is so far zig-zag, but if we see bounce higher and break below support than some wave lower is running.
Intermediate term - the indicators with divergences warning for a high. Neowave pattern symmetrical completing at 18m high looks good. I have changed the alternate scenario, the classical EW pattern. It still breaks the rules, the W wave is a mess of zig-zags and not impulses. The theory aside the following idea - we have one completed pattern at 40w high roughly for 5months labeled W, followed by X and now second pattern is running and completes at 18m high or roughly the same length 5months. What we are seeing is a zig-zag for the first wave of it. What could follow is bigger zig-zag,flat or a triangle. We have 20w high what should follow is 20w low so according to the cycles we should see one of the sideways patterns - flat or triangle. On the chart is shown flat, maybe at the 10w low there will be more clarity, for sure we will know around the 20w low.
Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, short term divergences, some turning lower.
McClellan Oscillator - moving lower close to the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - short term divergence and turning lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergence and turning lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - around the previous lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower highs and trying to turn lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw big reaction lower this week. As I wrote it is possible that the 5w low is this week. We have two bigger reactions lower - accordingly the price pierced MA10 and the indicator is showing them as something significant. For now I will trust the indicator and count this week as 5w low and next week we will see if we have confirmation with a move higher.
For that to work I will make some assumptions like the spike means nothing and count extended 20d cycles so that the flow high->low->high works. I do not like this much, but lets see what happen next week.
Week 6 for the 20w cycle. High-to-high count week 15 so this is definitely 20w high from the September top.
thanks Krasi..
ReplyDeletethank you, Krasi, appreciate your work and considerations. my work correlates with yours on the short term. provided SP500 can hold 3636, we shall go higher into 21st of December. thereafter I think it is time for correction to start
ReplyDeletesupport at 18ma on SPY and QQQ ala the great Ira Epstien. I think one more high to give the bears a heart attack before christmas dinner.
ReplyDeleteI think we still have some more to go down, maybe one or two more weeks. This is too quick for a bottom.
ReplyDeleteSee the post below - probably something in the middle, the bigger correction has started, but the top will be tested.
DeleteThis short term cycles are too extended... as I wrote, I do not like this. After 20w high a decline for 20w low should follow, but you have to fit somehow 10w low and 10w high.... it is too much the pattern and cycles do not work I can not find a way to fit them.
ReplyDeleteWhat works is, if we are seeing 10w low not 5w like this - https://invst.ly/t46wt
The flow high->low->high for all cycles 20d/5w/10w works perfect and you have a wave comparable to the previous one in length(time).
This does not change the short/intermediate term picture, but it changes the timing for what follows in the future.
The black line is 10 exp ma?
DeleteSMA 10.
DeleteAh ok I'm using the 8exp now. Very useful
DeleteFeels like reversal day
ReplyDeleteDouble top will look better and reversal before FOMC will be strange, but who knows.
DeletePowell's texting buddies are getting out
DeleteWe won't top until after new year. DOn't expect much until then, better to go into hibernation.
ReplyDeletefamous last words. Even CNBC seems to not think much of the reversal
DeleteTime analysis does not agree. More likely we saw the top already.
DeleteKrasi, so is the neowave pattern still your primary? I saw your post on studyofcycles which would push out the top to late March. It seems like Neely is expecting the pattern to end anytime now.
ReplyDeleteWhat I see is shown on the daily chart - at the end it is the same with different labels so there is no really primary and secondary pattern. If you notice I do not count impulses to justify W pattern because there is no such, there is zig-zags. If you stick strictly to the rules you have to switch to neowave patterns. W-X-Y labels are for those familiar with classical EW.
DeleteOn his blog I am talking about Y, because it is easier. I do not want to start long theoretical discussions like - impulses or not, classical EW does not work, neowave works better in this case etc.
Personal opinion - either EW should be updated allowing in complex combinations the subwaves of the zig-zags W/Y/Z to be zig-zags itself not only impulses or to accept that there is new patterns like diametric and symmetrical.
About time I have changed it long time ago and it is shown on the daily chart.
Intermediate term high is coming and roughly two months lower, but according the cycles there is no way this is the pattern high. We are talking about huge deviations like months. I can swallow somehow one missing 10w cycle at the 4y cycle because of very high speed, but this is way too much.
Krasi, can you give us the Nasdaq option graph?
ReplyDeleteNot sure what option graph is
DeleteNYSE just one small push down and up needed for perfection - https://imgur.com/odpxxFU
ReplyDeleteEverything Perfect - waves,Fibonacci,RSI divergence,time
in January, hmmm so santa comes and then comes back to take all the presents.
DeleteNo this is hourly chart the move from the November low so days not weeks.
DeleteAh ok Santa comes with coal this year
DeleteNew ATH in the Nasdaq, it doesn't matter?
ReplyDeleteHomework for you spot the important on this chart the ATH or something else - https://invst.ly/t5trg
DeleteHi Krasi, what’s your thought on Gold and Silver? One more high or it will hit high at the same time as indexes? Thanks
ReplyDeleteI think one more high will look better - to complete the cycle and divergences on the weekly chart.
DeleteAll this is around the same time when the indices should make a top.... all assets are moving in sync anyway.
Does anybody here have cycle and EW anysis on Bitcoin? Thx.
ReplyDeleteI do not have EW count, but I think it moves in sync with all other assets. Bitcoin like gold is not special and it will not decouple - when the indices decline it will be hit hard too.
DeleteCycles - too young for long term cycles, the shorter one 18m and 4y are pretty obvious you do not need to be expert just look at the chart.
4y highs - 2014-2018 and 2018-2022(like the indices)
18m highs- start of 2018-mid 2019 -> end of 2020(now) -> around mid 2022
4y low - 2015-2019 and one 18m low 2019-March2020
18m high now -> 18m low next year like the indices -> 18m/4y high 2022 like the indices
Krasi, is this finally divergence on UVXY? Looks like a double bottom.
ReplyDeleteI can not say, it is possible volatility often makes low/high before the indices.
DeleteWorst case lower high with divergence and turn with the indices.
Short yet Krasi?
ReplyDeleteNo still waiting to reach the time/price target or more than 50% retracement of the current move up.
DeleteIt starts smelling like a top, there is a zig-zag for g/C - https://invst.ly/t6hw7
ReplyDeleteConfirmation is move below the support area and 50%-62% retracement.
The alternative is a/g/C when you move f to the next low.... this does not look so good.
one more high looks like - pass the dutchie
ReplyDeleteSupport holds so there is no early top and waiting for it according to the schedule next week.
Delete