Oct 12, 2019

Weekly preview

I see another zig-zag - two legs higher with the same size, so the corrective price action continues.
Nothing new, the same analysis like last week - final sell off expected into the end of the Month for 40 week cycle low and higher for 2-3 months. Looking at different indexes or crude oil for example, I think b/B is running.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another corrective move, even if it somehow extends higher I do not think this is an impulse.


Intermediate term - from the low in August the move looks like some kind of corrective b wave. I expect one more sell off to complete the correction which begun late July - most likely 40 week cycle low and at least the lower trend line should be tested.
For something bearish price should break below it.


Long term - at the moment I expect a correction to be finished late October/ early November. Then a rally for 2-3 months followed by final sell off to finish the correction which begun in 2018.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the oscillators are resetting from slightly oversold levels and trend following indicators are in the middle of a decline. We should see at least one more sell off to suggest intermediate term low.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting from slightly oversold leveland now positive.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned up, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower, but I expect one more spike.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 40 for the daily cycle.


Week 19 for the 20 week cycle.

Oct 5, 2019

Weekly preview

A lot of volatility and another corrective a-b-c. It is complete mess corrective waves in both directions and too many possible patterns. With cycles it is not 100% clear either. The two main options are this consolidation and when it is over continuation higher or topping pattern is running. At the moment it is difficult to say with very high probability which one it is. What I think I know:)
- Consolidation - I want to see finished pattern lower with final impulse wave c, 40w cycle low around the end of October, market breadth signaling intermediate term low. There is no such signals and small a-b-c lower does not look enough for me.
- Topping - I want to see finished pattern and reversal with impulse. The zig-zag from September is not enough so at least one more high is missing.

No matter bullish(consolidation) or bearish(topping) both cases do not look complete. At the moment I am just watching no need to guess. I will assume it is consolidation, than we should see another 2-3 weeks lower and a low below the August lows for a finished corrective pattern.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - corrective zig-zag higher in September, this decline is another a-b-c my suspicion was confirmed. I will make a guess - this rocket launch is another corrective zig-zag:))).
If we see test of the high with another zig-zag(c=a red) it will be dangerous for the bulls see the third chart. In this case the bulls must hope this is triangle and not ED.


Intermediate term - lower as expected, but I can not see finished pattern and reversal. to the upside the price is testing resistance/MA50 and the gap was closed. In the case of consolidation another decline should follow to test the lower trend line. 40 week cycle low should be followed by 2-3 months higher and test of the upper trend line.... in this case the 1,38 Fibo level will be hit, which is usual extension for B waves in expanded flat.

For something bearish the lower trend line(shown above) should be broken and at least the March/June lows tested. Here is one bearish pattern... who knows with so many zig-zags. In this case B=1,23xA the other usual extension for expanded flat.


Long term - at the moment I will assume that a correction will be finished in October. Then a rally for 2-3 months followed by final sell off to finish the correction which begun in 2018.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned up signaling short term bottom, but no signs for important low.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly oversold and turned higher, close to zero now.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, turned lower from overbought levels.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracement and one more spike expected.
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold levels has not been reached, now around the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
This low is another option for 40 week cycle low - 10 weeks from June to 5th of August and 8 weeks from this August low until this week for 40 week cycle with length 41 weeks. The pattern and market breadth does not really signal an intermediate low, but who knows.

Day 35 another 2-3 weeks needed for finished daily cycle.


Week 18 for the 20 week cycle.

Sep 28, 2019

Weekly preview

The choppy price action continues, I can not see clear reversal pattern it looks corrective. For some indexes like NDX and RUT you can say ok it is impulse lower, but for NYSE/SP500/DJI it is a long shot, you can only assume we have reversal and wait for confirmation - lower high.

The EW pattern lower is not convincing, cycles expect a bounce from mid-daily cycle low, oscillators like the histogram or McClellan Oscillator resetting for two weeks so I expect one more high, but I will watch closely if we have just deep retracement and turn lower.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the corrective move lasts longer than expected and now the a-b-c from mid-August looks like 1-2-3 with missing fifth wave. I can not see convincing impulse lower, but lets say I am wrong than we have a-b-c higher and 1-2(red) now running.
RSI with downtrend, but overlapping and ready to break above the trend line - no signs for an impulse lower.


Intermediate term - with one more high for wave B you have to count double zig-zag w-x-y(red).
MACD with double divergence. RSI with double divergence and broke below the trend line, probably it will be tested with divergence. The histogram should make a lower high and divergence. The indicators are bearish and signal topping process is running. The price is at support and MA50 so we should see something higher.


Long term - one final leg lower into 2020 to complete the correction. The big question is if the decline will be a zig-zag or an impulse.
All the indicators look bearish like on the daily chart - topping and intermediate term high.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - with multiple divergences signaling important high around the corner. Now preparing for short term divergences and the end of this rally which begun in August.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting and below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower and sell signal, but I think we will see a divergence first.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal reached the overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - double divergence and turned lower, I expect short term divergence as a sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - double divergence and turned lower, I expect short term divergence as a sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - I expect higher low, when the market makes higher high.
Advance-Decline Issues - plunged lower to the zero area, I expect lower high and divergence.


HURST CYCLES
This move up is taking too long and if we see another 2-3 weeks higher the more likely count is 40 week cycle low in late August. This will mean 20 week cycle lasting 12 weeks and 40 week cycle lasting 35 weeks. I have seen such occasions when one 20 week cycle is too long and the other one is shorter so 35 weeks for the 40w cycle is perfectly fine the average anyway. We can only wait and see how long it will take the current move to make a high and how big the subsequent decline will be. For now I will stick to the current count.

Day 30 for the daily cycle. The most likely count is that we saw half daily cycle low(or 40 day cycle low) this week.


Week 17 for the 20 week cycle... it is taking too long.

Sep 21, 2019

Weekly preview

Small up and down moves this week, so nothing has changed. The indexes are close to important high and after this high it should be down for months until we see 4 year cycle high.

The big picture - EW possible patterns are if we do not see higher high A-B-C correction which begun in Jan.2018 or with higher high the move from Dec.2018 will look like a big ED and possible wave 5/III from 2009. The outcome will be the same(wave IV and 4 year cycle low 2020) so I do not really care which one it is, I am a trader theory is not important for me. I think one final higher high fits better, but we will see next week.
Cycles says the indexes should turn lower and with very high probability head lower for 4 year cycle low in 2020. Indicators with double divergences on the daily and weekly chart. Market breadth with double divergences too..... all signs point to important high and I can not see anything bullish.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same like last week. Lower high and we have w-x-y for b wave. Higher high and we have a-b-c probably the final zig-zag for a big ED from Dec.2018


Intermediate term - expect a high in September and lower in October. I think the indexes will squeeze higher high with possible ED for 5/III.
Multiple divergences on MACD and RSI.


Long term - one more decline into 2020 to finish the correction. B wave if we see lower high or 5/III if we see higher high with ED from Dec.2018.
Multiple divergences histogram and RSI.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - resetting higher and now with multiple divergences signaling important high around the corner.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting lower, probably one more push higher for divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal, double divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - I expect one more leg down and reversal with multiple divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower from overbought level, probably one more push higher with divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Day 25, it looks like half daily cycle with price testing MA10 and RSI testing the trend line and the MA.


Week 16 for the 20 week cycle, reversal lower should be imminent.

Sep 15, 2019

Weekly preview

The bulls do not give up, which does not change anything - another corrective rally and prolonged topping process.

The indexes are nearing the next high, but I think it will take another week or two before we see a significant decline. RUT is catching up and it looks like impulse higher is running. Watch when it is finished, most likely the indexes will turn lower at the same time.
The big picture - if we see higher high there is possible ED for c/B running.

As explained in previous posts for those who want to go short the time is in September. Personally I will enter short when I see the current short term pattern completed, then I will watch what happens - corrective move lower for possible 4/c/B or impulse and decline into intermediate term low late October/early November.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another corrective move higher. The two possible patterns I see are w-x-y zig-zag(red) or you can count a-b-c lower for possible 2 of ED(NYSE/DJ made lower low) with a-b-c higher(white)... not the best impulse, but possible for wave c.


Intermediate term - I expect a high in September and lower in October. I think topping will begin next week and probably the indexes will squeeze higher high with possible ED for c/B.


Long term - one more decline into 2020 to finish the correction. The indexes are spending a lot of time topping so if wee see new highs and ED than a decline in five waves for C is more likely.... I hope so, I do not want to trade zig-zags.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are resetting before the decline for the 40 week cycle in October.
McClellan Oscillator - still strong, no divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - resetting lower, expect divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - reached overbought levels.


HURST CYCLES
Day 20 for the daily cycle, still pointing up. Some are counting the low on 26th of August, but DAX,DJI,NYSE made a low on 15-th of August... I think this should be the low. It does not matter, I am watching my triggers MA10 and RSI for a signal when the current daily cycle will turn lower.


Week 15 for the 20 week cycle, the last 1/4 of the cycle is running and we a nearing it's high.

Aug 23, 2019

Update

I am away for 3 weeks again... the next weekly post should be on 15-th of September.


Short term - we saw sharp sell off yesterday, but it takes too long and the retracement is too deep so the probability for wave 2 is very low. Confirmation for a move in the opposite direction is break below 2900 until then the pattern can easily extend higher.
This is hourly chart futures I see impulse and I suspect that w3 of ED is running for the fifth wave.


The big picture has not changed - I see leg lower and corrective move higher.
Intermediate term it looks like the flat is near to competition and another leg lower(red) should start.
What if I am wrong? Than we saw daily cycle low on 15-th of August and much more ugly patterns are running a-b-c(green) and now a of another zig-zag higher(green path).

There is a lot of resistance in the 2940-2960 area so at least we should see a pullback
If you see break below 2900 with impulse it is red, if you see choppy move zig-zag just to close one of the gaps it is the green one.

Aug 17, 2019

Weekly preview

Move lower and probable daily cycle low, but the market threw a curve ball:) we have enough to the downside for daily cycle low, but the expected b wave is bigger and it looks like a flat at the moment.

There is an obvious pattern which fits the most indexes, but the market is very creative lately so I am open for surprises how exactly it will play out. It is a day traders environment and if you are not such, just relax, focus on the big picture and wait for the pattern to play out.
The big picture - I do not know the exact pattern from the last two weeks, but I know it is corrective and when it is finished we will see another leg lower. Short term market breadth and the indicators are turning positive plus daily cycle low is expected, which means it is very unlikely that this leg lower has begun.... on top of this you have two bullish weekly candles with long shadows from MA50, the hourly chart do not override the weekly.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the obvious pattern is zig-zag up and zig-zag down with the same size which is flat correction and the next move should be final rally to resistance for b. As I said I am open for surprises like one more lower low for slightly different flat (red a-b-c).


Intermediate term - the price is bouncing between MA50 and MA200. If I am right about the flat, resistance and MA50 will be tested one more time and then the direction should be down until we see 40 week cycle low in October.
The indicators are turning positive so the most bearish outcome which I see is one more lower low(see above), but I do not expect the (c) wave.


Long term - I expect decline in three waves with the first important low in October - a/C/IV and 40 week cycle low.
Two bullish weekly candles in a row bouncing from MA50... this does not fit with another plunge lower more like something higher is expected - this is exactly what the shorter term charts daily/hourly are saying.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - signs for short term bottom, but nothing suggests intermediate term low.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold level,divergence and now close to zero - short term bottom expected.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, in oversold territory.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - close to oversold level for second time - probably short term bottom.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down, it should reset before continuation lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up and in the middle of the range, it has not even reached oversold level so this should be just short term bottom.


HURST CYCLES
Day 1? Last week it was too early for a low and it was not confirmed. Now we have probable daily cycle low at day 52 and waiting for confirmation or final low next week. Price is still below MA10 and RSI below the MA so no confirmation so far.


Week 11 for the 20 week cycle, time for mid-cycle bounce.

Aug 10, 2019

Weekly preview

I was expecting fifth wave and retracement b or 2. I think we saw extended fifth wave followed by b wave as expected just the volatility was very high. The decline is too big to count an impulse, projection will show unrealistic targets so we have waves a and b of much bigger corrective pattern.

This is in line with my expectation for a big decline with corrective waves so nothing new to add - the same like last week.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the first leg lower looks like impulse to me with extended fifth wave. Wave 1 of an impulse does not fit - neither time nor price targets. I think we have a-b with c to follow. The most common measurement is c=a and it is getting interesting:) - this will hit the trend line connecting the lows from March and June(see daily chart).
As long as the resistance zone around 2960 holds the move lower continues. Above it and we have something else.


Intermediate term - so far the price action confirms the expectations from last week - zig-zag lower testing the last two lows slightly below MA200 which should be the low of the daily cycle. MA10 and MA50 has been tested, the move continue to follow the script from October 2018 even the candles and indicators look the same, so next we should see wave c lower. Now we wait and see if the pattern plays out next week.


Long term - I expect decline in three waves with the first important low in October - a/C/IV and 40 week cycle low.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some were close to oversold levels, but not really oversold or something to suggest a low.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold level, reset and turn lower again.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - retraced in the middle of the range, I want to see oversold level for a low.
Fear Indicator VIX - resetting lower after explosive move higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range and turned lower again, I want to see oversold level for a low.


HURST CYCLES
Day 48, with this strong bounce it looks like possible daily cycle low, but this time I will follow the pattern and wait for one more decline.


Week 10 for the 20 week cycle. If you look at the DAX or EEM you will see the following:
- the current 20 week cycle made a top at week 5/6, which means bearish left translated cycle and it is declining already.
- it broke below the low of the previous 20 week cycle, which is confirmation that the cycle of higher degree(40 week) made a high and it is declining.
Short said forget about new highs before the 40 week cycle makes a low in October/November.
On the surface the US markets look stronger moving higher for 8 weeks, but in reality it is just sideway move in July and 10 points higher in week 8 above week 6. So in theory stronger in practice the same like DAX and EEM.... I can not imagine how the US markets will decouple and suddenly make higher highs now or in September.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
The setup was negated at day 7, which is another sign that we do not have an impulse structure rather corrective decline.

Aug 3, 2019

Weekly preview

June was time for a rally, July to see topping and the last day confirmed it:) - bearish monthly candle. In August we should see 2-3 weeks lower and then retracement higher. Pattern and timing seem to work so no need to change or adjust the plan at the moment.
Because of time(cycles) I expect the decline to develop in three waves and on the charts is shown how they should look like.

I wrote two weeks ago do not expect perfection it does not work this way. The perfect pattern did not play out, but we have enough waves and plenty of signs that something is wrong. FOMC is sell the news event plus 3000 broken - game over. It is not an impulse.... may be, but cycles, market breadth and indicators are pointing to much lower prices and decline until October. Not a perfect impulse or just not seeing the right pattern at the moment will not change anything the direction is lower until October, focus on the big picture - sell the rallies.
This should be the top, 3 days wiped out gains from the last 5 and a half weeks. The only way I see to extend the pattern higher is very low probability patterns - bigger EDs.... like w4 for ED from the December low or w2 for ED c/B from the June low. The 1-2 i-ii bull count is nonsense - you do not see market breadth and indicators divergences on the weekly chart in the middle of the third wave.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the decline looks like impulse to me so there is more to the downside - what are the options a-b-c or impulse. We will know in 2-3 weeks when we see the low for the daily cycle.


Intermediate term - in the next few weeks we should see daily cycle low and retracement higher probably into the first half of September.


Long term - because of time(another 10-11 months for 4 year cycle) I think the decline will be in three waves, an impulse will be finished way too early(5-6 months). On the chart is shown how a decline in three waves should look like.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - signaling intermediate term top for a few weeks and now the price follows.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal after divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - bottoming and exploded higher as expected.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower after series of lower highs.


HURST CYCLES
Day 43 - the daily cycle turned lower and it is moving fast. If it continue this way for another 2 weeks do not expect the next one to make higher high.


Week 9 for the 20 week cycle.... look at the last 5 weekly candles - it was topping and turned lower, which is not a surprise the longer term cycles are pointing lower.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
After the finished countdown comes the sell signal - price flip, triggered again with move below 3000.

Jul 27, 2019

Weekly preview

No follow trough to the downside obviously bigger than expected w4... I have shown updated version of the ED and since than the price action confirms the suggested pattern.

The big picture has not changed, just more divergencies - bearish indicators/market breadth/cycles and TomDemark finished countdown on the weekly chart. Now waiting the pattern to be finished and see confirmation for reversal.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - there is enough waves to call a top, go to shorter time frames and you will see finished impulse for possible c/5. BUT there is great sell the news event - FOMC and so far all a and c waves form 1/3/5 developed as zig-zags not impulses.
The perfect pattern - wave 1/3/5 are zig-zags and within the waves a and c are zig-zags it self too (this (a) (b) (c) labels). If the pattern and RSI from w1 and w3 repeat than we are at the point marked with the green arrows from the previous two occasions, and we will see small pullback Monday and last rally for (c)/c/5.
The perfect pattern is another zig-zag for c/5, a/5=c/5, (a)/c/5=(c)/c/5, 5=0,618x3(ED) aaaand all this Fibo measurements point to the same target 3044.

Now we can only wait and watch if the perfect pattern/Fibo will play out or the market will reverse prior FOMC. 10 points lower on Monday is ok, 20 and more will look bad. Below 3000 is the first sign for a problem and below 2975 will confirm a move to the downside is running.


Intermediate term - the trend line is tested one more time. RSI - after the broken trend line now we have divergence.
Nothing really changed, just timing - the next bigger move should be decline to at least MA50 and daily cycle low.... I think something like two weeks lower, two weeks higher and in September the decline really accelerates.


Long term - this should be the top of wave B or D and decline in three waves or impulse is expected.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - another short term divergences and turning lower again despite the strong day on Friday, the indexes are close to intermediate term high.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero, most likely will see another lower high.
McClellan Summation Index - turning lower after divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned lower, sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergences short and long term, pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergences short and long term, pointing lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - bottoming and longer term divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - another lower high and turned lower again.


HURST CYCLES
Day 38, I doubt we saw daily cycle low. I think it is topping and it will turn lower for 2 weeks.


Week 8 for the 20 week cycle. As explained last week the longer cycles 40 week(both high-to-high and trough-to-trough) are ripe for reversal.