Sep 27, 2011

Short term update

Update after the close:
What the f..k??? Complete mess!!!! Lets see tomorrow... It looks like short squeeze

SP500 has broken decisively above 1175. Too much strength, this is the new plan.

Sep 24, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

Perfect week!!! As predicted red Monday move higher and sell off. It was so strong, it went like hot knife through butter eliminating right away the alternate scenario. So my plan is still playing out - we will see a lower low before a strong move up.

The plan - 1 or 2 days relief move and then the final leg down in the next one or two weeks. I think SP500 will find support around ~1080.
Alternate scenario is some very bad fundamental news like Greek default and plunge to major support around ~1020. If it plays will not be so bad when you are on the right side:)
I think there is no much left on the down side and I am watching 1100-1080. First look at the DAX chart bellow, I think DAX is bottoming. Second we had a huge sell off this week, but this way the bear is burning its fuel too fast and this is secondary sell off not the first.

Short term - 1 or 2 days relief move reseting the histogram on the hourly chart, but first it must break resistance at 1140. Best bullish case ~1170 which is resistance,50% retracement and test of the broken trend line. Watch the histogram making tower and turning down.

DAX is holding support, very strong bounce and another hammer candlestick from the lows - support level and 61,8% Fibo retracement from the 2009 lows. It looks like a double bottom. That is one reason why I think there is no much left on the down side.

Sep 17, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

Ok I was expecting move UP but not five days:) This move makes an alternate scenario possible with the bottom already in.

I hate this, as I said several times, the big players are stretching the moves, so I question my big plan.... the same story now.
The problem is, I was expecting panic low followed by another low. We have it but on the European indexes and SP500 moves in some kind of bear flag. Is the low in or not? I have no idea. My feeling says no. If this is the bottom it looks strange, but if I look at the European indexes I do not see anything bearish. So will show both scenarios and wait the market to show the real direction.

Short term - more on the upside reaching resistance,MA50 and 50% retracement (see second chart). Pullback will follow and than we have two scenarios - bottom is in we are moving higher or my plan plays out and we will see lower low.
Probably red Monday to reset the histogram on the hourly chart, followed by a move to resistance ~1230. Then a pullback to support ~1175. After that we will see which scenario will kick in.

And the bullish looking DAX. The German index hit support and 61,8% retracement from the March 2009 bottom

Look at this chart- beautiful bottom. Panic low followed by lower low hitting support and 61,8% Fibo retracement and divergences and strong bounce. What do you want more? This is a bottom.
Who is showing the real direction? The European indexes or the American?
~6000-6100 is interesting level - 38,2% Fibo retracement from the March 2009 bottom and 38,2% Fibo retracement for the sell off this year.
And DAX the hourly chart.... pullback to support and EMA50 and reset the histogram before breaking the down channel.

Sep 12, 2011

Short term update

Gap lower today but no follow through. The probability for a move to the ~1175-1180 zone is much higher now. Support is holding and the histogram is turning up.

Sep 10, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

The SP500 reversed exactly at the resistance level and closed at the trend line. As I said two weeks ago the big players stretch the moves to the max but without damaging the technical picture. We saw exactly that this week - huge gap down but to the lower trend line, huge rally but not breaking resistance, huge drop on Friday but finding support at the trend line.

The bigger plan has not changed - we will see lower low. First target is the ~1100 area, measured move shows target ~1110(second chart). When we reach this levels I will asses the technical picture and see if this is the bottom or we will go lower to the next support level around 1040.
Alternate scenario is surprise on the upside before a lower low (more on chart bellow).

The histogram on the daily chart is still pointing down(see above) so I think SP500 will move lower.
The intraday picture shows some positive signs and we are at the lower trend line, so I think we will see 1-2 green days.This up move should not exceed the resistance level and the down sloping line ~1175-1180. From there the move on the down side should resume.
If SP500 decisively break this area it will be heading to the ~1260 level(61,8% Fibo,resistance,the upper channel line) - that is the surprising yellow scenario on the chart above.
If SP500 gap lower on Monday all bets are off next stop is the support area 1120-1100.

Sep 7, 2011

Short term update

It has played out nice, but the bounce is getting a little bit too stretched.
Either SP500 will find resistance between 61,8% retracement and the 38,2% Fibo level for the whole sell off, or it is heading to the upper boundary of the channel ~1245. I still think that we will see a low around 1100 but if SP500 does not reverse now i will change my mind.

Sep 5, 2011

Short term update

As I said short term prediction when you have long weekend is very tricky:)
The SP500 futures are 30 points lower ~1145 where the circle is on the chart - minor support level and the lower trend line. The new short term plan is bounce to resistance and continuing lower. Alternate scenario plunge bellow minor support and the trend line to stronger support level ~1120 before bounce and another sell off.
But again lets see the open tomorrow:)

Sep 3, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

The forecast from the last week nailed the moves as time and price so I am sticking to my plan and it is marginal new low 1080-1100 in the next two to three weeks.

My 2 cents - move higher to resistance 1200-1205 reseting the 60min Histogram before continuing lower. Why? - SP500 is at support level(see the chart above too),low volume on Friday after strong bearish day, MACD divergence on the 15 min chart, the histogram on the 60 min chart trying to turn UP.
Short term forecast are always tricky. Lets see the open after the holidays. Overall its not clever to short at support and I think we will see a better level to get short.