Sep 17, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

Ok I was expecting move UP but not five days:) This move makes an alternate scenario possible with the bottom already in.

I hate this, as I said several times, the big players are stretching the moves, so I question my big plan.... the same story now.
The problem is, I was expecting panic low followed by another low. We have it but on the European indexes and SP500 moves in some kind of bear flag. Is the low in or not? I have no idea. My feeling says no. If this is the bottom it looks strange, but if I look at the European indexes I do not see anything bearish. So will show both scenarios and wait the market to show the real direction.

Short term - more on the upside reaching resistance,MA50 and 50% retracement (see second chart). Pullback will follow and than we have two scenarios - bottom is in we are moving higher or my plan plays out and we will see lower low.
Probably red Monday to reset the histogram on the hourly chart, followed by a move to resistance ~1230. Then a pullback to support ~1175. After that we will see which scenario will kick in.

And the bullish looking DAX. The German index hit support and 61,8% retracement from the March 2009 bottom

Look at this chart- beautiful bottom. Panic low followed by lower low hitting support and 61,8% Fibo retracement and divergences and strong bounce. What do you want more? This is a bottom.
Who is showing the real direction? The European indexes or the American?
~6000-6100 is interesting level - 38,2% Fibo retracement from the March 2009 bottom and 38,2% Fibo retracement for the sell off this year.
And DAX the hourly chart.... pullback to support and EMA50 and reset the histogram before breaking the down channel.

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