Jul 19, 2021

Long term - update


Next few months should be choppy without a direction, not easy to trade so good luck trading!!!!!!!




Not very clear patterns. I do not see big directional moves in the next 6 months. It seems like trend change from 4y highs/lows to 4y lows/highs and all assets continue to move in sync:
- Stocks - transition from up to down.
- Bonds - higher to complete 18m cycle high then continuing lower
- USD - higher in the next few months.
- Precious metals/miners - not very clear patterns best guess up for the next high part of topping process.
- Crude Oil - correction for several months.



- STOCKS
Intermediate term topping similar to 2000 and 2007 is running. Long term we are seeing 4 year cycle high this year and then expect decline for 4 year cycle low late 2023/Q12024. NYSE showing all the 4y highs since 2000.



- BONDS
We saw the expected 18m low and now moving higher into 18m high. I guess the high should be around September, but if you take the closing high not the spike it could stretch until the end of the year.



- FOREX
EUR/USD - I think this is another 4y cycle high and we should see decline in 4y cycle low. I am not sure about the pattern, it looks like triangle to me at the moment.



- GOLD/SILVER/MINERS
GOLD - long term last year we saw 9y cycle high and I think precious metals should move lower into 9y low late 2023/Q12024 like the stock indices.
It seems the 18m cycle is moving with average length of 16 months and we have two more of them until gold reaches the important 9y cycle low. The rest of the year should be some kind up move for 18 month high currently at month 11 from the last top.


MINERS - similar like gold probably a low in the summer and higher continuing with the topping pattern. Interesting this 9y cycle is counting better as 3x3y cycles, but with the spike lower 2x4y cycles iss working goo too.



- CRUDE OIL
It is time for 18m high, weekly RSI divergence and trend line break, even if you count impulse it is time for correction. So everything points to a correction for a few months.

Jun 26, 2021

Weekly preview

We saw 5w low as expected now the final up probably 10w high then expect the final down leg for the 18m low. Obviously the b-wave of he correction has not been completed and it is more more complex matching the a-wave complexity.

P.S. I am on a holiday for three weeks so no updates the next three weeks. I will use the time to prepare long term update.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy. The analysis do not support it, probably price/RSI testing the broken trend line.
Analysis - sell. We have turn lower into 18 month low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - most likely the B-wave is bigger zig-zag. Currently we have c=0,618xa so waiting to see if this is the top or it will extend to c=a.


Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
Still in the b-wave and next is decline for the c-wave and 18m low.


Long term - we should see correction for 2-3 weeks between 10%-15% for 18m cycle low.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - do not show any reaction, still weak and sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting close to the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turning lower.
Bullish Percentage - no reaction.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - retracing towards the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - more bottoming.
Advance-Decline Issues - does not react much hanging around the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I am watching this count. It fits with the pattern and explains the sharp rise.
There is no consistent picture - different indices have different short term highs. DAX mid-April, NDX mid- or end of April, DJ/NYSE early May. SPX is mix of all this and influenced heavily by big tech stocks. The two options left are - this is the 10w high or if you take the early May high one more 10d cycle.


Week 34 for the 40w cycle. RSI testing the broken trend line and MA.