Feb 20, 2021

Weekly preview

Nothing much happened as it should be. Pullback is running and ideally we should see several days lower next week for 5w low then up again.
Alternate we saw the b-wave this week with 20d cycle low and next week is higher for THE top followed by sharp turn lower.


TRADING
Trading cycle - neutral signal. Price and RSI playing with the MAs, but expect at least one more high before thinking about sell signal.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we have the minimum for corrective b-wave(red the alternate scenario), but for now I will stick to the plan a few more days probably triangle before the next move up.


Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric.
Pullback b-wave running, the final zig-zag should begin soon.


Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing weakness and lower highs so far.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - around overbought level 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - around the lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - around the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - ideally a few more days lower for 5w low then higher.
If next week is up than I would say 20d low with length 13/14 days. We have a new 20w cycle which could have different rhythm... too early to say. This will not be a surprise - the previous one was very short only 13 weeks so the current one should be longer like 18-20 weeks. See the previous 40w cycle - 14+18 weeks and the 20d cycles 15-14-12 days length.


Week 3 for the 20 week cycle. Again looking at the high-to-high count - several weeks ago I wrote that I see three 10w cycles with length 7 weeks and promptly three and a half weeks later we have 5w high... so another three weeks, the alternate scenario one week.

Feb 13, 2021

Weekly preview

Nothing much happened this week, I see completed zig-zag and sideways reaction. I think we saw 20d low this week as expected and the indices are close to 5w high or we saw it on Friday. Next week I expect to see turn lower into 5w cycle low.


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal after 20w low... nothing much to say.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I see a zig-zag up as expected and now most likely this b-wave running.


Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric. Now this b/f-wave should follow.


Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing up, with divergences so far.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing up, divergence so far.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing up, divergence so far.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows again.
Advance-Decline Issues - testing the highs again.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - NDX shows more clear the cycle count I am watching, it is the same for the SP500. 20d low this week, close to 5w high and soon it should turn lower into 5w low.


Week 2 for the 20w cycle.


Two interesting charts, which are important as a clue for the direction of the market... just drawn quickly a few vertical lines:)

SVXY 20w and 40w highs one more time down and up to complete a zig-zag and 18m cycle high.

TSLA not very long history, but it seems the 4 year cycle lows and highs are working very good. I see huge a-b-c from the beginning and one smaller from 2019 at 4y high with double RSI divergence on the weekly chart.... difficult to be bullish.