Aug 27, 2016

Weekly preview

Short term view - I do not know.
Intermediate term view - the next bigger move is lower, but it could last a few weeks before it begins.

The indexes are lower for the week as expected, but so far the move does not look very promising. It is corrective - choppy and overlapping.

The big picture has not changed expecting a bigger move lower for the 40 week cycle low in October, but the short term pattern is not clear.
EW - the move lower looks corrective... it can extend lower or after correction a new high follows.
Cycles - Friday is day 43. It could be a low for the 40 day cycle with the next 40 day cycle making higher high or it could extend a few more days lower.
Market breadth - for the intermediate term negative, but for the short term correcting for several weeks for example McClellan Oscillator making second trough... smells like some move higher is coming.
Indicators - on the daily chart MACD has corrected lower to the zero line and the Histogram is making second trough.... like market breadth they are saying we have a correction for several weeks and to expect something higher. We could see lower for a few days, but after that a sharp retracement should follow.

Do you see what I mean - it is impossible to make a reliable forecast for the next 1-2 weeks. The market could take different paths. It could plunge for several days followed by sharp retracement, or it could try to make a new high... or something else which I do not see.
Personally I do not trade in the last two months and several times in comments I wrote that I am not interested to time this top and trade it... now you know why. Just waiting for a sign that something lower has begun or the move higher is exhausted.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - closer look the 10min chart... it is a mess,choppy,overlapping. This is a corrective move.

No clue which path the market will take.


Intermediate term - I prefer the bullish options 1-2 i-ii(green) or 1-2 of ending diagonal(white). We will see the correction in October and than we will know.


Long term - no change, cool off and reset of the indicators expected.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - are telling us that we have a correction for a few weeks. We need more to the downside so that some of them reset before the next big move higher, but short term McClellan Oscillator could be hinting to expect something higher.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero for a few weeks and working on a second trough.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, no signs of a weakness.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range heading lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving higher as expected. Another low with divergence to expect?
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range after lower high.


HURST CYCLES
Day 43 of the 40 day cycle... we should be close to a bottom.

Week 9 of the second 20 week cycle... not much left to the upside.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Unfinished business 13 is missing on the weekly chart for a countdown. Will it be finished.... I do not know.

Aug 23, 2016

Update

The indexes refuse to move lower... it is taking too long. If we do not see big red candle soon I am afraid we will have to watch this bullshit crawling 20 points higher another two weeks.
If the indexes continue higher probably we have much bigger diagonal for wave 5 and stealth 40 day cycle low with the next one making slightly higher high as expected for right translated cycle.


Similar picture for Russell2000

Aug 20, 2016

Weekly preview

Short term view - move lower expected.
Intermediate term view - lower for 2-3 weeks than higher again for 2-3 weeks.

More of the same 5 weeks sideway move, but the indexes continue working on their pattern. Nothing new just the charts updated.
We saw one final wave higher as expected and the pattern looks now finished. We saw topping around FOMC 17.08 and second top full moon 18.08. We have leg lower and pop-up after the news as expected.... only one big red candle is missing. If the indexes start moving higher again - no clue... maybe iii of 5.

Yes move lower is expected, but do not get too bearish. The 40 day cycle is bullish right translated and it has entered the time window for a low. So any move lower should be short living... it can be sharp, but should not last more than 10 trading days and the size the usual 3%-4%. Even if I am wrong we need topping process and we should see second top for some kind of a double top/M pattern.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the pattern looks finished I expected to see a move lower.


Intermediate term - nothing new divergences and move lower expected, but I do not think that this is a major top.


Long term - nothing new, I think the indicators need time to reset before the next big move higher.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week the indicators look bearish and correction is running already according to market breadth.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - second top with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - second top with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - very tight BB the volatility should shoot up in the next weeks.
Advance-Decline Issues - weakness and divergence.
NYSE New Highs-New Lows - diverging less stocks are making higher highs.
Percent of Stocks above MA200 - entering bullish mode close to 80.


HURST CYCLES
Day 38 of the 40 day cycle. We are in the time window for a bottom so any move lower should be short living and in worst case the top will be tested.

Week 8 of the second 20 week cycle.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have combo finished and countdown at 11. No price flip so far.