Apr 14, 2017

Update

I am taking a break for two weeks. The next weekly update will be on 6th of Mai... probably I will post a short update on 2/3th of Mai.
I do not expect dramatic changes... the "surprise" could be if the correction is finished in the next two weeks which is the short end of this time frame which I am counting currently at 2-4 weeks, so not really a surprise.

It is like in November, it is a correction - constantly changing short term moves and a lot of combinations possible. I have shown below two options. There is at least other two scenarios - wave d of a triangle which suggest the same higher, but the final leg lower will not make lower low or another scenario just plunging lower. I think it is more likely to see mid-cycle low of the 40 day cycle instead of a plunge and I would like to see a fear for the last leg lower so I show the scenarios which I prefer.

Some would say not very helpful so many options... I would say if you focus on following the moves on short term basis you are missing the important messages. The important messages is - it is a correction and after a correction another rally follows. The exact shape of the correction is info just for the statistic.
The price action seems to confirm my analysis - the move lower will last at least 9-10 weeks(important cycle low expected 18 month) and at week 7 we have 3-4 possible patterns which means this is just a correction.

The wave lower is already running, some retracement to resistance/MA50/MA200 and final leg lower.

Flat correction for B and final leg lower C. If it is a triangle instead of B this is will be d and e to around 2330 instead of C/4

Apr 11, 2017

Update

At the moment I see this pattern... complex wave B. It is too early in the cycle to see a plunge.

Apr 7, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - higher next week.
Intermediate term view - the correction to continue for 3-5 weeks.

We saw the price higher until Wednesday as expected, now it is more complicated.... most of the indexes have different patterns which makes me crazy:) and difficult to forecast the short term:
- Nasdaq finished wave iii of 3 and we have impulse lower followed by a-b-c (Thursday-Friday)... difficult to see some rally higher.
- XLF looks like flat b of B so next week should be higher to finish the correction(last chart).
- SP500/NYSE look more like XLF, DJ more like Nasdaq...
- Europe is strange three waves down and up but different picture - DAX with lower high/CAC with higher high/EUROSTOXX50 is testing the high....

We have short trading week and Easter. How can the big boys make more money? I think we will see pump before the long weekend(to scare shorts) and dump after the holidays(the correction taking it's course). Such scenario fits much better with cycles than the start of a sell off next week. Overall typical behavior for a correction at this stage of the pattern - long sideway move and sudden sell off(expected) for two weeks to finish the correction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - SP500 looks better like wave b of B.... nothing lower after the plunge from Wednesday. Alternate scenario is the red one - lower on Monday, but retracing higher for the rest of the week.


Intermediate term - the index finds support at MA50, the oscillators are resetting... waiting for a few days higher.


Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - pointing higher, this is just shore term move the signal for a bottom should come later in a few weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - making lower high, we should see another big red trough.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - continue making higher lows, it looks like it wants to explode higher.

HURST CYCLES
Day 9 of the last 40 day cycle. Almost 1/4 is behind us it is obviously weaker than the previous daily cycles.

Week 11 of the last 20 week cycle. Expecting to see 18 month cycle low in the first half of May.


XLF looks like flat for b of B.... one more push higher to the trend line and MA200 will look great.