Dec 16, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - final high next week and then lower.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term top expected, topping for a few weeks and a bigger decline in January.

The indexes made new highs as expected, we saw the last waves iv and v from the chart on Wednesday, NDX made finally higher high.... the price action looks like intermediate term top to me. I am out of bullish counts and patterns... the indicators look bad, cycles pointing to a high, market breadth is ok probably because we will see topping and the profitable sell opportunity will be later in January.

For those who trade PM/miners - a low was expected around the end of the year when the stocks make an intermediate term top. I think we have an intermediate term low this week. The next long term update is in two weeks, but a thought it is better to post a chart timely:) See the last chart HUI.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - when this move makes final high I do not know how to count more impulses. I do not have more bullish counts and patterns.

This is 15min CFD chart - I will be surprised if we do not see one more high on Monday. I am not sure if the cash index will follow or not, but keep it in mind. Personally I trade CFD on the indexes.


Intermediate term - quick drop to support and MA50 around 2600 then test of the high, which should last several weeks. RSI does not look good with intermediate term and short term divergences.
Primary scenario at the moment is the top of wave 3 from Feb.2016.


Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - look tired, but not signaling an intermediate plunge lower. I suppose the sell signal with really big profits and low risk will come in a few weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still strong buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergences and below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - small divergence and it looks like rounding bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned sharply lower and currently in the middle of the range. A/D cumulative is struggling and look like it is topping.


HURST CYCLES
Day 21 of the 40 day cycle.... time for mid cycle low next week.


Week 4 of the 20 week cycle.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have finished combo 13 on the weekly chart. Waiting for sell signal - a price flip.


HUI Chart
Right on time as cycles said we are seeing intermediate term low around the end of the year. I think this is not a major low, I see a rally for a few months, but the pattern is just huge sideway W-X-Y.

Dec 13, 2017

Update

Move higher as expected and now I am out of bullish counts:) last possibility is one more small iv and v to finish 5 green.

Dec 9, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - still missing the impulsive price action lower, I think we will see one more high.
Intermediate term view - close to intermediate term high and topping process in December.

We saw higher high with an exhaustion gap on Monday and a pull back... so far so good, but I do not see impulsive price action lower and looking other indexes short term up is expected. Intermediate term this should be the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the price action so far looks corrective not impulsive... I suspect bigger wave iv and one more high.


Intermediate term - the same like last week topping expected in December. Primary scenario the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low.


Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some are turning lower, but other like McClellan Summation Index will look better if we see continuation for another 2-3 weeks higher.
McClellan Oscillator - moved above zero, more divergences?
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still above 70, no sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around the 75 level, divergences before reversal?
Fear Indicator VIX - I expect more higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak plunged lower close to the zero level.


HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the 40 day cycle.


Week 3 of the next 20 week cycle.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
After finished sell setup we have several days closing in the red... we will have confirmed sell signal when we see price flip on the weekly chart and this is close below 2585-2575 area for the next two weeks.