Nothing much happened as it should be. Pullback is running and ideally we should see several days lower next week for 5w low then up again.
Alternate we saw the b-wave this week with 20d cycle low and next week is higher for THE top followed by sharp turn lower.
TRADING
Trading cycle - neutral signal. Price and RSI playing with the MAs, but expect at least one more high before thinking about sell signal.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we have the minimum for corrective b-wave(red the alternate scenario), but for now I will stick to the plan a few more days probably triangle before the next move up.
Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric.
Pullback b-wave running, the final zig-zag should begin soon.
Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing weakness and lower highs so far.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - around overbought level 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - around the lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - around the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - ideally a few more days lower for 5w low then higher.
If next week is up than I would say 20d low with length 13/14 days. We have a new 20w cycle which could have different rhythm... too early to say. This will not be a surprise - the previous one was very short only 13 weeks so the current one should be longer like 18-20 weeks. See the previous 40w cycle - 14+18 weeks and the 20d cycles 15-14-12 days length.
Week 3 for the 20 week cycle. Again looking at the high-to-high count - several weeks ago I wrote that I see three 10w cycles with length 7 weeks and promptly three and a half weeks later we have 5w high... so another three weeks, the alternate scenario one week.
Feb 20, 2021
Feb 13, 2021
Weekly preview
Nothing much happened this week, I see completed zig-zag and sideways reaction. I think we saw 20d low this week as expected and the indices are close to 5w high or we saw it on Friday. Next week I expect to see turn lower into 5w cycle low.
TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal after 20w low... nothing much to say.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I see a zig-zag up as expected and now most likely this b-wave running.
Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric. Now this b/f-wave should follow.
Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing up, with divergences so far.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing up, divergence so far.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing up, divergence so far.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows again.
Advance-Decline Issues - testing the highs again.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - NDX shows more clear the cycle count I am watching, it is the same for the SP500. 20d low this week, close to 5w high and soon it should turn lower into 5w low.
Week 2 for the 20w cycle.
Two interesting charts, which are important as a clue for the direction of the market... just drawn quickly a few vertical lines:)
SVXY 20w and 40w highs one more time down and up to complete a zig-zag and 18m cycle high.
TSLA not very long history, but it seems the 4 year cycle lows and highs are working very good. I see huge a-b-c from the beginning and one smaller from 2019 at 4y high with double RSI divergence on the weekly chart.... difficult to be bullish.
Trading cycle - buy signal after 20w low... nothing much to say.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I see a zig-zag up as expected and now most likely this b-wave running.
Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric. Now this b/f-wave should follow.
Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing up, with divergences so far.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing up, divergence so far.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing up, divergence so far.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows again.
Advance-Decline Issues - testing the highs again.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - NDX shows more clear the cycle count I am watching, it is the same for the SP500. 20d low this week, close to 5w high and soon it should turn lower into 5w low.
Week 2 for the 20w cycle.
Two interesting charts, which are important as a clue for the direction of the market... just drawn quickly a few vertical lines:)
SVXY 20w and 40w highs one more time down and up to complete a zig-zag and 18m cycle high.
TSLA not very long history, but it seems the 4 year cycle lows and highs are working very good. I see huge a-b-c from the beginning and one smaller from 2019 at 4y high with double RSI divergence on the weekly chart.... difficult to be bullish.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)