Dec 10, 2016

Weekly preview

Short term view - short term top and pullback expected.
Intermediate term view - we should see topping for a few weeks followed by a move lower for several months.

Short term the market choose the move higher which I have shown last week. Despite all the "strength" this move does not look good. This is not a sustainable path, market breadth looks poor, the weekly indicators showing divergences.

Short term - this leg is near its end. I think toping should start next week and the top should be retested later - then we watch for a higher high with divergence or lower high. I do not expect a sell off in December.
Intermediate term - it is either crappy wave 1 of V or wave 5 of III(no idea how to count is as an impulse except ugly diagonal) or the indexes are still in wave IV and this is B of it.
Other options with lower probability - wave 1 of ED for V, this is the final top wave V of the bull market or this is wave 3 of V higher is running.

So thank you for the shitty analysis and that crap EW:))) Not so fast - focus on trading not analysis. Instead of trying to guess the pattern it is better to look at the message and it is in 5 of 6 cases expect serious move lower and one bullish scenario just because the market has two directions and for which I do not see any evidence.
Add to this that we have indicators with divergences on the weekly chart and market breadth with triple divergences what you want to see around important top. So what are the odds that after a top we will see a move lower for months and 10% correction?


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks to me like finished 5 waves from the bottom.


Intermediate term - vertical move this is not sustainable the indexes are heading for important top. They will not just reverse and plunge, the top will be tested then a move lower for a few months should begin.


Long term - I switched to SP500 chart for a consistent view. I think we will see a deep correction then the final mania phase of the bull market.
Many patterns one outcome correction and then higher - wave 5 of III(red), B of IV(green), 1 of V(yellow).


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - too weak with divergences for such "powerful" move. I think the indexes are headed for an important top.
McClellan Oscillator - second top and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, long term divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, long term divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal, long term divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak could not move to overbought territory.


HURST CYCLES
Day 24 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 5 of the 20 week cycle. I think in a few weeks we should see a 20 week/40 week/18 month cycle top.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Combo at 12 and countdown at 11. Next week they should be finished.


Indexes which look like a diagonal NASDAQ and DAX not like the crap SP500:)

Dec 3, 2016

Weekly preview

Short term view - decision time for the two patterns so I do not know just waiting.
Intermediate term view - one more higher high expected before intermediate term top.

Small pullback as expected.... now waiting to see which scenario will play out - the pullback bottoms soon and makes one more higher high with divergences(wedge from the February bottom) or it moves another 30-40 points lower and than makes a higher high for a wedge from the June bottom. Now it is decision time because in the next 1-2 weeks the two patterns should move in different directions the first making final high around FOMC 14.12 the other making a low around FOMC followed by the final rally.

All this is short term play, intermediate term I think the next high whenever it comes will be the high for the move from the February low and a correction for 2-3 months should follow.
The same picture for Bonds,USD and precious metals - they all look like corrective pullback is running, one final low/high is expected than trend reversal for 2-3 months. So all markets suggest the same - waiting for a few weeks, than the trade should reverse for 2-3 months from "risk on"(stocks) to "risk off"(bonds and PM).


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - so far we have a small pullback heading for 20 day cycle low and the oscillators resetting on the daily chart. It is difficult to say which way the market will move. There is enough arguments for both patterns.


Intermediate term - the two scenarios how they should look like. Wedge from the February low(green) and A-B-C with a wedge for C from the June bottom(white).


Long term - no change, waiting for the final top and correction for 2-3 months.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - very weak for indexes which are making ATHs. This is what we want to see - the indicators resetting from oversold levels, but divergences and important top in a few weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - building multiple divergences for the next important top.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Heading lower for 20 day cycle after that we should see a higher high and the top of the 40 day cycle.

Week four of the next 20 week cycle. I think in a few weeks we should see a 20 week/40 week/18 month cycle top.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
After a combo finished at the previous top now we have finished countdown on the weekly chart too. Waiting for a price flip to signal a reversal lower.

Nov 26, 2016

Weekly preview

Short term view - topping to start and a pullback lower.
Intermediate term view - a few more weeks before we can think of a top.

Nothing new just the charts updated. If this is a wedge from the February low a top should be imminent. Looking at the technical indicators and market breadth I do not see such outcome at the moment. So either the topping will continue for several weeks or it is the pattern which I am following - a wedge but from the June low.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the move from the November low looks like A-B-C to me.


Intermediate term - the two scenarios. Red is a wedge from the February low and this should be the last wave 5.


Long term - no change.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - is resetting higher, but it is visibly much weaker. Expect divergences and important top... but there is a few more weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - well above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - nearing the upper range.
Fear Indicator VIX - building multiple divergences for the next important top.
Advance-Decline Issues - nearing the upper range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 14 from the 40 day cycle. At least a pullback for 20 day cycle low is expected.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
The move is strong enough not to expect sudden reversal. We have finished setup and countdown is running.


Silver - the same pattern as Gold. We have 5 waves lower which means the correction which begun is not finished. There is two options - this is wave A and we should expect B and C(red) or we need 7 waves for finished corrective move double zig-zag W-X-Y(green). I thought the USD is still in the triangle in this case A-B-C(red) was looking great... now not so much.
In both cases bounce higher is expected because from the November top we have 5 waves lower with divergence followed by one more lower low. I can not see a finished pattern at the moment.
MA50/MA200 are resistance now. If the bounce higher hit them with a zig-zag than watch the green scenario. If the bounce hit them with an impulse than watch the red scenario.