Jun 12, 2021

Weekly preview

As expected more time and zig-zags were need to complete the pattern for 10w high - the same for 8-th week. Next is lower for c-wave and 5w low.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy. Still above MA10, but I expect a turn lower soon.
Analysis - sell. We have transition from 18 month high into 18 month low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - as expected we are seeing another double zig-zag to complete c/B. Interesting is Fibo targets for three different degrees of waves converge together around 4260. Next week the B-wave should be completed followed by decline for the C-wave


Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
Nothing new to add - double top and time for a decline.


Long term - the move from March 2020 is completed and we are seeing transition from up to down. Expect 4-6 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be. This long sideways phase points to the a-b green scenario.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change weakness the oscillators are turning lower.
McClellan Oscillator - series of lower highs short term and intermediate turn.
McClellan Summation Index - buy ssignal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turning lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - heading lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - double bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - turning lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - as expected several days needed to complete the 20d and 10w cycle high. Next is decline into 5w low.


Week 14/32 for the 20w/40w cycle.

Jun 5, 2021

Weekly preview

Another week of nothing. It is taking a lot of time and my interpretation is we are seeing 10w cycle high not 5w with a double top.
According to cycle and pattern analysis another 2-3 days. In fact you do not need to make analysis just watch the comments - we are seeing the usual crap spiking again at a top.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy. Still above MA10. RSI is playing around with MA and the trend line not showing much strength.
Analysis - sell, we have transition from 18 month high into 18 month low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - ugly b/B and now c/B running. There is already one zig-zag up with a=c, but it is too short - time and size compared to a/B so I guess it is a/c/B and we will see another double zig-zag to complete c/B. As long as it stays above 4190 this is the plan.


Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
The same story the indicators are resetting higher before a move lower.


Long term - the move from March 2020 is completed and we are seeing transition from up to down. Expect 4-6 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - mixed, some turned up, but I do not think this is buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - making lower highs short term and intermediate term.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up .
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - doing nothing.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - hanging around 75 and doing nothing.
Fear Indicator VIX - it looks like double bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - another lower high.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this sideways move is taking very long so the indices are close to 10w high. So far we have the minimum 9 days for the last 20d cycle high, it could take another 2-3 days.
There is two options - high in May and now 5w high or high in April and now 10w high.
If you look at the weekly chart below you will see that this is week 31 or another 4-6 weeks for a 40w low with average length. This makes the option 18m high in April more likely - it will take less time. The other option will need much longer somewhere in the middle you need 1-2 weeks for 10w high and it will take more time.
This is another confirmation that the cycle high was mid-April right on schedule. I have explained last week about the cycle highs if someone wonders why this strange looking cycle high analysis.


Week 31 for the 40w cycle.