Nov 27, 2021

Weekly preview

Lower as expected, the indices should be close to 10w low. They look different - DAX like reversal, DJ/NYSE reversal but b-wave is still on the table, SPX/NDX too early to confirm reversal. Waiting for the low and the reaction to make some conclusions. Tech indices could make higher high and other indices lower high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, close to a low so it is a better idea to wait for the next high if you want to sell.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waiting for more price action one option is impulse c/Z completed or complex wave b/Z running.


Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
Another reaction after testing the trend lines.... waiting to see how big.


Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, waiting to see just short term top or something more.
McClellan Oscillator - nearing oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower at 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower at 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher, we need higher high to confirm reversal.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower, nearing oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - lower into 20d low as expected. This should be 10w low... the highs look messy next week we should see turn higher for 5w high. Most bullish case another 5 weeks and 10/20/40w high. Most bearish case we saw 4y top.


Week 8 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year.

Nov 20, 2021

Weekly preview

This should be short term high 20d cycle high. Very mixed picture - NDX strong higher, SPX testng the high becaue of tech stocks, DJ/NYSE lower.... are the indices diverging at THE top? The pattern looks like another double zig-zag and the cycles nearing 20w high. We have to wait for more clarity.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I would say some kind of double zig-zag.


Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z from the March.2020 low. NDX shows possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y https://invst.ly/wnvob.
Reaction after testing the trend lines.... still waiting for more price action.


Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish".


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change, at least short term top. Is it something more - we have to wait and see.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turning lower.
Bullish Percentage - hit overbought level 70 and turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower after touching overbought level 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows so far... double bottoms short term and intermediate term..
Advance-Decline Issues - lower highs and turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - day 10 so the indices should be close or at 20d high and next is lower for 20d low. Intermediate term - could it be 20w high?


Week 7 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year. The cycle sequence high-low looks perect so I will follow this model until proven wrong.