Oct 16, 2021

Weekly preview

The triangle was negated and it looks very messy:) We know that the indices are heading into 10w high, the pattern I think it is B-wave better visible if you look at NYSE/DJI.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, higher into 10w high confirmed.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - not clear..... intermedite term I think it is a B-wave.


Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
Look at NYSE/DJI - from mid-August I see zig-zag lower A and zig-zag higher B all this two months or 10 weeks high-to-high.


Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned up.... reversal?
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - in a range for a long time.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher, lower high so far.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - for the moment sticking with this model. In the next days we should see 10w high.


Week 12 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. Intermediate term two options and I think the bullish one is more likely:
- bullish 40w/18m cycle low in November with one extra 20w cycle - time adjusting for the missing one from 2020.
- bearish the 18m low was in July which means decline into 20w low only.

Oct 9, 2021

Weekly preview

After 10w low in September now watching for 10w high in October. Last week I have shown triangle because it makes most sense from cycle point of view - completed pattern for a cycle low followed by another pattern completing for the corresponding cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. 10w high is expected and this is what the MA10 trigger is showing.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - triangle B-wave seems the most likely scenario so I continue to watch it as my primary pattern.


Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
It seems price is consolidating below the broken trend line and MA50.


Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - bounced higher this week. No change in the big picture the indices should be in the middle of intermediate term correction.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - bounce higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - bounce up rom the 25 level.
Fear Indicator VIX - nothing interesting.....
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range around zero.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - no surprises we have the 20d low on day 9 or 10 depends on if you look at futures or cash index. Now close/at 20d high... next week we should see decline into 20d/5w low.


Week 11 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. Intermediate term two options and I think the bullish one is more likely:
- bullish 40w/18m cycle low in November with one extra 20w cycle - time adjusting for the missing one from 2020.
- bearish the 18m low was in July which means decline into 20w low only.