Oct 12, 2019

Weekly preview

I see another zig-zag - two legs higher with the same size, so the corrective price action continues.
Nothing new, the same analysis like last week - final sell off expected into the end of the Month for 40 week cycle low and higher for 2-3 months. Looking at different indexes or crude oil for example, I think b/B is running.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another corrective move, even if it somehow extends higher I do not think this is an impulse.


Intermediate term - from the low in August the move looks like some kind of corrective b wave. I expect one more sell off to complete the correction which begun late July - most likely 40 week cycle low and at least the lower trend line should be tested.
For something bearish price should break below it.


Long term - at the moment I expect a correction to be finished late October/ early November. Then a rally for 2-3 months followed by final sell off to finish the correction which begun in 2018.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the oscillators are resetting from slightly oversold levels and trend following indicators are in the middle of a decline. We should see at least one more sell off to suggest intermediate term low.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting from slightly oversold leveland now positive.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned up, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower, but I expect one more spike.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 40 for the daily cycle.


Week 19 for the 20 week cycle.

Oct 5, 2019

Weekly preview

A lot of volatility and another corrective a-b-c. It is complete mess corrective waves in both directions and too many possible patterns. With cycles it is not 100% clear either. The two main options are this consolidation and when it is over continuation higher or topping pattern is running. At the moment it is difficult to say with very high probability which one it is. What I think I know:)
- Consolidation - I want to see finished pattern lower with final impulse wave c, 40w cycle low around the end of October, market breadth signaling intermediate term low. There is no such signals and small a-b-c lower does not look enough for me.
- Topping - I want to see finished pattern and reversal with impulse. The zig-zag from September is not enough so at least one more high is missing.

No matter bullish(consolidation) or bearish(topping) both cases do not look complete. At the moment I am just watching no need to guess. I will assume it is consolidation, than we should see another 2-3 weeks lower and a low below the August lows for a finished corrective pattern.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - corrective zig-zag higher in September, this decline is another a-b-c my suspicion was confirmed. I will make a guess - this rocket launch is another corrective zig-zag:))).
If we see test of the high with another zig-zag(c=a red) it will be dangerous for the bulls see the third chart. In this case the bulls must hope this is triangle and not ED.


Intermediate term - lower as expected, but I can not see finished pattern and reversal. to the upside the price is testing resistance/MA50 and the gap was closed. In the case of consolidation another decline should follow to test the lower trend line. 40 week cycle low should be followed by 2-3 months higher and test of the upper trend line.... in this case the 1,38 Fibo level will be hit, which is usual extension for B waves in expanded flat.

For something bearish the lower trend line(shown above) should be broken and at least the March/June lows tested. Here is one bearish pattern... who knows with so many zig-zags. In this case B=1,23xA the other usual extension for expanded flat.


Long term - at the moment I will assume that a correction will be finished in October. Then a rally for 2-3 months followed by final sell off to finish the correction which begun in 2018.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned up signaling short term bottom, but no signs for important low.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly oversold and turned higher, close to zero now.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, turned lower from overbought levels.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracement and one more spike expected.
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold levels has not been reached, now around the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
This low is another option for 40 week cycle low - 10 weeks from June to 5th of August and 8 weeks from this August low until this week for 40 week cycle with length 41 weeks. The pattern and market breadth does not really signal an intermediate low, but who knows.

Day 35 another 2-3 weeks needed for finished daily cycle.


Week 18 for the 20 week cycle.

Sep 28, 2019

Weekly preview

The choppy price action continues, I can not see clear reversal pattern it looks corrective. For some indexes like NDX and RUT you can say ok it is impulse lower, but for NYSE/SP500/DJI it is a long shot, you can only assume we have reversal and wait for confirmation - lower high.

The EW pattern lower is not convincing, cycles expect a bounce from mid-daily cycle low, oscillators like the histogram or McClellan Oscillator resetting for two weeks so I expect one more high, but I will watch closely if we have just deep retracement and turn lower.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the corrective move lasts longer than expected and now the a-b-c from mid-August looks like 1-2-3 with missing fifth wave. I can not see convincing impulse lower, but lets say I am wrong than we have a-b-c higher and 1-2(red) now running.
RSI with downtrend, but overlapping and ready to break above the trend line - no signs for an impulse lower.


Intermediate term - with one more high for wave B you have to count double zig-zag w-x-y(red).
MACD with double divergence. RSI with double divergence and broke below the trend line, probably it will be tested with divergence. The histogram should make a lower high and divergence. The indicators are bearish and signal topping process is running. The price is at support and MA50 so we should see something higher.


Long term - one final leg lower into 2020 to complete the correction. The big question is if the decline will be a zig-zag or an impulse.
All the indicators look bearish like on the daily chart - topping and intermediate term high.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - with multiple divergences signaling important high around the corner. Now preparing for short term divergences and the end of this rally which begun in August.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting and below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower and sell signal, but I think we will see a divergence first.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal reached the overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - double divergence and turned lower, I expect short term divergence as a sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - double divergence and turned lower, I expect short term divergence as a sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - I expect higher low, when the market makes higher high.
Advance-Decline Issues - plunged lower to the zero area, I expect lower high and divergence.


HURST CYCLES
This move up is taking too long and if we see another 2-3 weeks higher the more likely count is 40 week cycle low in late August. This will mean 20 week cycle lasting 12 weeks and 40 week cycle lasting 35 weeks. I have seen such occasions when one 20 week cycle is too long and the other one is shorter so 35 weeks for the 40w cycle is perfectly fine the average anyway. We can only wait and see how long it will take the current move to make a high and how big the subsequent decline will be. For now I will stick to the current count.

Day 30 for the daily cycle. The most likely count is that we saw half daily cycle low(or 40 day cycle low) this week.


Week 17 for the 20 week cycle... it is taking too long.