Jan 18, 2020

Weekly preview

As expected at least a week was needed for w5 to be completed. Now time and pattern look mature and waiting for reversal signs. Interesting if we will see another few days before reversal for perfect cycle high the middle of next week.

The top of this w5 should be the top of wave c/B and the charts below show why I still stick to this count....


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it will be great to see one more down up with RSI divergence, but it is not a guarantee. Looking at AAPL we have the minimum for v/5 - ED making higher high so I will not be surprised to see the indexes lower on Monday. If we see the channel broken(red) with high probability the move from 6th of January is over.


Intermediate term - as explained impulse with extended first wave 3=0,618x1 5=0,382x1, on intermediate term scale c=0,618xa and long term B=1,618xA.... three different degree of Fibo measurements converge to the same target - I would not ignore this message.
The first wave lasted 40 trading days, the third wave 20 trading days and the fifth wave is now 10 trading days long so time and price measurements are satisfied.


Long term - at the top of wave B, after that expect sell off to begin and to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018.
Many said where is my alternate scenario so here it is - according Neely wave B with such size are not fully retraced so three waves decline for C triangle or impulse C for running flat... the decline will be only 25% not 30%:))))


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - mixed signals some are strong some with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - turned lower with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with long term divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, in the overbought area for a while.
Bullish Percentage - strong, buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal, it looks like double top.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low and divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - another lower high and divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the price is above MA10 the signal is still on buy, RSI with divergence oscillating around MA18 - the trading cycle should turn lower soon, triggering a sell signal will take a while most likely breaking below MA10 and testing it.


Week 15 for the 20 week cycle, week 37 for the 40 week high-to-high cycle - 4 year cycle high is imminent.


The charts below are showing what I am explaining for two years and I do not see a reason to change my mind because the pattern has not changed - a bunch of corrective waves, there is no third waves.
If you think this is wrong just buy because according to the bulls we are in the middle of the third wave. The self proclaimed EW god Avi Gilburt sees 100 point lower and another 600+ points higher.
My opinion is SP500/NDX will follow the rest of the world and not the opposite the rest of the world following AAPL(a few tech stocks distorting this two indexes).... by the way look at AAPL just test of the break out now support zone around 220 is already 30% correction. What do you think will happen with the indexes if AAPL is down 30%? So good luck.

EUROPE


JAPAN


EMERGING MARKETS


NYSE


DJT


RUSSELL2000


XLF


CYCLES

Jan 11, 2020

Weekly preview

Waves 4 and 5 playing out as expected, interesting is the futures has much bigger wave 4 and the pattern looks now like impulse with a wedge shape, but not ED. The charts are adjusted accordingly to be in sync with futures.
The cycles suggest short term we should see another 1-1,5 weeks higher and long term this should be important top - 4y cycle high. The minimum is a few weeks decline for 20 week cycle low late February/first week of March.
Crude oil with reversal at week 38(high-to-high) the previous time in April 2019 it made a high a week before the indices... which are now at week 36.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - w4 was finished on Monday, but of higher degree and now in w5. RSI shows very weak move and divergence which fits with wave 5 price action. At least one more high is needed for impulse(white), but I think it will stretch in time probably as ED(yellow).
Of course impulsive break below support will mean the move from October is finished.


Intermediate term - I have changed the count with triangle for b/B because the futures are showing much bigger decline for this w4 and with this count they are in sync. A triangle pattern will explain 40w low in October despite the higher low.
From October we have an impulse with wedge shape, but no overlapping. The first wave was roughly 40 trading days, the third wave 20 trading days and if the fifth wave is 10 trading days it will fit perfect with another 1-1,5 weeks higher for 20 week cycle high(see below).
Usually the wedges/ED retrace to the point where they have started, and this is exactly what should happen if my EW and cycle count is right.
Now we have RSI divergence which is much better for an expected intermediate term high.


Long term - close to the top of wave B, after that expect sell off to begin and to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same... only the bullish percentage is ok the others do not follow the price higher.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around zero, with multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, in the overbought area and waiting for turn lower.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower and short term divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows and double divergence...
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower with divergences, needs to break below the trend line to confirm reversal.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the price is above MA10 the signal is still on buy, RSI with double divergence oscillating around MA18 - the cycle is getting weak and should turn lower soon.
Hurst cycles - SP500 highs the last 20w(blue arrows) cycle with 20d sine wave. It looks like another 20d cycle high, for perfect 20w cycle one more 20d cycle is needed...

SP500 lows the last 20w(black arrows) cycle with 20d sine wave. It looks like we had another 20d cycle low early this week. Counting eight such cycles point to the first week of March.

DJ lows 40d cycle. I find it interesting that if you synchronize the sine wave with the lows and slightly longer cycle 32 trading days instead of 28(for SP500 above with a low in October are slightly shorter), four cycle for 20w cycle point to the same time frame - the first week of March.


Week 14 for the 20 week cycle, week 36 for the 40 week high-to-high cycle.