Jun 25, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - small move lower and then it is more likely to see one final high.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term top expected followed by sharp correction lower.

Move up to touch the trend line and reversal... not much of a surprise. The same analysis - either some kind of corrective wave 4 or if we see a reversal we will have only three waves from the April bottom which means B from expanded flat. It is taking too long for a reversal and after the ugly candle from Tuesday there is no follow through so the odds are higher that we have some wave 4 and one more higher high will follow.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - as long as the price stays around support MA200 we have wave 4 and another high will follow(yellow). For something bearish we need clear and convincing move lower below support(red).


Intermediate term - waiting for intermediate top. The bearish scenario flat correction is in fact more bullish - it allows you to count iv-v of 3 then 4-5. If the price continue higher I do not see other way except counting it as the top of wave 3.


Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned bullish last week, but now they are looking bad again.... just more and more weakness.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero now.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with multiple divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - in overbought territory with divergences.
Bullish Percentage - the only one showing some strength moving above 70.... if you ignore the divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - touched overbought level and reversed sharply.
Fear Indicator VIX - very very tight BB again we should see a spike higher again.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range heading lower since early June.


HURST CYCLES
Day 26 of the 40 day cycle.


Week 12 of the last 20 week cycle.... I am asking myself if the 18 month cycle low was in April???

Jun 21, 2017

Update

Move up to touch one more time the trend line and nasty reversal candle with more divergences. The Jury is still out there to decide if this is an impulse or wave B of expanded flat.... I think we will see a move lower to the 2415 area support/38%Fibo/MA50. If it is corrective we will see one more higher high if it is an impulse we will see a bounce from MA50 and lower to MA200:) classical technical analysis.

Jun 17, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - at the moment one more higher high looks more likely.
Intermediate term view - expecting intermediate term top and sharp correction.

Choppy sideway week.... the same analysis, the difference is the mess from this week is corrective pattern so far, which favors one more higher high.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same patterns, at the moment we have only flat or a triangle for wave 4 which favors the bullish outcome. For the bearish case we need a strong reversal next week so that we have an impulse lower.


Intermediate term - no change. The next high will be intermediate term top.


Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same story... only "Percent of Stocks above MA50" is trying to move into overbought territory, but most of the indicators with double divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero with long term divergence - lower tops since late 2016..
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but with double divergence since March.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 with double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trying to move into overbought territory, with divergences since the beginning of 2017.
Fear Indicator VIX - I think we will see a spike higher soon.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, but turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Day 21 of the 40 day cycle.


Week 11 of the last 20 week cycle, waiting for the top of the 18 month cycle.


GDXJ cycles - the next important low should be in Q4 2017. It is in the last 4th 24 week cycle of the 22 month cycle so the longer cycles 48/96 week are pointing lower. It is not a surprise that we have very weak start - 1/4 of it 6 weeks are behind us and I do not see much strength. The most bullish case I can see is a test of MA50. It will be very surprising to see something more bullish so late in the cycle with such weak price action. Most likely we have an A-B-C from the top and we will see important low for C in Q4.