Jan 29, 2022

Weekly preview

Volatile week, but nothing really new... some sideways move which looks corrective and this should be 5 week high. The same like last week - expecting intermediate term low soon and higher into 10w high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, we should see soon intermediate term low.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, close to potential major top. Intermediate term close to intermediate term low. Trades depending on your time frame.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - no new information so the same patterns.... looking at RSI daily it should be an a-b-c pattern from the November high. Part of what is this a-b-c, b/Z or something else is more difficult question.


Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
Struggling below MA200 and the trend line not so bullish. Bearish(red) and bullish(green) outcome shown for the coming bounce.


Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, the indices should be close to a low, but there is room for another decline.
McClellan Oscillator - bounce from oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - levels where usually an intermediaterm low is seen.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - nearing oversold levels.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low followed by higher high... trend reversal???
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold level reached the sell off is showing strength.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like second 20d cycle high for 5w high. After that we should see something like one week lower for 10w low(probably 20w low too).


Week 17 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.

Jan 22, 2022

Weekly preview

The decline is not a surprise... but it is getting too big and it could be impulse. It has the same size like the biggest decline the X-wave from September 2020 and if we see impulse lower it will hint reversal.
How to justify something else:
- if we see impulse lower - huge expanded flat b/Z wave for a flat Z. The problem with that is sub-wave c/b/Z is bigger than primary X-wave.
- try to count impulse and this is wave 4 zig-zag or triangle because it has to alternate with wave 2 from September 2020 which was a flat. The problem with that is I can not see an impulse and I do not think cycles support such pattern... unless the 4y cycle consist of two 2y cycles instead of three 18m cycles.
For now waiting to see how the decline will be completed with impulse or zig-zag. I guess up into FOMC and final low for this decline.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, heading into intermediate term low in the next 1-2 weeks.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waiting to see if we have impulse or zig-zag lower. In the case of impulsee more likely reversal(red), the bulls can hope for expanded flat b/Z(yellow) and Z-wave flat.


Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
The middle trendline and MA200 reached, waiting to see if impulse will be completed or not.


Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences and RSI breaking the trendline. Usually this means reversal or one final high.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - heading lower and there is more room for further decline.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold level reeached.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - heading lower, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - heading lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher after higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower,oversold level reeached.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like we have 10w cycle with three longer 20d cycles instead four 20d cycles.... and the 5w low is not well visible. My guess up untill FOMC for 5w high(on time fourth week) and final low first week of February.


Week 16 for the 20 week cycle.
Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out.