Apr 25, 2018
Update
We have a corrective move lower to the expected area, but it is moving very fast. The problem is the indicators and cycles do not point to a low, they need more time. So if the corrective action continue for another week the indicators/cycles will look ok. The weekly histogram and the price action will look like in 2011 and 2015(I am showing this for several weeks). TNX will finish the fifth wave and make and intermediate term high. Too many signs for a bullish outcome and this shifts the odds to the bullish triangle and wave E of it already running or even this is the low.
The alternate scenarios if we see reversal now - bigger leg of bullish/bearish triangle or the bearish options they do not fit with indicators and market breadth....
I hope this scenario will play out, it will be great for trading. The other options are another two months crap.
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Krasi, thanks again for your update. You have drawn white horizontal resistance line. May I know what's the logic for the bottom white horizontal resistance line? Fib retracement?
ReplyDeleteJust a resistance zone if e is not finished and we see double zig-zag.
ReplyDeleteOk got it. Thanks :)
DeleteWith a close in positive territory, wouldn't we be looking at a Hammer off of the 200 day sma?
ReplyDeleteYes, it will look like a hammer. That is why one option is finished zig-zag today and reversal.
DeleteStill quite weak... do you think another wave down tomorrow, that will make the down move a full wave?
DeleteAre you thinking this is the bearish triangle and a reversal higher for wave C?
DeleteTomorrow we should see a bounce up. We have already a zig-zag lower.
DeleteI can not tell at the moment, I need to see the bounce up. Now I prefer more the bullish triangle, but to be sure I want to see one more leg lower like on the chart.
Hi Krasi! Funny as today's rebound is decisive... 2680 invalidating the double zig zag lower? The perfect way would be a rally that fades today, for a bad weekly close tomorrow, and turnaround tuesday on the 1st of may. Are you still sticking to the last chart you published, or this moves makes you change your mind? good luck!
ReplyDeleteI have not changed my mind. As long as the resistance zone holds and we do not see an impulse in the opposite direction I think one more leg lower will look better.
DeleteWe need all this up and down, it should be a triangle:)
Is the a target range for e of IV on the pullback? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteI do not understand the question.
DeleteGiven DXY and USDJPY impulsive up move almost finished , how about gold? still range move or the final move down? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIf you mean short term gold looks like five waves lower too so bounce higher is expected.
Deletesorry my question wasn't clear. the chart above shows a bounce to 2660 and then a pullback to around 2560. Is there a target range around the 2560 number that would be a signal the bounce higher to begin?
ReplyDeleteIt is too early at the moment. You can only measure another leg lower with the same size like the first one.
DeleteThe GDP report will be issued tomorrow morning and will include figures on the Employment Cost Index (ECI). If you recall, a jump in the ECI was identified as the event that began the sell off in February. It will be interesting to see if this reading tomorrow will coincide with the follow through of wave E.
ReplyDeleteI do not follow news, everything is already included in the pattern.
DeleteI hope we will see one more leg lower. This way we will have nice completed pattern and very good trading opportunity.
how do you decide the time frame? it looks like we get to your target way quicker than the time frame you expect
ReplyDeleteI use cycles as a guidance, but I do not make deep dive.
DeleteYes, it is developing much faster, that is why I switched from bearish to bullish triangle.
The difference was time and now the pattern start pointing in this direction too.
For example I have shown daily chart with top-to-top and bottom-to-bottom counts. The trading days between tops is usually around 35 and now we have only 25. It happens, you can not say in advance if we have short cycle or not. Just following the market and adjust if necessary.
Hi krasi ! So today is the day... a mere 10point to invalidate another zig zag lower... or an impulse to 2640s which would validate the reversal too... if we do break up on the upside from here, what are your short term target? Looks like 2800s are achievable pretty quickly around mid may... what are your thoughts? Thx
ReplyDeleteJust waiting for the market to make a decision. So far the futures do not look like an impulse to the upside so no change.
DeleteI have been usually confused by more complicated corrections and series of a, b, and c moves and then d and e follow ups. All I see in this correction is a retest of the low which happened on April 02 and since then a rally with higher lows.. given the assumption that this is wave 4 of V we should see at least a retest of the highs and most likely much higher. So far there is no visible euphoria yet and no visible reason for the market to start collapsing. To me the coming of the last 5 waves of lower degree may prove quite extended. Just the way I see it now.. what do you think Krasi?
ReplyDeleteKris
The euphoria was in January, now the market digest it and one final and weaker high 2950-3000.
DeleteOverall typical topping pattern for 6 months.
Hopefully you can update the status? It seems not bullish but bearish either... But still possible another wave up? Like next monday
ReplyDeleteTwo options for a triangle tomorrow I will post the charts.
Delete