Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high expected.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some complex corrective pattern which is completed or close to completition. I see double zig-zag X-wave and another zig-zag.
Intermediate term - removed the triangle does not look very likely. Added some labels for the decline - complex pattern zig-zag plus expanded flat. Interesting it works for most of the indices and synchronizes with the Eruopean indices. The more important question is - is this the high or later in two months? From cycle perspective a high in two months will fit perfect, but often it does not play out perfect just close enough. We can be sure only when we see the next decline.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing weakness and lower highs.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs and short term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - weak, lower high, below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - lower highs, below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower, again half a point shy of 17.5 - to hit the long term trend line.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to the next 20d high at week 8 so this should be 10w high. After that decline for 2-3 weeks should follow for 10w low.
Week 15 for the 20w cycle. It is not clear what is going on with 20w cycle low - we have 5 weeks higher when we should see a decline, it is unusuall but sharp decline for 2-3 weeks could do the job completing flat correction.
The most obvious 18m low is in October, alternate 18m low in June.
Hello Krasi. Thanks much for your weekly update above. In the intermediate-term SPX chart above, you state: "The more important question is - is this the high or later in two months? From cycle perspective a high in two months will fit perfect, but often it does not play out perfect just close enough. We can be sure only when we see the next decline." Could you please explain what you would be looking for specifically in said coming decline to tip you off - price dropping but remaining above December lows, the speed/duration of decline, corrective vs. impulsive move, ??? I am trying to absorb as much of your cycles / EW knowledge as I can. Much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteBelow the October low for reversal. The December low is just to complete correction and 20w low.
DeleteThank you very much sir for your input/perspective.
DeleteDo you see DAX moving below Dec low for a 20 week low as well?
ReplyDeleteProbably test of the low and not significantly below it.
DeleteThanks Krasi
ReplyDeletegaps in 3600 and 3740, possible targets for the 20w low?
ReplyDeleteI am watching the 3700-3750 area.
DeleteHi Krasi, are you short already or waiting for trigger?
DeleteI am short from the mid-December high and holding it. I will add more later when the current looks complete.
DeleteLast year in September there were comments how bad the situation is and how much lower the indices will fall - I answered 18m low and this chart https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61141166150
ReplyDeleteNow we have the opposite situation a lot of bullish calls even the Sentient trader guy trying to justify 4y cycle low.
What I see is indices close to 18m high and the indicator at overbought extreme. There is two options - in 2019 and 2020 this was the beginning of a new leg higher or it is just 18m high.... the price action does not confirm reversal. In the previous two occasions we have V-shape recovery 4 months later the decline is retraced now 4 months later we have retracement between the 38%-50% Fibo levels.... not convincing.
I would say the odds are higher that the indices are close to 18m high... several Fibo measurements point to 4150 which is 50% retracement.
Thanks Krasi
DeleteKrasi, looking at the long-term SPX topping price action, I could not help but see an eerie resemblance to the descending broadening formation depicted in CASE 2 at: https://www.centralcharts.com/en/gm/1-learn/7-technical-analysis/27-chart-patterns/504-descending-broadening-wedge. I was curious to your thoughts of the large similarity(ies) between said chart and the wedge pattern depicted in the cited article. Thanks much.
DeleteThis patterns as shown are expanding ending diagonal and expanding triangle.
DeleteFirst this patterns look good on paper, but nothing to do with reality. My opinion about expanding ED,LD,triangle is that there is higher probability to see flying unicorn farting rainbows.
Second SPX has different pattern - studyofcycles.blogspot.com guy tried to count expanding LD and the fifth wave failed - what a surprise.
Your thoughts are greatly appreciated.
DeleteDon't you think we are going to new ATH?
ReplyDeleteLMAO
DeleteNow SPX is close to 4200 and more bullish than expected, any change of the situation? Thanks. From weekly plot, it does seem more positive. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe change is the alternate scenario has been activated - the third chart labels "or A" "or B"
DeleteHow may that look on a shorter time frame? Thx
Deletehttps://invst.ly/-6gt3
Deleteweekly BB and 100ma combo at 4200, 18 monthly 4190. If it can get past all that I'd be surprised. Weekly hidden bear divergences quite strong here.
ReplyDeleteThe pattern looks more clear two waves of different degree reached equality... I will not be surprised if the 18m high is today.
ReplyDeleteAnd a chart - https://invst.ly/-6gt3
Deletethanks krasi, looks like somone wants out before aapl and amzn earnings
ReplyDeleteyesterday 20 days low?
ReplyDeleteNo Wednesday
DeleteUseless
ReplyDeleteDo you notice the comments - the market is bullish -> going to new ATH -> my analyses is useless
ReplyDeleteBig red light flashing already, the herd is blinded again.
There is higher high and a very nice canal, the ABC is in 4430 from the buttom
ReplyDeleteIt will change if they break the canal
ReplyDeleteYou are the perfect indicator for a top thank you for the contribution.
ReplyDeleteDecline 5.5 months is retraced 50% for 7.5 months is very bullish going to the moon.
The stupidity of the herd is endless.
I agree on the rather slow retracement we have seen in the US markets, but get a bit confused when trying to interpret the strength and more aggressive repricing in EU. Any input there?
ReplyDeleteProbably flat pattern more bullish compared with indices like NDX and SPX
Delete12400 a reasonable target for DAX?
DeleteYes
DeleteAnd more, this rally was a of c now b to 4950 then c, why you so angry
ReplyDeleteFor so many years you learned zero what is the point of answering and explaining.
DeleteI explain for months waves and cycles and what is the question - new ATH do not you think ?
This is repeating on every high it is just annoying....
2 weeks more going up for 18m high (4300) and 2 weeks going down for 20w low (3600) will be perfect
ReplyDeleteother option could be 2 weeks down (3800) for 20w low and 2 weeks up for 18m high (4300)
Delete500 points in two weeks? wtf would have to happen for that
DeleteWe should forget about the 20w low we will not see proper one.
DeleteWhy?
DeleteBecause it is moving for six 6 weeks higher and accelerated when it should make exactly the opposite in this time frame. It will not work to stick to the theory ..... at the end the Hurst cycle guys will pin it somewhere to justify some 20w low - probably insignificant low in the next weeks.
DeleteIt is better to focus on longer term cycle or use other tools for making decision at the moment .
Do you think yesterday was the high or has that changed?
ReplyDeleteYou'll have a better idea Monday
DeleteFor 20d cycle turn I am watching for close below the previous day open so something lower should have started. If it is the big reversal or one more high - we can say for sure after we say the decline next week.
Deletehi krasi, first i understand your frustration about lady s, unbearable to say the least.. for whatever it's worth i think we have one more high next week to finish w5 of wC before lights off. bears are about to get paid beginning second half of february. last week was indeed an irrelevant 20week low that will not even a be a blip in the big picture. we shall see. thank you for all your work.
ReplyDeleteJP
Useless, your analysis and you.
ReplyDeleteWhat difference is there between those who say that they are going to ath and you who say that they are going to the minimum of Covid.
You are also blinded, and for a long time.
waow frustration at its best! it's ok you must be stuck long for the past year:)) maybe a miracle will happen and you break even. cheers.
DeleteJP
The difference is not hanging long for two years and riding it lower to at least 3000, plus the time to retrace it you will not waste three years... I guess really not a big deal.
DeleteWhat is your opinion on XLE/oil?
ReplyDelete