Weekly preview

With the price action this week the question is what happens if the indeces continue higher - the answer is this will be the top of the B-wave and 18 month high. It makes more sense if this is still b/B-wave running maybe as sideways pattern. With so much "bullishness" the price retraced only 62% so far... on the other side we have market breadth indicators which are extremely overbought - strange if this occurs at the top of some lower degree b-wave.
We have to wait a few weeks for more clarity, but do not get exited and buy this "bullishness" - the question is how the correction the waves b-c/B will play out and not if we have reversal.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - questionable... lower until early February expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag higher which should complete soon.

Intermediate term - changed one of the options from flat to zig-zag(red). It is better to wait a few weeks before making conclusions... even higher high and completed B-wave is possible.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some extremely overbought, and some with possible divergence if we see higher high. The price is not showing even close such strength.
McClellan Oscillator - extremely overbought.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving higher, but below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving higher, above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - lower low, one point lower around 17.5 and it will hit the long term rising trendline from 2017.
Advance-Decline Issues - extremely overbought.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d high next week we should see something lower fot 20d low. If we have shorter 20d cycles this could be 10w high.

Week 13 for the 20w cycle. If you look at the weekly charts you will see 10 weeks beetween the last two lows - way too short for 20w low. I have seen shorter cycles 13-14 weeks, but 10 is too short. RSI crossed above the MA, but it is more likely this is sideways correction and not turn higher - not so rare two occasions shown on the chart.
The most obvious 18m low is in October, alternate in June if we have triangle B-wave.