Weekly preview

It did not last long we have the answer, the pattern looks clear - zig-zag lasting 4 months and close to 18m high.
Now the cycles are a mess:) where is the 20w low? - I doubt that we will see a clear one. Is this just a zig-zag or a bigger pattern starting in June - where to put the 18m low?
All this is important from cycle perspective to know where to start counting the next 18m cycle. It does not matter for the outcome - another zig-zag lower to complete 4y cycle low and the decline which started early 2022.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, time for the next high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - close to important high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - complex pattern from the last important low. There is many possible combinations I am showing this because it is in sync with DJI showing more simple pattern and second it is the most common pattern from the last several years - double zig-zag.

Intermediate term - the alternate scenario is playing out. I see leg lower 5.5 months and complex sideways correction which started in June.2022 lasting 7.5 months. Next waiting for the top and another zig-zag lower for 6-8 months.

How to try to fit cycles seaking 20w low - than you nead b/B wave as running/expanded flat(yellow). This does not make much sense because we have a/B lasting 7 weeks and b/b/B lasting 6 weeks. Short said we have rather two legs of the same degree than some sub-wave.
Another option is w4 of diagonal for wave C impulse and the whole pattern is flat from June.... but all this patterns ending diagonal running/expanded flat are rare - if we see it fine, but I would no bet on it before seeing it.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.
Interesting MACD reached the zero line and RSI the trend line.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - extremes and divergences, the indices are at important top.
McClellan Oscillator - divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - extreme overbought.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - hit the long term trend line starting in 2017.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 20d cycle low at day 9 or DJI showing again more simple picture.

Week 16 for 40w cycle starting in October.
Usually the cycle lows are at pattern lows so the 18m low should be in June. The first 18m cycle divides very good in two, the second 18m cycle divides very good in three and the third one looks like a mess. A guess in the moment - count one 20w cycle June-October, count 40w cycle October-April and one final 20w cycle. This will fit perfect with the pattern - like this .... or stick to the theory and try to find the 20w/40w low.