Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - close to important high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another corrective structure has been completed. Waiting to see the move lower to show us if we have reversal or not.
Intermediate term - waiting for the top and another zig-zag lower for 6 months. Either this is the top or one more high.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower some with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - moving lower after very overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - overbought level, trying to turn lower.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower and divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower and divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower and divergence.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - probably 20d high next week and maybe three shorter 20d cycles to complete 5w/10w/20w low.
Maybe we have the 20w cycle low in 1-2 weeks... focused on the longer cycles. The 40w cycle high is 26 weeks long so we should see one more 10w cycle.
Usually the cycle lows are at pattern lows so the 18m low should be in June. The first 18m cycle divides very good in two, the second 18m cycle divides very good in three and the third one looks like a mess - somewhere in the middle of it.
Today I got an email from Neely letting everyone know the bear market is ending. Should be a good couple of months ahead ☺️
ReplyDeleteAre you subscribed to his service? what are costs? how often do you get videos or notes from him?
DeleteThanks.
Subscribed years ago, wasn't worth it. They send emails trying to get people back with all kinds of predictions we just "have to know about!".
DeleteUpdated DJI chart - https://invst.ly/-9-em
ReplyDeleteIt lasted a while but it seems the last wave up is running.
In a few days the waves A and C will have the same length. - 2 months.
it looks like the C wave for the sp is ending up in a triangle. we may not see new highs. if we break down from here it's over. we will see.
ReplyDeleteJP
4160 spx is the line in the sand.
DeleteJP
4200 is the 20 ma monthly, the 100 weekly and the weekly Bollinger band. To me that's the line in the sand and I hope they cross over it so I can short that pop.
DeleteIt will for simplicity lets say we have impulses for a zig-zag - https://invst.ly/-alw8
DeleteI do not see the triangle for SP500 but DJI will not surprise me with this - https://invst.ly/-amjx
DeletePrice movement over the last few weeks resembles a bull market. I don't disagree about the 4 year low. I don't understand why you think bearishness is just around the corner.
ReplyDeletePrice movement over the last few weeks resembles a bull market - this is nonsense.
DeleteWhat is this statement based on?
Market breadth, risk assets (growth stocks/crypto/tsla,etc) ripping like its 2021, all dips getting bought, price above 200WMA/DMA, VIX crashing, etc
DeleteIt is always darkest before dawn ...
DeleteMarket breadth - wrote about market breadth, big up but price has not followed, just showing a top not a reversal.
Deleterisk assets (growth stocks/crypto/tsla,etc) ripping like its 2021 - after they have been hammered heavily nothing more than a correction.
all dips getting bought - normal at tops... great more fuel for the decline...
price above 200WMA/DMA - price is below MA20 monthly, 5 months up can not retrace 2 months down - weak
VIX crashing - VIX is in a long term uptrend this "crash" tested the trend line nothing more
This is how tops occur a lot of bullishness not when all are depressed.
Everything - market breadth, pattern, cycles confirm it there is nothing behind this bullishness.
People tend to forget the bad things, time cures. The market is flat for 8-9 months the trauma is forgotten
the final part of the correction up is the strongest and the euphoria is back.
Simple psychology... it has not declined for so long so the worst must be behind us....
Corrections consist of three moves this is the second so one more lower
Four year cycles are at least 3.5 years long so at least another 6 months before we see the low.
Simple analysis and logic not emotions.
Thanks for a detailed response Krasi!
Delete4160 spx held! if it holds next few days the top is in and a massacre will follow into late march that will wake up the delisusional bulls..
ReplyDeleteJP
One more high second half of March - cycles and pattern will not be complete with reversal now.
DeleteFor a top watch NDX around 13300 it has perfect Fibo measurements - https://invst.ly/-b16s
Expecting the "b" low early next week?
DeleteIt is difficult to nail the day so far the short cycle runs 8 days so 7-9 days is Tuesday/WednesdayThursday
DeleteThx! Perhaps down to 4000 on ES
Delete