Trading trigger - sell signal, declining into daily cycle low.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - a few weeks to important high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the pattern is taking shape double zig-zag.... what a surprise the same pattern is repeating in the last few years.Alternate you can count ED for wave-C to complete flat correction from the June low.
Intermediate term - waiting for the top and another zig-zag lower for roughly 6 months. I expect the high in 4-5 weeks.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - moving lower, based on cycles and pattern the top is not in.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high and now declining into 20d low which should complete 10w cycle low.
Maybe 20w cycle low next week? Watching the 40w cycle high - it is 27 weeks long so we should see one more 10w cycle high.
Usually the cycle lows are at pattern lows so the 18m low should be in June. The first 18m cycle divides very good in two, the second 18m cycle divides very good in three and the third one looks like a mess - somewhere in the middle of it.
Your prediction on what the Fed will do was so damn accurate!
ReplyDeleteDid he do the prediction?
DeleteI do not remember making some prediction about FED actions.
DeleteUsually I do not care because it does not mater.
You had predicted that they are not going to stop hiking rates anytime soon.
DeleteWhat price level on the downside would invalidate the view that this does not look like a reversal yet?
ReplyDeleteIf it is bigger or longer than the previous decline in December.
DeleteThis means the move is of a higher degree.
Ok, thank you
DeleteKrasi, would wave b/Y still invalidate the December low for a reversal if it is bigger or longer than said decline WITHOUT b/Y making a lower low than December? Many thanks.
DeleteI do not understand the question.....
DeleteFor reversal the price should move below the last low in fact faster which means less than 26 days.
I was trying to confirm that (in the short-term chart above) wave c/Y would not take place as shown if b/Y progressed to a reversal versus a correction. And this would be depicted/confirmed by b/Y falling below December '22 low. Anyway, no worries. Sorry for my obtuseness.
DeletePerhaps hitting that 20d/10w low today already...
ReplyDeleteMore likely retracement today and final spike lower tomorrow.
DeleteWe're at a lot of ma support on daily and weekly and the 4hr rsi is on the floor.
DeleteA bounce is coming in the next couple of days. The question is do we see new highs over 4200 spx.. i doubt it. Again 4160 was and still is the wall. The bounce may be short lived. A massacre is underway that will finally wake up the delusional bulls. We will see
ReplyDeleteJP
This close at the lows is a bad sign - weakness. Yes we should see a bounce to reset some indicators which fits very good with cycles.
DeleteIf this weakness continues for a few more days some kind of double top slightly higher/lower high is very likely.
The pattern from the October low it could be triangle for the Y-wave than definitely we should see lower high 4100-4150
Deletekrasi, could a mid-april low be an important hurst cycle low say a 40week low? thanks for all your work.
DeleteJP
Yes, if October.2022 is 18m low. It could not be ruled out... I am wondering if we saw a/B and b/B has started with expected low April/May.
Deletethank you! that is my thinking as well that b/B has started.
DeleteSorry, bit confused here. Mind sharing a graph of that scenario?
DeleteSomething like this - https://invst.ly/-cw61
DeleteFlat is shown but it can be anything zig-zag, triangle, combination...
Thank you!
ReplyDeleteThink we continue down from here, not be expecting much of a retrace to 4100 now?
ReplyDelete