Nov 19, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

I have not guessed the real path of the short term moves but the plan stays the same - short term bottom around the end of November and moving higher in December.
The market is consistent in one thing - the most probable outcome fails. Everybody were focus on the triangle and it has failed:) Now everybody are so bearish expecting a crash. How high are the odds when everybody expect a crash with VIX at 32 and it actually happens? - very low if you ask me.

I am expecting some kind of a bottom and a rally in December with max target the resistance zone around 1300-1310. Why?
- MACD is reseting, nearing the trend line and the zero line. It should touch them next week.
- Histogram is reseting and reached the average trough low.
- The move is corrective. It has nothing to do with impulse or trend move.
If I am wrong - plunge through support 1190 and MA50 with first targets 1175 and 1140

Possible short term moves. Wait for the open on Monday. Usually the Thanksgiving week is positive. If the indexes open lower see the chart bellow. If the indexes open higher probably moving higher Monday to Wednesday than red days Friday and Monday next week. Just invert the chops.
Support is 76 points measured move ~1200 and 50% retracement ~1187. I will start to worry when this levels are decisively breached. Till then I stay bullish for December.

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