May 14, 2011

Longer term view

My longer term view is that a correction of higher degree is the next move.
Support levels - first level between ~11700 and ~11600 points second support level around 10750 points.
Weekly chart - MACD divergence and the Histogram triple divergence.
The Market breadth indicators are diverging - Bullish percentage, SPX500 Percentage of stocks above MA50, NYSE McClellan Summation index.
Look at the weekly chart of DJ hitting the upper trend channel... for fourth or fifth time. Ask yourself after such strong rise and this indicators do you expect the indexes to accelerate into even steeper channel breaking the upper channel boundary.
That is too much for me to be a bull for the next several months.

That does not mean the correction will start tomorrow. Topping takes usually some time. On the chart bellow I am showing to possible scenarios if we break the triangle on the upside or downside. I expect that we will see new marginal high, but scenario 2 is equally probable - look at the MACD and the Histogram pointing down. Let the market show us the direction next week.
If I am wrong we will continue crawling along the upper trend channel boundary on the weekly chart (scenario 3), but I personally will play the last move up so do not think I will miss something:)

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